Heading into the international break, Nuno Espirito Santo will no doubt be feeling an interesting mix of pleasure and disappointment.
In the first three games of the Premier League season, their 53 shots on target against Nottingham Forest are the most in the division, followed by Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool (all 48).
Forest’s 21 shots on target are also the most in the league. They have picked up five points so far, but have created enough chances to claim a bigger share of the spoils.
However, while Manchester City have scored 9 goals, Liverpool 7 and Tottenham 6, Forest have only scored three goals in three games.
“The numbers show that we produce a lot,” Nuno said. “The numbers show that we are. But we only scored three goals and had (more than) 50 shots on goal. This is not good. The numbers are very positive. But now we have to work on the final details.”
A team of just five players scored 78 per cent of Nottingham Forest’s 49 Premier League goals last season.
Chris Wood (14), Callum Hudson-Odoi (eight), Taiwo Awoni (six), Anthony Elanga (five) and Morgan Gibbs-White (five) scored 38 goals for Forest. No other player contributed more than two goals.
Forest were the fourth-worst scorers in the division last season. Only Burnley (41), Everton (40) and Sheffield United (35) scored fewer goals.
This summer, unsurprisingly, one of the priorities has been to add an attacking threat, both through recruitment and through some adjustments to the tactical approach. The early signs are, in some ways, very positive, as Forest have played with more attacking ambition.
Last season they took 451 shots in 38 Premier League games, an average of 11.9 per game. To put that into context, only five teams, including the three relegated sides, averaged fewer. And Forest averaged just 3.9 shots per game in 2023-24.
Wood struck against the Wolves last weekend (David Rogers/Getty Images)
But in their three league games this season, Forest are averaging 17.7 shots per game and seven on target per game. The slight problem is that these numbers translate into just eight “big chances” identified by Opta and an expected goals (xG) figure of 4.79 (Manchester City lead with an xG of 7.11).
However, there is still plenty of room for optimism, and that is because there are signs that the forest may be heading in the right direction in solving one of its biggest challenges.
Wood has continued his impressive form under Nuno, taking his tally to 13 in 19 games under the Portuguese manager, with two in three games this season. Forest’s search for support for Wood and Avoni could end in disappointment before transfer deadline day. But it still looked like a good window.
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Six of the nine new faces in the Forest squad are men who, in theory, Nuno’s side should bring more than just progress. Even a seventh centre-back, Nikola Milenkovic, was brought in, at least in part because it was felt his aerial ability could strengthen Forest at set-pieces at either wing.
Certainly Forest no longer have to rely on five players to provide their goalscoring threat.
James Ward-Prowse scored 7 goals and provided 7 assists for West Ham last season after signing from Southampton a year ago. Before that, he easily reached double figures for goalscoring contributions (goals and assists) in his previous three campaigns at Southampton. The 43 chances he created with his brilliant passes were more than any other player in the Premier League last season.
His record on this front is remarkably consistent. In the previous four seasons, Ward-Prowse created 43, 45, 41 and 41 chances for Southampton. That was more than any player in the division in three of those five seasons.
Forest fans need hardly be reminded that this was a major problem for the team last season: they scored just seven goals from free-kicks and corners. Only Sheffield United (six), Crystal Palace (five) and Burnley (five) did less.
Ward-Prowse’s track record suggests Forest could not have made a better signing to address the problem. However, even before he played for the club, Forest had already scored two goals.
Elliott Anderson gave a glimpse of his personal transfer quality when the £15m ($19.6m) signing from Newcastle United scored two regular goals in a 4-3 friendly win at Olympiacos, and a corner. His eminence was brought down by Wood’s powerful home side to put Forest ahead of the rest. While Morgan Gibbs-White’s winner at Southampton came after the home side had failed to properly clear a corner.
Anderson’s dominant performances in the last three games (including against Newcastle in the Carabao Cup) have offered a glimpse of his considerable potential.
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That game also saw Jota Silva thunder under the bar for his first Forest goal. The winger has already made a big impression since his £5.9m switch. While Paraguay international Ramon Sosa emerged as one of Argentine football’s brightest talents when he joined Talleres in a £10m deal.
Over the past year in South American football, Sosa averaged 0.74 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes from receiving players, which puts him in the 95th percentile among his peers (top five percent), according to Fbref. His free throw average of 0.95 puts him in the top one percent, and his shots per game average of 3.72 also puts him in the top one percent.
His 0.56 goals per 90 average last year put him in the top four percent, but even more impressive is his 0.23 goals per shot average which puts him back in the top one percent.
The arrival of Sosa and Jota Silva will keep Elanga and Hudson-Odoi on their toes. Even the addition of two defenders was made this summer to give Forest more attacking options: Alex Moreno, 31, and Eric Moreira, 18, are keen to move on.
Moreno plays against Newcastle in the Carabao Cup (MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Moreno is a player who likes to carry the ball out wide and has no qualms about shooting in the final third. His average of 0.17 goals per 90 minutes last year puts him in the top three per cent of his peers.
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Moreira only made one appearance for St. Pauli in Germany’s second division before joining Forest. So while he won the U-17 World Cup and the U-17 European Championship for Germany, his first-team experience was limited.
However, he quickly made a big impression on his new Forest teammates and immediately looked like he belonged at their level, highlighting his experience as a winger when on the ball. Forest will be patient with him as he adapts, but his performances in pre-season and on the training ground have already shown he can be a useful asset.
With Ola Aina and Neko Williams, Forest already had two full-backs with plenty of attacking ambition. But now, on both sides of the pitch, they have real competition and quality.
It means Nuno will be disappointed that Forest have not scored more goals this season. However, if his side can continue to attack, the manager believes last season’s goalscoring problems could soon be a thing of the past.
