2023-12-28 13:55:00
What is going on?
Last Wednesday, gas prices rose slightly, to about 35 euros per megawatt hour, before dropping back to 33 euros on Thursday morning. These fluctuations have everything to do with the tensions in the Middle East. In recent weeks, Houthi rebels from Yemen have attacked several cargo ships in the Red Sea. Especially ships that they suspected were heading to Israel. This threat makes energy companies a bit nervous, because LNG, liquefied natural gas, is mainly transported by sea. An international coalition has now been set up to protect shipping traffic in the Red Sea and the surrounding straits.
Reason to panic?
Not necessarily, says energy expert Jilles van den Beukel of The Hague Center of Strategic Studies. It already brings peace to the tent that an international coalition has been established against rebel violence, he says. And the European gas market is not completely dependent on the liquefied natural gas from Qatar that is transported across the Red Sea. If gas is needed from Qatar, the ships can detour via Africa. That pushes the gas price up a little, but not very much, says Van den Beukel.
The energy expert mainly sees that there has been more calm in the previously overstressed energy market in recent months. For example, gas prices have almost halved in the past three months. The gas supplies are well replenished. The Netherlands has an extra LNG terminal, partly thanks to Climate Minister Rob Jetten. And the gas market expects prices to remain around current levels for the next two years. Also a boost: the extremely mild winter weather. Van den Beukel: “We are no longer going back to the comfortable world we had a few years ago. With very low gas prices of 18 euros per megawatt hour. But we will no longer have to deal with the extreme prices in 2022, of 100 euros per megawatt hour.”
What does all this mean for the consumer?
At first glance, not that much, says Van den Beukel. The energy ceiling, which was introduced last year to reduce high energy costs, will expire in two days. But many energy suppliers already supply gas at rates around the level of the energy ceiling. Van den Beukel: “The average consumer with a variable energy contract will not see much change in his bill. The purchasing price for energy suppliers has decreased, but the energy tax will actually increase as of January. And the consumer looks at the net costs. They remain virtually the same.”
But, the energy expert emphasizes, with two wars and many geopolitical tensions, these remain uncertain times. Yet he does not expect gas prices to suddenly skyrocket this winter.
Is it wise to sign a permanent contract after all?
Do this especially if you need certainty, says Van den Beukel. Not because you think such a permanent contract is cheaper. He explains that energy suppliers must purchase insurance to reduce possible price increases for customers with a permanent contract. These insurances obviously cost money, which also increases the price of permanent contracts. “So you cannot say: one contract is better than the other. If things are tight, you might want the security of a permanent contract.”
Also read:
Fixed energy contracts are now relatively cheap. Switch, ACM advises
This is the time to switch from a variable energy contract to a permanent contract, says De Vastelastenbond. Watchdog ACM also recommends this, especially for those who like certainty.
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