The inclusion of former president Carlos Menem in the newly inaugurated Hall of Heroes at the Casa Rosada is not a coincidence. A significant portion of the current government, including its political approach, international alignment, and judicial policies, bears a strong resemblance to Menem’s administration. In terms of economic policies, the government appears willing to adopt Menem’s strategies. In fact, President Javier Milei stated in 2020 that “Menem’s first government was the best government in history… due to everything Cavallo did in the Ministry of Economy.”
During the 1989 presidential campaign, following rumors linking him to Amalia Yuyito González, Menem summarized his agenda by promising a “salary increase and a productive revolution.” After assuming office, he swiftly initiated this productive revolution through an ambitious plan of deregulation, trade liberalization, privatization, and reduction of public spending. The promised salary increase only materialized after the announcement of the Convertibility Plan in April 1991, which led to a consumption rise of more than 10% annually within two years of its implementation.
Currently, Federico Sturzenegger oversees the implementation of the productive revolution in the government. Although it is a more limited version compared to Menem’s, it encompasses similar foundational elements: privatization, deregulation, market opening, and the downsizing of the state. However, salary increases have been nonexistent during the initial months of this administration. The combination of a significant devaluation, a sharp drop in public spending, increased taxes, and the liquidation of assets has hindered this.
As documented by scholars like Martin Uribe from Columbia University, all inflation stabilization programs centered on an exchange rate anchor have shown strong consumption growth, especially for durable goods like appliances and vehicles, along with an appreciation of the real exchange rate in their initial stages. Several factors may explain this phenomenon. One reason is that inflation acts as a tax, and by lowering this tax, resources become available for consumption. Additionally, when uncertainty regarding the duration of exchange rate and inflation stabilization prevails, consumers tend to capitalize on this by escalating their spending on durable goods, which tend to follow the exchange rate closely. Others argue that when the exchange rate stabilizes, interest rates decline rapidly; however, if inflationary expectations take longer to adjust—a scenario arising from a credibility deficit—the real interest rate (adjusted for inflation) drops significantly, thus encouraging consumption.
Currently, conditions appear more favorable for initiating a limited salary increase. Most of the initial fiscal adjustments have already been completed, and the government is set to reduce taxes with the decrease in the PAIS tax. Salaries, when measured in dollars, have largely recovered from the losses incurred due to the December devaluation, and since May, credit in pesos has been increasing at rates significantly higher than inflation.
Moreover, under this disinflationary program centered around an exchange rate anchor, the peso has become relatively expensive against the dollar, resulting in cheaper prices for dollarized products, such as durable goods, in terms of wages. A recent update of The Economist’s Big Mac Index indicated that Argentina went from having one of the cheapest hamburgers in the world in December to having the fourth most expensive one, after Switzerland, Uruguay, and Norway, by June of this year.
Furthermore, two factors may lead to decreased prices for imported goods and supplies in the coming months. In September, the COUNTRY tax, an import surcharge, will decrease from 17.5% to 7.5%. Recently, the Central Bank (BCRA) has also cut the payment period for most imports from four months to two, and for cars from 180 to 90 days. Consequently, some importers who previously opted for cash payments via liquidation (CCL), which are more costly than the official dollar, will now proceed through the official market (MULC).
With a delayed exchange rate and uncertainty about when the exchange rate restrictions will be lifted—potentially leading to a spike in the exchange rate and, therefore, an increase in the prices of highly dollarized goods—the opportune moment may be now. If it has not already begun, increased salaries and consumption of durable goods are likely on the verge of starting. Data on car registrations shows a production of 42,892 units in July, compared to an average of 32,881 units per month during the second quarter, suggesting that this uptick has already initiated.
This surge in durable goods consumption will likely enhance industrial activity and GDP levels, as Argentina has a relatively closed market for imports, meaning many of these products will be sourced from local manufacturers. This should also positively influence the President’s popularity. However, there are costs associated with this development.
Primarily, although many goods are locally produced, they contain a significant percentage of imported components. According to research by ECYT-AR, it is estimated that 75% of the components used in the technology industry are imported from Tierra del Fuego. Regarding automobiles, a study published by Cenital indicates that the imported components exceed 60%.
The increase in durable goods consumption will consequently raise import levels in the coming months, exerting additional pressure on international reserves. These reserves increased by only $4.3 billion so far in 2024 but fell by $1.64 billion since the end of June, now standing at a lower level than at the end of January. Moreover, net reserves, which turned positive in May after several months, reverted to negative, nearing $4.5 billion in the red by the end of July.
The government is negotiating with banks to secure loans, including $1 billion from Santander, as reported by Bloomberg last week, and discussions are ongoing with a Chinese company, as indicated by Florencia Donovan in LA NACION on Friday. However, dollar bond creditors are keen to see reserves rise through genuine increases rather than financial maneuvers, and they may express dissatisfaction if imports escalate.
There are additional indicators that might suggest this mini-consumption boom is merely a manifestation of an excessively expansionary monetary policy. It all began with the last reduction in the monetary policy rate from 50% to 40% annually, enacted by the BCRA on May 14. Following this, pressure on the exchange rate gap intensified, which could only be controlled through a government intervention announcement made on July 13.
It’s worth recalling that the intervention announcement coincided with statements suggesting a tightening of the monetary policy, indicated by Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s assertion that the quantity of pesos would remain constant. The BCRA later clarified that this objective referred to the Broad Monetary Base, which includes not only circulating pesos but also the remunerated liabilities of the BCRA existing as of April 30, 2024. This leaves considerable room for the monetary base to expand. In fact, it did grow by 9.4% since the mid-July announcement, surpassing seasonal expectations for the period.
Another phenomenon indicating that monetary policy may be overly expansionary is inflation. Data released by the city of Buenos Aires for July raised concerns, not just because inflation accelerated from 4.82% in June to 5.1% in July—partly driven by seasonal price movements—but also due to the significant inertia seen in core inflation measures that align more closely with the economic cycle. Core inflation, calculated similarly to the United States—excluding energy and food—was 5.86%, up from 4.12% in May and 4.37% in June. Additionally, the inflation rate for non-tradable goods, excluding regulated services, rose from 4.65% in June to 6.85% in July. It remains to be seen what the national inflation figures from Indec will reveal, but expectations for rates below 4% per month have been abandoned.
If monetary policy was indeed too expansive, the BCRA would need to increase interest rates. This could help narrow the gap and make credit more costly, aiding in price moderation; however, it could simultaneously jeopardize some of the wage increases. The government, which is structurally pushing forward with an impressive program, must still navigate the complexities of monetary and exchange rate policies. Otherwise, it risks making the attempt to replicate wage increases a scenario reminiscent of Karl Marx’s words, stating that history repeats itself twice—first as tragedy, then as farce.
La Influencia de Carlos Menem en el Gobierno Actual de Argentina
Introducción al legado de Carlos Menem
La inclusión del ex presidente Carlos Menem en el recientemente inaugurado Salón de los Héroes en la Casa Rosada no es una coincidencia. Gran parte del gobierno actual, incluyendo su forma de hacer política, alineación internacional y política judicial, exhibe un fuerte sabor menenista. En el ámbito económico, el Gobierno también parece estar dispuesto a seguir los pasos del riojano, como lo afirmó el Presidente Javier Milei en 2020 al declarar que “el primer gobierno de Menem fue el mejor gobierno de la historia… por todo lo que hizo Cavallo en el Ministerio de Economía”.
El Plan del Menemismo: Deregulación y Liberalización
Durante la campaña presidencial de 1989, Menem sintetizó su plan prometiendo “aumento de salarios y revolución productiva”. Una vez en el poder, implementó rápidamente la revolución productiva a través de un impresionante plan de deregulación, liberalización comercial, privatización y reducción del gasto público. El aumento de salarios se concretó solo después del anuncio del Plan de Convertibilidad en abril de 1991, que impulsó un crecimiento del consumo superior al 10% anual.
El Papel de Federico Sturzenegger
Federico Sturzenegger es quien actualmente implementa la revolución productiva en el gobierno de Milei. Aunque su versión es limitada debido a la falta de mayorías en el parlamento, contiene elementos similares en forma embrionaria: privatización, deregulación, apertura y reducción del tamaño del Estado. Sin embargo, la promesa del aumento de salarios aún está ausente en los primeros meses de este gobierno.
Factores que Generan Consumo
Según el académico Martin Uribe de la Universidad de Columbia, los planes de estabilización de la inflación basados en un ancla cambiaria suelen registrar un fuerte crecimiento en el consumo, particularmente de bienes duraderos, como electrodomésticos y automóviles. Esto se debe a varias razones:
- La inflación actúa como un impuesto, y al disminuirla, se liberan recursos para consumo.
- Los consumidores aumentan su consumo ante la incertidumbre sobre la duración de la estabilización cambiaria.
- Una disminución rápida de las tasas de interés al estabilizarse el tipo de cambio, aunque las expectativas inflacionarias puedan tardar más en caer.
Condiciones Actuales para un Aumento Salarial
Hoy en día, las condiciones parecen más propicias para iniciar una versión limitada de aumento salarial. La mayoría del ajuste fiscal inicial ya se ha implementado y, a corto plazo, el Gobierno está en proceso de reducir impuestos debido a la caída del PAIS. Los salarios, medidos en dólares, han recuperado gran parte de lo perdido tras la devaluación de diciembre, mientras que desde mayo, el crédito en pesos ha crecido a tasas superiores a la inflación.
Impacto de la Devaluación y la Aceleración del Consumo
Bajo este marco de un programa de desinflación que se basa en un ancla cambiaria, el peso se está apreciando frente al dólar, haciendo que los productos dolarizados sean más accesibles en términos de salarios. Recientemente, el índice Big Mac de The Economist muestra que Argentina ha pasado de tener una de las hamburguesas más baratas del mundo a la cuarta más cara, lo que indica un cambio significativo en el poder adquisitivo.
Factores Clave en la Eficiencia de Consumo
El descenso de la tasa del PAIS y la reducción del periodo de pago de importaciones son dos factores que permitirán que los precios de los bienes importados y los suministros disminuyan en los próximos meses. Sin embargo, esto podría llevar a un aumento de las importaciones, intensificando la presión sobre las reservas internacionales, que ya están en niveles delicados.
Negociaciones y Estrategias Financieras
El Gobierno está en negociaciones con diversas entidades para obtener préstamos, incluyendo un financiamiento de $1 mil millones por parte de Santander. No obstante, los acreedores de bonos en dólares buscan que las reservas aumenten de manera sostenible, y cualquier incremento desmedido de las importaciones podría plantear serios desafíos financieros.
Monetización del Crecimiento y su Riesgo
La preocupación por una política monetaria demasiado expansiva comenzó tras la reciente reducción en la tasa de política monetaria del 50% al 40% anual. Esto ha incrementado la presión sobre el tipo de cambio, requiriendo medidas de intervención del Gobierno. Ante la aceleración de la inflación y la incertidumbre económica, el Banco Central (BCRA) enfrenta la difícil tarea de controlar la inflación sin reprimir el crecimiento del consumo.
Indicadores de Inflación y Tendencias de Consumo
Los datos de inflación de julio mostraron un repunte, acentuando la preocupación sobre la inercia de la inflación núcleo, que se situó en 5.86%. Las expectativas de inflación rompen el umbral establecido y sugieren que la implícita búsqueda de un aumento salarial podría estar alimentando una expansión monetaria insostenible.
Retos y Futuro del Aumento Salarial
Si la política monetaria se mantiene expansiva, el BCRA podría verse obligado a aumentar las tasas de interés, lo cual podría abortar la intención de un incremento salarial. Con esta complejidad en el horizonte, el Gobierno deberá gestionar con cautela su ambicioso programa, evitando que los intentos de replicar el aumento salarial terminen como una repetición histórica fallida: un fenómeno que podría resultar en un ciclo trágico.
Beneficios y Consecuencias del Aumento del Consumo
Si bien un aumento en el consumo puede generar mejoras en la actividad industrial y el crecimiento del PIB, también conlleva desafíos significativos. El aumento en las importaciones podría llevar a un deterioro de la balanza comercial y un efecto negativo en las reservas internacionales. Las decisiones políticas deben equilibrar los beneficios inmediatos con las consecuencias a largo plazo.
Prácticas Recomendadas para el Gobierno
- Monitoreo constante de la inflación: Implementar mecanismos efectivos para controlar la inflación antes de permitir un aumento de salarios.
- Estimular la producción local: Fomentar políticas que incentiven la producción nacional, reduciendo así la dependencia de importaciones.
- Transparencia en las políticas monetarias: Aumentar la comunicación sobre las políticas monetarias para generar credibilidad en el público y en los mercados.
Palabras Clave para el SEO
Carlos Menem, Javier Milei, economía argentina, inflación, política monetaria, consumo de bienes duraderos, Plan de Convertibilidad, Salón de los Héroes, deregulaciones, privatización, reducción de gasto público.
