O. Scholz has good news for Ukraine

U.S. intelligence has named startling numbers: how many soldiers did Russia lose during the war?

Russia lost 87 percent. of all the active-duty ground forces it had before the invasion of Ukraine and two-thirds of the tanks it had before the invasion, a source familiar with the declassified US intelligence assessment submitted to Congress told CNN.

Still, despite the heavy loss of life and equipment, Russian President Vladimir Putin is determined to press ahead with the two-year anniversary of the war early next year, and US officials warn that Ukraine remains highly vulnerable. Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive in the fall has stalled, and U.S. officials believe Kyiv is unlikely to make any major gains in the coming months.

The assessment, sent to Capitol Hill on Monday, comes as some Republicans oppose additional US funding for Ukraine and the Biden administration has launched an all-out push to get additional funding approved by Congress.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in Washington for meetings with US lawmakers and President Joe Biden in a desperate bid to secure the military and economic aid he says is vital to Ukraine’s continued fight against Russia.

Despite heavy losses, Russia has been able to continue hostilities by relaxing recruitment standards and using Soviet-era stockpiles of older equipment. Still, the assessment said the war “severely halted Russia’s 15-year effort to modernize its ground forces.”

Of the 360,000 troops that arrived in Ukraine, including conscripts, Russia lost 315,000 on the battlefield, according to the estimate. Of the 3,500 tanks, an estimated 2,200 were lost. 4,400 of the 13,600 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers were also destroyed, or 32 percent. losses.

Reuters/Scanpix photo/Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Joe Biden

“Since the end of November, Russia has lost more than a quarter of its pre-invasion stockpile of ground forces equipment,” the assessment reads. “This has reduced Russia’s offensive operations, which from 2022 the complexity and scale of greater achievements in Ukraine have not been achieved since the beginning.”

CNN has reached out to the Russian Embassy in Washington for comment.

However, perhaps the biggest danger for Ukraine is the political environment in Washington. Some Republicans strongly reject any additional funding, while Senate Republicans are insisting that it be part of a broader spending package that would include money for Israel, Taiwan and the U.S. southern border. The Biden administration warns that the US will soon run out of money for Ukraine.

“The idea that Ukraine will throw Russia back to 1991. borders, was absurd,” Sen. JD Vance, Republican of Ohio, said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “So we’re saying to the president, and really to the world, you need to articulate what the aspiration is.” What 61 billion dollars will help achieve what 100 billion did not. dollars?”

Other newly declassified intelligence previously reported by CNN shows that, according to a National Security Council spokesman, “Russia appears to believe that a military stalemate over the winter will drain Western support for Ukraine and ultimately give Russia an advantage despite Russian losses and continued lack of trained personnel, ammunition and equipment’.

“We estimate that since October, when the offensive began, the Russian military has suffered more than 13,000 casualties in the Avdijivka and Novopavlovka sector and lost more than 220 combat vehicles – equipment alone equivalent to the combat equipment of 6 maneuver battalions,” a spokeswoman for the NST told CNN Adrienne Watson.

According to the CIA, before the invasion Russia’s standing army totaled about 900,000 active-duty troops, including ground, airborne, special operations and other uniformed personnel. Since the start of the invasion, Russia has announced plans to increase the size of its armed forces to 1.5 million. The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced several rounds of conscription, including the regular autumn conscription cycle on October 1.

The latest reported death toll is significantly higher than the one reported in July 2022. At the time, CIA director Bill Burns said that US intelligence estimated Russian losses to be “about 15,000.” dead and maybe three times as many wounded.”

Both Russia and Ukraine avoid providing figures for war casualties.