The latest escalation in Russia’s aggressive military campaign in Ukraine involves North Korea supplying troops to bolster the Kremlin’s efforts. According to the U.S. government, at least 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to Russia’s Kursk region, an area that has seen occupation by Ukrainian forces since the summer months. On Monday, Ukraine confirmed that it had encountered North Korean troops for the first time along the front lines. While uncertainty remains regarding the full combat deployment of these troops and whether additional forces will be sent, North Korea’s involvement in a conflict on European soil represents a significant and alarming escalation in the situation.
In response to this dramatic widening of the conflict, the Biden administration has once again expressed its apprehension regarding further escalation. Instead of relaxing constraints that limit Ukrainians’ access to advanced Western weaponry, the Pentagon has merely voiced its “increasing concern.” When asked if Ukraine should retaliate against North Korean troops, President Joe Biden stated, “If they cross into Ukraine, yes.” Consequently, this signals to the Kremlin that U.S. engagement will likely be absent if North Korean forces participate in actions in Kursk, thereby freeing Russian troops for redeployment into Ukraine and undermining the gains achieved during Ukraine’s summer offensive against Russian incursions.
Ukraine’s allies have had time to brace for North Korea’s increasing involvement in supporting Russia’s military endeavors. In June, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang, where he solidified a “comprehensive strategic partnership” with Kim Jong Un, effectively solidifying an alliance. It has been reported that half of the artillery shells used by Russian forces, along with significant quantities of ballistic missiles, are now sourced from North Korea. This has established North Korea as the most crucial ally to Russia’s military campaign, according to Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov. Reports indicating the arrival of North Korean soldiers for training sessions in Russia originated last month. Despite this, the West has largely failed to exploit the opportunity to further destabilize Russia’s military capabilities, which are increasingly dependent on North Korean support, and has not effectively sought to disrupt these deliveries while providing Ukraine with enhanced military assistance.
North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui has characterized Russia’s offensive as a “righteous holy war.” However, it remains unclear whether the deployment of North Korean troops signifies merely a symbolic gesture to demonstrate that Russia is not completely isolated on the world stage or whether this marks the beginning of a substantial flow of manpower needed to replenish Russian ranks, which have been suffering daily casualties estimated at around 1,000. We do not yet know what price North Korea may demand for its military backing. Are these troops simply being traded for combat experience, or has Kim Jong Un negotiated a deal that includes advanced technology to enhance North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, thereby threatening U.S. interests? South Korean intelligence assessments suggest that North Korea is pursuing combat experience, monetary compensation, and Russian commitments for assistance in the event of conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
There are compelling reasons to question whether North Korea’s involvement will yield the positive results that both Russia and North Korea anticipate. First and foremost, the need for foreign troops implies that Russia is critically short on its own personnel to sustain the ongoing war effort. Recent estimates indicate Russian casualties since the initiation of the full-scale invasion surpass 600,000, leading the military to conscript ordinary citizens into contract positions to maintain a façade of a volunteer military campaign. Putin’s reluctance to implement a broad mobilization strategy stems from fears of protests originating in major urban areas, particularly Moscow and St. Petersburg, where the elite reside. The financial burden of compensating families of fallen soldiers already accounts for 6 percent of Russia’s national budget, with significantly inflated salaries and signing bonuses necessary to attract new recruits. That the Kremlin has turned to foreign soldiers might suggest that time is running out for Russia’s military to indefinitely sustain its campaign.
Secondly, the reliance on North Korean troops could result in tensions with China. An increasing partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang may raise red flags for Beijing concerning its influence over North Korea in more critical geopolitical matters within East Asia. China is acutely aware of how North Korean actions can provoke closer alliances among the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, and North Korea’s incursion into foreign conflicts would raise alarms over Beijing’s waning control over North Korean actions. While Russia portrayed last month’s BRICS summit in Kazan as a demonstration of its emergence from Western-imposed isolation, during the event, Chinese leader Xi Jinping cautioned against “adding fuel to the fire” and discouraged foreign involvement in the conflict. Although this statement might serve to maintain the appearance of Chinese neutrality, it may reveal a deeper frustration with Russia’s attempts to leverage North Korea as an alternative to excessive dependence on Beijing.
China’s reservations were not the sole deterrents to Russia’s ambitions, as the BRICS summit announcement featured a mere reference to the war, reaffirmed adherence to U.N. principles, and welcomed “relevant proposals for mediation.” Participating nations also declined Russia’s proposal for a new financial mechanism intended to bypass Western sanctions.
A third concern stemming from North Korean troop involvement is that it has prompted South Korea to reflect upon sending military advisors and weaponry to aid Ukraine. South Korea possesses a highly capable military force that, due to its superior training, professionalism, and resources, would likely prevail in any conventional conflict with North Korea. Should South Korea elect to support Ukraine, the comparative performance of both military contingents could expose vulnerabilities within the North Korean forces, leading to significant implications on the Korean Peninsula. Even if direct troop deployments to Ukraine do not occur, South Korean intelligence units are expected to assess North Korean military operations, which could enhance domestic defense planning. Moreover, any armaments supplied by South Korea from its extensive, modern stockpile may not be constrained by the limitations imposed by the Biden administration.
Fourthly, the infusion of North Korean soldiers into the conflict could lead to potential defections, causing embarrassment for the North Korean regime. The prospect of defections or the need to suppress them with force would represent a serious disgrace for North Korea. Should these troops engage beyond Kursk and enter Ukraine, they would encounter an unfamiliar reality: a populace better nourished and more affluent than themselves—an unsettling contrast that might linger in their memories. While the North Korean regime holds a tight grip on power, widespread exposure to a contrasting society might ultimately threaten its long-term stability.
Finally, North Korea’s foray into the conflict could lead to intensified pressure on the United States to ease restrictions placed on Ukraine’s access to Western military hardware. The Biden administration must confront the prospect that Ukraine could exhaust its manpower and find itself forced into unfavorable negotiations that would undermine Western interests. Increased North Korean involvement in the Russian military operation might persuade Western countries to consider expanding their role in supporting Ukraine. Poland is already calling for NATO member states to actively engage in neutralizing Russian aerial threats, including missiles and drones, from within their airspace. An escalation orchestrated by Putin to shake Western resolve may inadvertently strengthen it.
However, as of today, the Biden administration continues to allow Putin’s threats to dictate the West’s response instead of effectively utilizing Russia’s precarious military and economic posture. Biden appears to be compelling the West to squander its advantages by permitting Putin and Kim to intensify hostilities without consequence. Rather than cowering to Russian and North Korean aggression, the West should adopt a more assertive stance, confronting Moscow and Pyongyang with decisive countermeasures.
Armed and motivated by the desire to resist occupation. Such a scenario could breed disillusionment among North Korean soldiers, especially if they perceive their situation as a result of being utilized as expendable pawns in a conflict that does not directly benefit them. Historical precedents exist where foreign troops, including North Koreans, who were sent to support an ally have experienced morale issues, ultimately leading to defections.
Furthermore, the long-term strategic implications of North Korea’s military engagement in Ukraine cannot be understated. While a temporary alliance with Russia may provide short-term military support for Moscow, it may also expose North Korea to greater Western scrutiny and potential retaliatory measures. The increased visibility of North Korean troops operating in Ukraine could lead to heightened military preparedness among U.S. and allied forces in the region, particularly in South Korea, where the threat posed by the North Korean regime remains a primary concern.
North Korea’s military involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is fraught with complexities and potential consequences for both Russia and North Korea. While it may provide immediate relief for Russian military shortcomings, the broader ramifications could lead to instability within North Korea, strain relations with China, and possibly compel allied nations to respond more decisively. The convergence of these factors underscores the precarious nature of geopolitics in an era where alliances can shift rapidly and the fates of nations may be intertwined in unforeseen ways.
