2023-08-06 07:42:24
If there is a region in the world where the expression “thirst for wheat” finds all its relevance, it is in North Africa and the Middle East (Anmo). Since the 1960s, the region’s needs for agricultural products have increased sixfold and, currently, more than 40% of the region’s consumption comes from international markets. It is obvious that this regional food dependence is mainly linked to cereals, given that one ton out of two consumed comes from outside.
The North Africa and Middle East (Anmo) region is where the greatest natural constraints are encountered. Water is extremely rare and several countries are hit by increasing water stress. The availability of arable land is limited and all or most of the land suitable for agricultural activity has already been exploited.
The rains are low and irregular knowing that climate change weakens this part of the world more than others. In such an unfavorable context for agriculture, the population growth recorded for half a century has undeniably accentuated the food vulnerability of a region rich in history, but worried regarding its future. In this regard, pessimism regarding the future food security of the planet logically turns into anxiety regarding the region, especially since these dynamics must be linked to those, geopolitical, of countries most of which are chronically unstable. Here, in a nutshell, is the reflection given by Sébastien Abis, associate researcher at Iris (Institute of International and Strategic Relations), in his latest book on the geopolitics of wheat.
More than 40% of consumption comes from international
According to the author of the book, since the 1960s, the region’s needs for agricultural products have increased sixfold and, currently, more than 40% of the region’s consumption comes from international markets. It is obvious that this regional food dependence is mainly linked to cereals, given that one ton out of two consumed comes from outside.
“In wheat, the ratio can even exceed two-thirds for certain states such as Algeria and Jordan. In Lebanon and Yemen, more than 90% of wheat needs are covered by imports. Since the beginning of this century, the volumes imported have continued to grow.
For North Africa, they rose from 18 Mt in 2000 to 24 Mt in 2010 to reach 30 Mt in 2022, ie a 67% increase over the period. For the Middle East, the evolution is 119%, wheat imports being 35 Mt in 2022 once morest 16 Mt in 2000. Although it must be admitted that these growth percentages are less pronounced than those of Asia of the Southeast, the fact remains that the volumes are colossal with regard to a smaller population than that located in the Asian zone in question. “North Africa and the Middle East have polarized each year, since the beginning of this century, a third of world wheat imports, while the demographic size of this region only accounts for 6% of the world’s total”, explains the document.
200,000 kilograms per minute !
Currently, 110 Mt of wheat are consumed per year in the Anmo region, i.e. 35 Mt more than in the early 2000s. Egypt, the world’s largest importer, has seen its consumption of wheat increase from 13 to 21 Mt since the beginning of this century. In second position, we find Turkey with consumption reaching 17 Mt in 2000, while third place goes to Algeria, third world buyer, going from 6 to 11 Mt of wheat consumed per year during the last two decades. “By compressing the timescale into a single day and converting the weight into measures more familiar to the general public, the finding is even more instructive. With an annual total of 110 Mt of wheat consumed, this means that the Anmo region turns an average of 300,000 tons of wheat daily, or 200,000 kilograms per minute! It is legitimate to object to the fact that it is not alone in such a case: the data is identical for the European Union, which consumes 110 Mt of wheat each year,” the document further specifies.
But at this level, two major differences must be specified. First of all, half of the wheat used in the EU is not directly linked to human consumption, where it is over 80% for Anmo. Second, only 4% of the wheat consumed in the EU is imported from outside, where the ratio is 60% for the Anmo zone. In this regard, it is therefore not surprising that all the wheat exporting countries of the planet are looking first and foremost at the Anmo region among the various outlets.
Productivity, the other pair of sleeves
Faced with this situation and although policies for the development of cereal growing have been put in place by most governments for half a century, it is clear that all the countries of the region are today net importers of wheat . “Even if gains in production and yields have been observed in recent decades, they were much less pronounced in the Anmo zone than in the rest of the planet and, in particular, in other developing regions”.
In the same vein, the document adds that labor productivity in the Anmo region is a serious problem that is superimposed on natural limitations. As a result, in addition to limited performance, there are also climatic, demographic and food trends that portend growing dependence on global wheat markets for years to come. “…Wheat therefore appears as an enlightening barometer of the risks of agricultural and food insecurity with which North Africa and the Middle East are already dealing. In this perspective, these States are called upon to beef up their agricultural strategies and strongly reintegrate the food component into their national security objectives”.
What strategy to mitigate the risks?
According to the document, even if the use of external supplies is necessary for the countries of the Anmo region, levers can be activated in terms of national production and, above all, efficiency within the wheat sector.
In this context, “productivity remains perfectible, especially if agronomic science progresses and investments intensify to support this agricultural development that is up to contemporary challenges. In this regard, the case of Morocco should be mentioned, because the Kingdom perfectly translates this return of strong political voluntarism in terms of agriculture and food security. The launch in 2008 of the Green Morocco Plan, its numerous achievements and the follow-up at the highest summit of the monarchy of this sector essential to the national economy and the stability of the country deserve to be mentioned”, underlines the work. Moreover, by trying to reduce losses, these countries can regain some sovereignty. While food and cereal self-sufficiency is now unattainable, the optimization of value chains and the strengthening of storage capacities can, on the other hand, contribute to improving food security in these countries. However, the wheat import sector is currently handicapped by the lack of logistical efficiency: production losses following the harvest, during the transport phases or just following arrival at the quay in ports whose hinterland remains poorly connected. to the seafronts.
Politically essential subsidies
In the Anmo region, wheat is one of the main products and bread is thus central to the diet of the populations, where the biggest eaters on the planet are found.
For example, in Tunisia, the average per person per year is 70 kg of durum wheat (semolina, pasta and couscous) and 85 kg of soft wheat (flour and bread). Like those of the Mediterranean basin, it is difficult to imagine sitting down to eat without a well-stocked basket of bread, even if couscous or pasta are on the menu! In addition, it is essential to bear in mind that households in the Anmo region still devote an average of 50% of their monthly budget to food expenditure in which bread is the daily choice, while this bread is sometimes the object of waste, with overestimated purchases on a daily basis, which nevertheless weigh down the balance sheets both financially for families and for cereals throughout the country.
On another level, in the Arab world, wheat also plays the role of detonator, when it runs out or its price explodes. In order to take these risks into account, many governments in the region have for years practiced supportive policies on staple foods. By striving to maintain a low price of bread through public finances, the authorities in place are in a way buying social peace and time in power. Thus, transfer mechanisms have been developed (subsidies, price support, food stamps) to cushion shocks and make basic products accessible to as many people as possible.
In 2012, in the wake of the Arab revolts, 40 billion dollars had been devoted to food subsidies in the Anmo region! However, these transfers weigh very heavily on the budgets of these States, some of which are currently experiencing considerable financial difficulties. “If reforms are carried out, they are generally technical, but the risk is (too) great, for the power in place, to touch these social mechanisms, the total stoppage of which might set fire to the country. Budgetarily unsustainable, open to criticism since they are often made to the detriment of spending on other sectors or sometimes of embezzlement, these subsidies on basic necessities – including bread – remain politically essential… The year 2022, between the socio-economic effects -prolonged economic conditions of the Covid pandemic and the turmoil on the world cereal markets because of the war in Ukraine, came to remind us that the majority of Arab countries were looking more closely at the question of the price of bread, this fundamental and timeless variable, capable of inflaming a region with chronic geopolitical effervescence” , further states the document.
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