Original title: North American movie box office overtook China to regain the world’s first following the epidemic, Hollywood is also in a film shortage
Sohu Entertainment Zhuangao (Hamai/Text) Two years following the epidemic, China’s film market recovered relatively quickly due to effective epidemic prevention. In 2020 and 2021, the film box office surpassed North America in a row and stood at the first position in the world.
However, in the first five months of this year, the North American film market continued to recover, while the Chinese film market was still affected by the epidemic since mid-March. In addition, the film shortage following the Spring Festival, the market performance was very sluggish.
Today, the North American box office has regained the top spot in the world, and China has returned to its original No. 2 position.
Before the epidemic, the Chinese film market was the fastest growing market in the world, with the box office hitting new highs every year. It was 11.7 billion yuan in 2011, increased to 43.8 billion yuan in 2015, and increased to 59.5 billion yuan in 2019 (Note: All Chinese box office data in this article are net box office excluding service fees, from Maoyan Professional Edition), which has risen in 8 years. More than 5 times, the cumulative increase is as high as 409%.
The world’s largest movie market, North America (United States + Canada), has been basically stable for many years, with the annual box office fluctuating between 10 billion and 12 billion US dollars. It’s $11.3 billion. The brightest moment came in 2018, when the box office hit an all-time high of $11.9 billion.
Compared with the current exchange rate, in 2011, China’s film box office was regarding 17% of that of North America, regarding 59% of that of North America in 2015, and regarding 78% of that of North America in 2019.
Therefore, there is a general expectation in the industry that in a few years, the Chinese film market will surpass North America and become the world’s largest market. Especially in the years when the Chinese film market was growing by leaps and bounds, this expectation was very consistent and strong.
Unexpectedly, in 2018 and 2019, the Chinese film market suddenly experienced a slowdown. The year-on-year growth of the national box office dropped to 8% and 5%, while the increase in 2017 was 15%, and the increase in 2016 was 4%. In 2015 The increase was 48%.
When the epidemic hit in 2020, the global market was affected. China’s epidemic prevention was more effective. The theaters reopened following being closed for regarding half a year. That year, the national movie box office was 18.6 billion yuan.
In 2021, the Chinese film market will continue to rebound rapidly, with a box office of 42.9 billion yuan that year, which has recovered to 72% of 2019.
Due to the delay in the control of the epidemic in the North American market, the performance in 2020 and 2021 is weak. The box office in 2020 is 2.1 billion US dollars, and the box office in 2021 is 4.5 billion US dollars, only recovering to 40% of the level in 2019.
In the past two years, in terms of US dollars, the Chinese film market has become the first in the world, and it is far ahead of the North American market.
In 2020, the box office of Chinese films is regarding 2.8 billion US dollars, which is 1.32 times that of the North American market. In 2021, the Chinese film box office will be regarding 6.4 billion US dollars, which is 1.43 times that of the North American market.
However, in the first five months of 2022, the Chinese film market, which continued to suffer from the epidemic, was weak and weak, and the North American film market, which continued to recover, regained the number one position in the world. As of May 29, the North American movie box office in 2022 is 2.5 billion US dollars, and the Chinese box office is 13.9 billion yuan, which is equivalent to 2.1 billion US dollars.
full recovery
The North American film market began to shut down in mid-March 2020, and the large-scale resumption of work was at the end of August and early September, starting with the release of the Fox superhero movie “X-Men: The New Mutants” and Warner’s sci-fi blockbuster “Creed”.
At that time, the number of theaters in operation had recovered to regarding 65% of the pre-epidemic level, but at that time, the audience’s panic regarding the epidemic had not been completely eliminated. In addition, the word-of-mouth of these two films was not outstanding, and the final performance was far below expectations.
The highly anticipated “Creed” sold only $58.5 million in North America, and the film cost as much as $200 million to make, which can be said to be a fiasco.
Seeing that director Nolan’s masterpiece was ineffective in saving the market, many studios began to choose to retreat, delaying the release of their blockbuster movies, and theaters in many places closed once more.
After that, “Crazy Primitives 2” in November, “Wonder Woman 1984” in December, “Tom and Jerry” in February of the following year, and “The Legend of the Dragon” in March all failed to arouse too much excitement. Big splash, the North American market has experienced a period of downturn.
In March 2021, theaters in New York and Los Angeles gradually began to resume business. The final restart of these two core ticket warehouses is the beginning of the normalization of the North American film market.
From April to July, with the release of blockbusters such as “Godzilla vs. King Kong”, “A Quiet Place 2”, “Fast and Furious 9”, “The Conjuring 3” and “Black Widow”, the North American film market ushered in its first big movie. It has rebounded and gradually stabilized. There are two or three blockbusters available every month. In August, there are “Out of Control Player”, “Jungle Adventure”, and “X-Squad: All Assembled”, and in September, there are “Shang Qi and the Ten Rings”. “Legend”, “Venom 2” and “007: No Time to Die” in October, “Eternals” and “The Expendables” in November.
By December, Sony’s “Spider-Man: Heroes of No Return” was released, triggering the first movie viewing climax following the epidemic, not only in North America, but also in the global market (not released in China).
“Spider-Man: No Home” sold $800 million in North America and $1.893 billion globally, ranking in “Avatar”, “Avengers 4”, “Titanic”, “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” and “Avengers” 3″, ranking sixth in the box-office chart of film history.
The explosion of “Spider-Man: Homeless Heroes” marks the full recovery of the global movie market following the epidemic.
global film shortage
In the first five months of this year, the North American movie market continued to recover, which was much more stable than the Chinese market. However, with more than 90% of movie theaters operating normally, the recovery is actually still very weak.
As of May 29, the box office in North America in the first five months was 2.5 billion yuan. Although it has exceeded the whole year of 2020, it has only reached 56% of the level of the same period in 2019. If this pace of recovery continues, the full-year box office by the end of the year may be only slightly higher than in 2021.
The biggest problem is the lack of supply of popular movies, which is similar to China.
Before the epidemic, 800-1000 new films were released each year in the North American market, 993 in 2018 and 910 in 2019. In 2020, due to the epidemic, the number of new films released has dropped sharply to 456. In 2021, the film market will gradually return to normal, but the number of films released will only be 438. In the first five months of 2022, there will be only 205, which is more than half of that before the epidemic.
Because the global film production affected by the epidemic is the same, this directly leads to the delay of some ongoing projects and the reduction of some new projects.
The difference between North America and China is that the North American movie market is more directly and strongly impacted by streaming media, and the diversion of new movies by streaming media is one of the biggest reasons for the decrease in the supply of new movies in theaters.
In the two years since the epidemic, several major Hollywood studios have reversed directions, all of which are vigorously developing their own streaming media platforms. Disney has Disney+, Warner has HBO Max, NBC Universal has Peacock, Viacom has Paramount+, and MGM sells it. To the e-commerce giant Amazon (which owns Amazon Prime), and Netflix and Apple TV+ are buying movies everywhere.
In order to supply films online, some movies directly abandoned the theaters and became webcasts, such as Disney’s “Mulan” and “Spiritual Journey”, and some theaters and networks broadcast simultaneously, such as Warner’s “Wonder Woman 1984” and “The Hacker” Empire 4″, and some have been positioned as online works from the beginning of the project, such as Netflix’s star-studded big productions “Red Notice” and “Don’t Look Up”.
However, following the theaters returned to normal, the loss of synchronization between the webcast and the theater network was also obvious. The major studios weighed the pros and cons and readjusted their own directions.
Warner, which announced the synchronization of its many blockbusters in 2021, will give up this strategy, which has been criticized by theaters, in 2022. “The New Batman” and “Fantastic Beasts 3” are all released in theaters first, and the box office performance is also good. , far better than “Wonder Woman 1984” and “The Matrix 4”, which were synchronized by the hospital network.
“The New Batman” is the box office champion in the North American market so far this year, with a North American box office of 369 million US dollars and a global box office of 769 million US dollars, and the theater box office alone has achieved profitability.
Disney’s “Doctor Strange 2,” which was released in May, has grossed $359 million in North America and $820 million globally, and has also performed well.
Imagine if the two films were released simultaneously on the cinema network, what would be the result?
College network differentiation
Movies in theaters not only have a complete revenue chain, but are also a key part of building and marketing brands. After theaters are released, they can be uploaded to streaming media platforms. Major studios are well aware of this. The key question is, the first First, under the balance of interests, are all films suitable for the first hospital and then the network? Second, how to balance the most profitable time during the cinema window period?
Under such circumstances, the possible trend in the future is that blockbusters will continue to be released in theaters, and will be broadcast online following a certain window period, while other medium-cost films, small-cost films, and art films may not have such treatment. .
Even some viewers feel that movies that should be shown in theaters may not necessarily be shown in theaters. For example, the Pixar animation “The Metamorphoses of Youth” released by Disney went directly to Disney+ in March this year. Although the main creative team was surprised and dissatisfied, the final fate of the film was controlled by the decision makers behind the overall company news.
The result of this may be a greater differentiation, that is, only blockbusters can drive the audience into the theater, while the space for mid-waist films and art films in the theater will become smaller and smaller.
Statistics from the Maoyan Research Institute show that in 2021, the top ten movies at the North American box office will contribute 47% of the annual box office, and one movie “Spider-Man: No Home” will contribute 13% of the annual box office. In 2019 and 2018, the top ten films on the list accounted for 39% and 33% of the box office, respectively.
Except for “Spider-Man: No Home”, which is far ahead, there are no films with a volume of 300-500 million US dollars on the North American box office list in 2021. The second-place “Shang Qi” is a box office of 224 million US dollars, 224 million US dollars – 100 million US dollars The number of US dollar films is 10, and the others are all below 100 million at the box office. Films below 100 million account for 50% of the total box office of the year. In 2019, there were 7 films with a box office volume of 300-500 million US dollars, accounting for 24% of the annual box office, and films below 100 million US dollars accounted for 38% of the total box office of the year.
Art-house films deemed acceptable and less expensive to watch at home, or “indie films” outside the big studio system, may be more affected.
In 2021, the historical costume film “The Last Duel”, directed by well-known director Ridley Scott and starring Matt Damon and Ben Affleck, will only make $10.85 million at the North American box office, directed by Guillermo de Toro , Toni Collette, Bradley Cooper starring “Jade Face Love Demon” North American box office only 11.34 million US dollars, the reputation of these two films is not bad. Guillermo de Toro’s two previous works of the same type, “The Shape of Water” and “Scarlet Mountain”, had a North American box office of $63.86 million and $31.09 million, respectively.
Back in China, the phenomenon of film market differentiation is also becoming more and more obvious. The theater is counting on the popular schedule and the first movie to return blood, and the market is usually very deserted.
In 2021, the first three films of the Spring Festival, “Changjin Lake”, “Hello, Li Huanying” and “Detective Chinatown 3”, contributed 33% of the annual box office. In 2022, the first three films of the Spring Festival, “The Water Gate of Changjin Lake” “The Bridge”, “This Killer Is Not Too Calm” and “Miracle Stupid Kid” contributed 53% of the current box office.
The difference is that the impact of domestic streaming media has not been as serious as that of Hollywood, and the movies that have been transferred to the Internet are still a few. The only ones that have attracted more attention are Xu Zheng’s “囧 Mom”, Guo Jingming’s “Cold Blood Banquet”, and Chen Desen’s. “Journey”, Wang Jing’s “Eternal Dragon Slayer” and several other.
However, the trend of online movie viewing is unstoppable. In the future, what Hollywood faces will also be faced by the Chinese film industry.
Now, companies like Alibaba, iQiyi, and Tencent that have video platforms also have their own film companies. They also have to choose between theater chains and the Internet. For example, the strategy of Alibaba Pictures is that new director works, In the early stage of project development, it was not clear whether it was a theatrical movie or an online movie. After the movie was made, it would be decided according to the content whether it should be released in theaters or broadcast directly on Youku.Return to Sohu, see more
