2023-08-09 01:46:57
Whoever the next president is, se will face a truly challenging scenario in the National Congress to get the laws you need. It is that no political force would have its own quorum, although Together for Change has a chance of staying the first minority in the Chamber of Deputies and dispute it in the Senate.
The PASO on Sunday will offer the most reliable photo of what might happen in the October election with the distribution of seats. There they will choose 130 national deputies from all districtsand 24 national senators from eight provinces: Buenos Aires, Formosa, Jujuy, La Rioja, Misiones, San Juan, San Luis and Santa Cruz.
In Deputies, where the seats are distributed by the D’Hont system, the 2019 election is renewed, when the recently constituted Frente de Todos won the Presidency. The scenario now is very different, since it would no longer be a polarized electionbut of thirds, due to the irruption of the libertarian Javier Miley.
In those elections Alberto Fernández received 48.2% of the votes, and Mauricio Macri, 40.2%. There was no second round. Today, practically no survey gives the two main forces the same percentage as four years ago and Everything indicates that there will be a ballot.
That is why, in Deputies, the greatest challenge is faced by the current Frente de Todos, which exposes 68 of its 118 current benches. Together for Change, meanwhile, risks 55 seats out of a total of 116. If the map of thirds is specified, both spaces would lose seats.
In a strict tripartite scenario, similar to the one that occurred in the first round of 2015, Unión por la Patria would have regarding 103 deputies, and Together for Change with regarding 114, while Milei would have around 21. These are numbers that circulate in some offices of the main opposition. Other more austere calculations attribute to the opposition alliance regarding 105 legislators.
Beyond the fine numbers, still premature, it is very likely that, regardless of who the next president is, neither of the two main spaces have their own quorum of 129. The future ruling party will be forced to negotiate with the Milei bloc, or with the provincial forces, such as the ruling parties of Córdoba, Misiones and Río Negro.
The “golden” votes
The space that takes all the wins is Freedom Advancesbecause both Milei and her partner Victoria Villarruel took office in 2021, that is, they have a mandate for two more years. The Left Front is in the same situation because its four members continue until 2025.
“We anticipate that the next Congress will be made up mainly of two large dominant blocs, Unión por la Patria and Juntos por el Cambio. In turn, it is expected that the most radical and intransigent benches of Deputies, such as La Libertad Avanza and the Left Front, will grow in representation,” he analyzed. Leandro DominguezDirector of Political Analysis of the Legislative Directory Foundation.
The specialist told this medium that “in this context, it is probable that the parties aligned with the governors or members of a portion of dissident Peronism decrease in representation in mathematical terms. However, in political terms its legislative relevance will increase”.
“In a scenario where neither Together for Change nor Unión por la Patria would have their own quorum, combined with the growth of the most radical or intransigent spaces, those parties aligned with local or provincial representation will be one of the keys to unlock the functioning of the next Congress”, evaluated Domínguez.
Currently there are two “federal” benches that put half of their representation at stake. They are the Federal Interblock, headed by Alejandro “Topo” Rodríguez from Buenos Aires, who risks 4 of 8 seats; and Provincias Unidas, led by Luis Di Giácomo from Rio Negro, who exhibited 2 seats out of a total of 4.
Senate
In the election of senators there are no half measures: three seats are distributed by province, two for the political group that obtains the highest number of votes, and one for the one that comes second. The 24 seats that were distributed in the 2017 legislative election, which Juntos por el Cambio won, are renewed.
This promises to be the hardest-fought battle, because the Frente de Todos y Juntos por el Cambio hoy they are separated by just two benches difference, and risk 9 the first (plus two allies) and 11 the second. In other words, there is a chance that the board will remain very similar to the current one, with two forces fighting the first minority, of which none would reach by itself the quorum of 37.
The pro-government interblock, led by José Mayans (who is seeking to renew his mandate) today has 31 members and would need to add 6 more to reach its own majority. Together for Change, meanwhile, would have to add 4. Both spaces might also approach the number with the support of provincial parties that accommodate themselves according to the ruling party.
One of the keys is in the province of Buenos Aires, where in 2017 the list headed by Esteban Bullrich vention to that of Cristina Kirchner. That is why the PRO puts two seats at stake and Kirchnerism one. If Unión por la Patria retains the governorship of Buenos Aires with Axel Kicillof, it is likely that the drag will favor him and he will end up recovering the seat lost six years ago, thus achieving the landing of the current minister Edward “Wado” Of Peter next to Juliana DiTullio.
Two other fundamental provinces for the current ruling party are The Rioja y Missions, because there two faithful members expire in office: Clara Vega from La Rioja, closely identified with the presidential candidate Sergio Massa; and the missionary Magdalena Solari Quintana, from the Missionary Concord Front, the party that governs the province and was revalidated at the polls.
Peronism would retain the majority in Formosa, where the governor Gildo Insfran he won comfortable once more. But there is uncertainty in two other provinces where he has already won Together for Change: San Juan (with Marcelo Orrego) and saint Louis (Claudio Pogi). If those results are replicated in October, they might give the opposition coalition two more seats.
In addition, it is expected that Together for Change retain the majority in Jujuy, province that will continue to govern. The map is completed with Santa Cruz, where the majority today has it Together for Change. The province will elect a governor on the same day as the national PASO, with the Ley de Lemas.
1691546181
#force #quorum #JxC #fights #minority
