The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be unveiled on Sunday (16th), and the outside world is highly concerned about the high-level personnel changes. It is speculated that Vice Premier Hu Chunhua of the State Council is expected to take over the premiership, but he is not the successor of Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Central Committee.
Former Nikkei China bureau chief Nakazawa Keji wrote an article that if Hu Chunhua, known as “Xiao Hu” by outsiders, takes over as prime minister, investors may welcome this personnel arrangement and regard it as a continuation of the CCP’s “reform and opening up” policy. Signal.
The world’s second-largest economy desperately needs good news. Economists predict that economic growth this year may fall short of the official target. Investors returned to the stock market on Monday, and the Shanghai Composite Index also fell below the 3,000-point mark.
Hu Chunhua has long been the trump card of the Communist Youth League faction, and he follows in the footsteps of former party leader Hu Jintao and current premier Li Keqiang.
However, if Hu Chunhua becomes prime minister, it means that Xi Jinping has reached a compromise with factions within the party.
Even if Hu Chunhua becomes prime minister, Xi Jinping remains in power and economic policies may be more conservative, according to people familiar with the matter.
The reason, the sources said, is that Xi will only make compromises on the condition that all the remaining members of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China are appointed by Xi Jinping cronies. Surrounded by the “Xi’s army”, Hu Chunhua may become a prime minister with little room for exertion.
At the same time, even if Hu Chunhua does become prime minister, it will be difficult for him to become the heir to replace Xi Jinping, the reason is that when Xi Jinping’s fourth term ends (2032), Hu Chunhua will be 69 years old, and the younger generation will become the successor. Humans are more likely.
Sun Zhengcai, the former secretary of the Chongqing Municipal Party Committee, was killed in the summer of 2017 and sentenced to life in prison. Sun Zhengcai’s biggest backer is former Premier Wen Jiabao, whose political influence has waned despite Wen’s support for Hu Jintao.
As a result, Hu Chunhua, who is regarded by the outside world as the successor of the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, and Sun Zhengcai, who is known as a candidate for the prime minister, did not become members of the Politburo Standing Committee in the 2017 “Nineteenth National Congress”, which in turn created opportunities for Xi Jinping to continue to hold power in the “Twenty Congress”. condition.
How will Hu Jintao act this time? Nakazawa Keer believes that Hu Jintao may want to see Li Keqiang, who will step down as premier next spring, continue to serve as a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, and Hu Chunhua will also “become permanent”.
If Hu Jintao can’t do it, he will be forced to make a choice. If he views Hu Chunhua as prime minister as a top priority, Li Keqiang may not be able to continue as a member of the Standing Committee.