Text / Lin Hongda
At this moment, on the football field in Qatar, the theme song “Tukoh Taka” resounded through the sky, and the enthusiastic fans roared with all their might. The 4-year World Cup once again attracted the attention of billions of fans around the world.
According to the analysis of Caixun, it is a pity that only football is popular. The wave of TV consumption that was originally expected to be brought about by the World Cup will only bring limited business opportunities to the panel industry this time. However, the panel industry may officially bottom out in the first half of next year. At the same time, the next new business opportunity in the display industry is gradually sprouting from places that most people would not expect.
“Financial News” reported that this year, the global panel industry has been affected by the rising inventory of consumer electronics, and panel prices have dropped frequently. In the third quarter of this year, almost all major panel companies handed over their loss report cards. In this quarter, China’s BOE turned from profit to loss, falling into a loss for the first time in six years. South Korea’s LG, Taiwan Innolux, AUO, China’s TCL, and Caihong also all reported losses.
4K rebound TV panels will bottom out
According to the “Financial News” report, inspecting the status of various fields in the panel industry is helpful to understand the overall status of the consumer electronics industry. According to a Bloomberg Intelligence survey, global panel makers’ production cuts in the past two quarters will gradually take effect. In September this year, the global LCD TV panel shipment area fell by 4.5% compared with the same period last year; in August, the TV panel shipment area only fell by 1.8% compared with last year, but by October this year, the panel price of the mainstream 4K TV panel finally rebounded , Up 1.2% from the same period last year, the first rise in 15 months, TV panel prices have the opportunity to slowly bottom out.
At the same time, “Financial News” reported that Bloomberg Intelligence also warned that the panels used in computers and notebooks will still experience a double-digit recession next year due to weak demand. Risks loom. Therefore, in August this year, after the global information panel shipment area fell by 23.7% compared with the same period last year, in September, the information panel shipment area still fell by 23.1% compared with the same period last year, and the price of high-end information panels in October also fell by 2.4% compared with the same period last year. %.
As for mobile phones, Bloomberg Intelligence pointed out that the global mobile phone market fell by 6% compared with last year, and the global mobile phone market size is about 513 billion U.S. dollars this year. The mobile phone market will grow only slightly by 1%, to $517 billion. Next year’s mobile phone shipments will be about 1.3 billion units, which is slightly lower than the pre-epidemic level of about 1.4 billion units. It seems that the overall demand for mobile phone panels is unlikely to grow significantly.
However, “Financial News” analysis, in the economic downturn, the speed of technological replacement will accelerate. A number of research institutions pointed out that the market share of OLED panels will increase rapidly, and companies that deploy OLED technology early will be the first to grow.
Xiao Shenglun, an analyst at DIGITIMES, observes that although the notebook market is relatively saturated, Apple has started to switch to OLED panels for high-end models, which will drive notebook manufacturers to switch to OLED panels in large numbers, and the penetration rate of OLED in the notebook market will rise to 17%. The replacement speed of amorphous silicon panels will accelerate, and the proportion will drop to 66% in 2027.”
Folding mobile phone shipments will surge next year
According to “Financial News” report, Trendforce recently released a report stating that the penetration rate of OLED panels in mobile phones will be 47% in 2022, will reach 50.8% next year, and will exceed 60% in 2026; this is because Apple phones still use LCD except for the SE series Panels, and the rest have fully adopted OLED panels, making other manufacturers also begin to use OLED panels in large quantities in high-end mobile phones.
In addition, “Financial News” reported that Samsung’s foldable mobile phones using flexible OLED panels are gradually being accepted by the market this year, creating functions that LCD panels cannot provide. It is estimated that the global sales of foldable mobile phones will reach 12.8 million units this year. In addition, China is desperately catching up with South Korean manufacturers in panel technology, and Lu’s manufacturers are gradually able to reduce the cost of flexible OLED panels to a level close to that of rigid OLED panels. In the future, we will see many Chinese mid-range mobile phones using flexible OLED panels. Trendforce predicts that next year, global foldable mobile phone shipments will reach 18.5 million units, an annual growth rate of 44.5%.
Trendforce also predicts that the penetration rate of OLED panels will gradually increase due to the decrease in cost and the increase in production capacity, regardless of whether they are used in low-priced mobile phones or high-end folding mobile phones. However, traditional LTPS LCDs will face a decline in demand for mobile phones and will be transferred to other uses such as industrial control. status.
Therefore, among Taiwan’s panel driver makers, manufacturers that have laid out OLED technology early, such as Radiant, are relatively resistant to falling stock prices, and Novatek, the leader in driver ICs, is also actively promoting progress in the OLED market. The role played by Taiwan’s driver IC factory in China’s OLED supply chain is worthy of continued observation by investors.
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