Noboa, with his sights set on re-election a year after winning the elections in Ecuador

Quito, Oct 15 (EFE).- Daniel Noboa has his sights set on re-election to extend his mandate for a full period (2025-2029) in an Ecuador that has economic problems aggravated by two crises with complex resolution: energy and insecurity , after a year of having won the extraordinary presidential elections of 2023.

Noboa is one of the sixteen candidates registered for the 2025 elections, and according to the polls released so far, he starts as a favorite, followed by Correísta Luisa González, whom he defeated in last year’s elections, celebrated by the early departure of the power of former president Guillermo Lasso (2021-2023).

Elected as president at the age of 35, Noboa, who received Ecuador with a fiscal deficit of about 4.8 billion dollars, equivalent to around 5% of the gross domestic product (GDP), emphasizes that he received a “destroyed country”, with problems economic aggravated by the energy crisis that has forced blackouts that increased to up to ten hours a day since last week.

According to official estimates, Ecuador loses about 12 million dollars for every hour of blackout.

Delays remain

Analyst Alberto Acosta-Burneo told EFE that Noboa received a “totally bankrupt” country, but managed to “unlock politics”, obtain agreements in the Assembly and the approval of economic reforms that initially made it easier for him to administer the country in the midst of the crisis, although later the situation became complicated in the Assembly, with Correism as the main adversary.

Noboa managed to eliminate gasoline subsidies and raise the value added tax (VAT) from 12 to 15%, without popular revolts, protected by popular support for his crusade against organized crime, whose fight he elevated to the category of “conflict.” internal arming.

With financial support of nearly $5 billion from multilaterals and the International Monetary Fund this year, the Government has been able to reduce inherited and current arrears, but the situation remains critical and with the increase in expenses due to the electricity crisis, which has forced emerging hiring, the analyst noted.

Insecurity crisis

January 9 marked one of the toughest moments of the Noboa Government, when an armed group stormed a television channel during a live broadcast, while more violent events occurred in the streets and simultaneous riots in several prisons.

Noboa declared the “internal armed conflict”, militarized the prisons and decreed states of exception to quell the wave of violence, which led to Ecuador being in 2023 the country with the most homicides per capita in Latin America, with 47.2 per 100,000 inhabitants. .

The Government’s efforts have not been sufficient to contain the wave of crime linked – according to authorities – to drug trafficking and illegal mining. So far this year, Ecuador has seized more than 223 tons of drugs and this Monday Noboa revealed that they discovered 2,000 hectares of illegal coca leaf plantations in Ecuador, raw material for the production of cocaine.

Invasion of the Mexican embassy

In the international sphere, Noboa added to a notorious crisis with Mexico when in April he ordered a police assault on the Mexican embassy in Quito to arrest Jorge Glas, former vice president of Rafael Correa, to whom the government of then president Andrés Manuel López Obrador had granted diplomatic asylum.

The case involved a dispute still unresolved between Ecuador and Mexico at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, with mutual accusations of having contravened international agreements.

While Mexico denounces that Ecuador violated the inviolability of a diplomatic headquarters, Ecuador accuses Mexico of having interfered in internal affairs and having given diplomatic asylum to a person prosecuted and convicted of corruption by ordinary courts.

Internal problems

In anticipation of the presidential elections, there is added uncertainty due to the bitter confrontation that Noboa maintains with his vice president, Verónica Abad, who claims her right to assume presidential functions when he requests permission to campaign, as required by the Constitution.

However, the Government believes it is “disastrous” for Abad, appointed ambassador to Israel by Noboa, to temporarily assume power, whom the vice president has denounced for alleged political gender violence.

For Acosta-Burneo, a resolution that is far from legality in this political battle could affect Noboa’s image in the face of the elections, although at the moment he sees a political cost for the blackouts as more likely, since the population may consider that they are the Government’s fault. , when it is also a structural problem.

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