Odessa, the next strategic target for the Russians

Sandbags pile up in front of the barricaded Odessa Opera House. In Ukraine’s third largest city, which had around 1 million inhabitants before the war, the population is preparing for a Russian attack. No one can predict when it will take place, but following taking the city of Kherson on Thursday, March 3, located regarding a hundred kilometers as the crow flies, the Russian offensive seems to be gaining ground inexorably.

Founded at the end of the 18th century by the will of the Russian Tsarina Catherine II, Odessa is an atypical port city, with architecture of Mediterranean influence. She was “created according to a Greek imagination”, explains Adrien Nonjon, doctoral student in history at the Europe Eurasia Research Center (CREE). Located on the shore of the Black Sea, Odessa “is a cosmopolitan environment”he describes, although the Russian influences are strong there.

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In Odessa, as in the south-eastern regions of Ukraine, a large part of the population is Russian-speaking, and the city has been attracting many Russians on holiday for several centuries.

The return of New Russia

This might be the first reason for a Russian invasion. “There is a symbolic dimension: Odessa is in the Russian imagination a Russian port and is part of what they call Novorossia (New Russia)aiming at the reunification of the Russian-speaking populations of Ukraine”, explains Olivier Kempf, researcher at the Strategic Research Foundation. This idea, dating from the time of Catherine II, was notably taken up by certain Ukrainian separatists in 2014, even if the project never came to fruition.

By seizing Odessa, Vladimir Putin might register this close link with Russia in a geographical reality. This is what Olivier Kempf imagines. “The objective is also to establish territorial continuity from Russia to the south of Bessarabia (south of Moldova, editor’s note)traditionally considered a zone of Russian influence”, he describes.

The junction with Transnistria, a Moldavian region with an almost independent and pro-Russian status, might then take place. “There is a desire to reconstitute this region of New Russia which briefly existed under Catherine II and her successors”, abounds Adrien Nonjon. But the Russian head of state might decide to go even further. “Incidentally, the Russian challenge is also to arrive at the mouth of the Danube and therefore to have there a possible means of pressure on the Europeans, because we would be in direct contact with Romania”, says Olivier Kempf.

Increase Russian influence on the Black Sea

In the Russian equation, we must not forget the economic component. It is through the port area of ​​Odessa that most Ukrainian maritime trade passes. “Russia and Ukraine are the main wheat exporters in the world”, says Olivier Kempf. Occupying Odessa is for the Russians “a way to embarrass the Ukrainians and take control of the Ukrainian wheat export route”. Other raw materials linked to Ukraine, such as sunflower oil, coal or oil are also very dependent on the port of Odessa.

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For Vladimir Putin, the capture of Odessa and its region is equivalent to “taking control of the entire northern shore of the Black Sea and thus simplifying the Russian hold on this sea, which it shares mainly with Turkey and a little Georgia on one side, and with Romania and Bulgaria on the other “, assures Olivier Kempf. According to Adrien Nonjon, “What guides Russia in trying to take Odessa at all costs is to definitively deprive NATO of access to the Black Sea”.