2023-11-13 12:00:00
The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will release this Monday the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October 2023. It will be the last data that the organization will release before the runoff this Sunday, November 19 between Javier Milei and Sergio Massa . The figure will be between 9 and 10 percent, according to previous surveys, but it will rise once more in the number of November.
Inflation for October 2023, which will be known at 4 p.m. this Monday, November 13, slowed to 9.8%, according to the latest report from the Institute of Workers Statistics (IET). The cost of living in the City of Buenos Aires, along the same lines, was 9.4%.
Prices slowed down 1.7 points compared to September values, according to IET, while “inflation reached 120.4% in the first ten months of the year.” Interannual inflation (calculated once morest the same month of the previous year) “reached 146%.”
Inflation rose 2.3% in the first week of November, according to the index measured by Massa
“The slowdown in inflation in October is explained by the freezing of prices of the official dollar and regulated prices (such as public services). However, it persists at very high levels, as a result of the greater nominal value and inertia derived from the exchange rate jump following the primary elections in August,” the IET analysts point out.
According to specialists, October inflation was driven firstly by the Education category, which rose 15.1%, driven by increases in private schools and secondly, Housing rose 12.6%, driven by increases in rent, water and construction materials.
Other items with double-digit increases were Communications, which rose 12%, Home equipment and maintenance (11.9%) and Health (10.6%), while Recreation and culture rose slightly above the general level, with 9 .9%.
Below the average were Other goods and services (9.2%), Food and beverages (8.9%), Clothing and footwear (7.7%) and Transportation (5.7%).
Hot start to November in Food and Drinks
Regarding the projections for the penultimate month of the year, the consultants surveyed the first week of November in Food and Beverages and an acceleration in prices is noted.
With the end of the price agreements negotiated following PASO and with the uncertainty imposed by the electoral panorama, some producers are beginning to hedge.
The consulting firm Eco Go measured weekly inflation of 5.1% – an acceleration in the margin of 2.8 pp in food and beverages. Inflation of food consumed at home in November would reach 13.2% monthly. For the next few weeks they project between 1.5% and 3.5% weekly for the remainder of the month. If food consumed outside the home (13.3%) is also considered, food inflation would reach 13.2% during November.
Meanwhile, the general inflation index would thus be at 12.2% monthly, rising once more compared to October projections.
From Eco Go they maintain that “although the data is still preliminary, it marks the rhythm of a month that is projected to be complex both due to the end of the price agreements that led essential products such as gasoline, meat, etc. to the rise, and due to the search for coverage once morest the uncertainty generated by the presidential definition – continuity or rupture – in a context of high volatility.
For its part, LCG measured inflation in food and beverages for the first week of November of 2.1% monthly, accumulating 9% in the last four weeks. In this way, they explain that average inflation continues to accelerate 0.9 percentage points compared to last week, with meats explaining 3.07 points of the 9 percentage points of increase.
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