2023-08-07 13:31:12
Between a fragile legal framework, the fear of a regional conflagration and a deeply divided West African bloc, a possible armed intervention by ECOWAS, a threat brandished against the putschists in Niger, comes up against many obstacles.
After the end of the ultimatum issued to the putschists in Niamey, ECOWAS at the time of choices. Far from complying with the demands of the West African bloc and Westerners calling for a return to constitutional order in Niger, the Nigerien military announced on Monday, August 7, the closure of the country’s airspace “in the face of the threat of intervention which becomes clearer from neighboring countries”.
“We do not see for the moment any signs of an imminent attack after the end of the ultimatum”, specifies however Serge Daniel, the correspondent of France 24 in Benin, according to whom “the junta communicates and seeks to mobilize the population” .
On Monday morning, Niamey woke up peacefully the day after a show of force by nearly 30,000 military supporters who gathered in Niger’s biggest stadium in the capital.
Last week, the Chiefs of Defense of ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West African States, announced that they had drawn up a plan for a possible military intervention in Niger, if President Mohamed Bazoum, who says he was taken hostage, was not resettled by Sunday.
Balance of power
“ECOWAS is playing its credibility here because it was relatively weak vis-à-vis the coups in Mali and Burkina Faso, it can no longer afford to be,” said General Dominique Trinquand, former chief of the French military mission to the United Nations, on the antenna of France 24.
According to the newspaper Le Monde, nearly 50,000 soldiers could be mobilized within the ECOWAS countries including Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire and Benin. On the other hand, Chad, an important African military power and neighboring country of Niger, has already indicated that it will not participate in any intervention.
N’Djamena “will never intervene militarily. We have always advocated dialogue. Chad is a facilitator”, declared, Sunday evening, Daoud Yaya Brahim, the Minister of Defense of this country which is not a member of the ECOWAS.
For their part, the putschists in Niamey promised an “immediate response” to “any aggression”. On the other hand, direct aid from their counterparts in Mali and Burkina Faso, allies of the new junta in Niger, seems unlikely, according to General Trinquand.
“Mali and Burkina Faso have enough to do with the jihadists not to have forces to devote to Niger”, assures the expert. “The balance of power therefore leans very clearly in favor of the West African organization”.
However, the Malian army announced on Monday the dispatch to Niamey by Mali and Burkina Faso of a joint official delegation in “solidarity” with Niger.
In scattered order
But the military option is currently coming up against strong resistance from several neighbors of Niamey. Algeria, which shares nearly 1,000 km of borders with Niger, has in particular expressed strong reservations about intervention. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune assured on public television that an intervention would be “a direct threat” to his country. “There will be no solution without us (Algeria)”, he added, fearing that “the whole Sahel (not) will ignite” in the event of intervention.
“We must prevent the catastrophic scenario of a war”, alerted for its part a group of researchers, specialists in the Sahel, in a column published on Saturday in the French daily Release. “One more war in the Sahel will have only one winner: the jihadist movements which for years have been building their territorial expansion on the bankruptcy of states,” they write.
Read alsoNiger: “Against jihadism, Niamey had no better allies than Paris and Washington”
Even in Nigeria, the great military power of ECOWAS with its 200,000 men and locomotive of a possible armed intervention in Niger, voices are being raised to criticize the warlike tendencies of President Bola Tinubu.
On Friday evening, senators from the north of the country, faced with violence from Boko Haram and various armed groups, worried about Nigeria’s involvement before the largest opposition coalition raged against a “no only useless, but irresponsible”.
“For several days, calls from the political class have multiplied to ask ECOWAS to favor negotiation. Despite a majority in his boot, President Tinubu knows that he will have a lot to do to obtain the approval of the Senate for engage Nigerian soldiers in an intervention force in Niger”, analyzes Moïse Gomis, the France 24 correspondent in Abuja.
Last resort
“These political postures will however have no short-term impact if the heads of state of ECOWAS decide to intervene”, assures Jérôme Pigné, president and co-founder of the network of strategic reflection on the antenna of France 24. “It is normal for the president to seek the opinion of the Senate, but in his Constitution President Tinubu has measures through which he can intervene on behalf of the regional bloc”.
However, even if ECOWAS managed to gather the necessary forces to intervene in Niger, the question of the legal framework for such an intervention would remain. Due to the Russian veto, it seems impossible for West African countries to obtain a mandate from the UN Security Council that would strengthen the legitimacy of a military operation, as in 2017 in The Gambia.
See alsoECOWAS sanctions: “it will be difficult for the people of Niger to show resilience”
Niger, the largest country in the region in terms of area and home to 25 million people, also appears to be a completely different logistical challenge than the modest Gambia and its 2.6 million inhabitants.
If the hypothesis of a military intervention remains on the table, it still appears as a risky option and a last resort. “We must postpone the option of war as much as possible,” said the Italian Foreign Minister on Monday in an interview published by the daily The print emphasizing that “the only way out is diplomatic”.
Beyond continuing negotiations with the putschists, a third way would be “to destabilize the junta which, inside Niger, does not have everyone’s consent”, advances General Trinquand.
“The putschists do not hold Niamey in terms of support from the various armed corps: the presidential guard, the national guard and the army”, judge Jérôme Pigné. “We recently saw the putschists want to shelter their families. This means that they feel threatened”.
1691415980
#Niger #uncertain #armed #response #expiry #ECOWAS #ultimatum