The Turkish geologist and professor of seismology, dr. Naji Gyorur speaking to TGRT Haber, referred to 1766 when the sea of Marmara faults “broke three months apart, so Istanbul was faced with two earthquakes of 7 and above during this period. This is a very dangerous issue. If both faults rupture, there is a possibility that they will reach 7.5 and 7.6 Richter.”
According to the professor, Istanbul is currently “playing extra time” regarding the possibility of such an earthquake and even estimated when it will happen.
“An earthquake is expected to occur in six years plus or minus and within 10 years. We are playing overtime. There’s no way we’re going to wait too long. The probability of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or more in Marmaras is 47%”, he said characteristically.
“There are no distinct fault lines running through the ground. There is the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault, which enters from the Gulf through the sea and exits from Tekirdag, with a length of 160 kilometers. The earthquake is right here. There are no faults that will greatly affect Istanbul from land.
We know one thing, there have been earthquakes of a certain size in Marmaras historically and they will happen once more. There are also indications that it will happen. There was the 1999 earthquake and the Sarkioi earthquake in 1912. There hasn’t been an earthquake between Golcuk and Sarkioi since 1766. We call this the ‘earthquake gap’. There is a rule in geology. If there is an earthquake void somewhere, that void must be filled. We are waiting for an earthquake,” he added.
Still referring to the recent earthquake of 7.6 Richter in Japan where “120 people lost their lives by chance”, he noted that if a similar earthquake happened in Istanbul, there would be more loss of life and property than the total of the 11 provinces of Turkey that were affected by the February 2023 earthquakes.
“There might be more than 50 thousand casualties in an earthquake in Istanbul. Those who have technologically advanced societies consider those who have more deaths in these earthquakes to be backward. They feel that there is definitely something wrong with this society. They may be right to some extent. We have to protect our own people, our own children.
If you build a city with earthquake awareness, culture and earthquake resistance with all its elements, that city will grow and grow in the future. These faults have been producing earthquakes for 13 million years and will produce earthquakes for millions of years. This is not an event that we can say is over,” he said, adding: “There cannot be 20,000, 50,000 dead in every earthquake.”
Gyorur stressed that the mayor who will take office following the elections to be held in Istanbul on April 1 will have to prepare the city for an earthquake. “We need to talk regarding what to do before and following the earthquake. Citizens should first measure the place where they live to see if it is earthquake resistant. They will know who to contact. The municipalities and the ministry will provide this service. Citizens and the state must join hands and overcome this problem. The most important element of earthquake preparedness is the public. If a people does not become seismically aware, the city will not be prepared for an earthquake. When the mayors turn their backs, the people build 10 illegal buildings,” he said.
“We know which parts of Istanbul will be vulnerable, what our weaknesses are and what areas they are. I hope that the mayor of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality will do what is necessary to prepare the city for an earthquake. Among these requirements are the details of the city. The city does not prepare for an earthquake by accident. If you prepare all the elements of the city, the public, the infrastructure, the building stock, the ecosystem and the environment and the economy for an earthquake at the same time in an integrated way, you will have prepared the city for an earthquake,” he added.
Stating that Turkey is full of earthquake zones everywhere, the professor also mentioned the areas of Istanbul that will be hit the hardest. “Tuzla and its surroundings, Kartal, Maltepe, the areas of Kantikioi near the sea may be affected. Not much of a problem up north. Put the map in front of your eyes, draw a line from right to left parallel to the second Bosphorus bridge.
Areas south of this curve will be most affected by the earthquake. Areas in the north will be relatively less affected. There will be earthquakes between 7.2 and 7.6 on the Richter scale and will be affected by them. Since 1999 we have been shouting, but no one took us seriously. Only recently did the politicians start to listen to us”, he underlined.
“As far as the areas are concerned, on the European side, especially the strip 10 kilometers from the coast and the area up to Silivri will be the places that will suffer the biggest losses from the earthquake,” he added.
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