This seems to be the result of all the forecasts, issued during August.
According to 89% of the available scenarios (over 310 scenarios) the average September temperature will be higher than normal for the season (reference period: 1993-2016). More specifically, the most likely scenarios are deviations of the order of 1-2°C (38%) and 0-1°C (31%), while the probability of average temperature deviations of more than 2°C is about 19%.
Finally, there is an 11% chance of having a lower than normal average temperature, as reported by pelop.gr.
This forecast is based on a total of 350 possible scenarios from the following forecast centers: ECMWF (Europe), UKMO (United Kingdom), Meteo-France (France), JMA (Japan), NCEP (USA), DWD (Germany) and CMCC ( Italy), as provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service of the European Commission. It is emphasized that long-term forecasts are characterized by great uncertainty and aim to estimate the trend in the monthly and seasonal evolution of average weather conditions.
Variations in temperature on a daily and local basis due to the influence of all kinds of weather systems may differ significantly from the average variation over a period of one or more months over a wider area.
If the worst-case scenario is confirmed, which estimates that the average temperature will rise by two degrees Celsius, then conditions will be significantly warmer.
Weather: What happened in September 2023
However, it is recalled that “September 2023 was the warmest September ever recorded on a global scale” and broke the previous record by an impressive margin, continuing the series of global monthly records that began in June, as announced by the European Copernicus Observatory .
September 2023 was “1.75°C warmer than the average September in the period 1850-1900”, the pre-industrial reference period, before human-made greenhouse effect started, according to the climate change service Copernicus (C3S).
In the past days, some of the highest temperatures in the country were recorded in Achaia. In fact, in Vrachneika on August 15th the mercury rose to 42.1 degrees Celsius and was the highest reading in the whole country. Furthermore, the average maximum temperature in the country was equal to 35.2 °C, while 174 of the 488 active stations (at the present time) recorded temperatures above 37 °C, of which 30 recorded temperatures above 40 °C.
Weather: Detailed forecast for the whole country
Generally clear weather. In the midday and afternoon hours in the continental and northern Ionian regions, clouds will develop and local rains will occur. Isolated storms will occur in western and central Macedonia, Epirus and in the highlands of the mainland.
Winds will blow in the west from western directions 3 to 4 Beaufort, in the east from north to 5 and in the Aegean locally 6 Beaufort with gradual weakening.
The temperature will drop slightly and reach 33 to 35 degrees Celsius in the continental areas and 36 to 37 degrees Celsius in places in the central and southern continental areas. In the Ionian Islands, Crete, the eastern Aegean and the Dodecanese 33 to 35 degrees and in the rest of the island country 28 to 30 degrees Celsius.
MACEDONIA, THRACE
Weather: Generally clear. In the midday and afternoon hours, clouds will develop and in Macedonia there will be local rain and mainly in the western and central parts, isolated storms.
Winds: Variable 3 to 4, in the east northeast 4 to 5 Beaufort, gradually weakening.
Temperature: From 21 to 36 degrees Celsius. In western Macedonia the minimum will be 3 to 4 degrees lower.
IONIAN ISLANDS, EPIROS, WEST STEREA, WEST PELOPONNISOS
Weather: Generally clear. In the midday and afternoon hours, clouds will develop and local rains will occur and, in Epirus as well as in the rest of the continental mountains, isolated storms.
Winds: Variable and gradual from the west 3 to 4 Beaufort.
Temperature: From 24 to 36 to 37 degrees Celsius. In the interior of Epirus the minimum will be 3 to 5 degrees lower.
EASTERN STEREA, EVIA, EASTERN PELOPONNISOS
Weather: Generally clear. In the midday and afternoon hours, temporary clouds will develop and in the highlands of the central Sterea and Peloponnese, there will be local showers and possibly isolated storms.
Winds: From the north directions 3 to 4 and in the east local 5 Beaufort with weakening from the afternoon.
Temperature: From 23 to 37 degrees Celsius.
CYCLADES, CRETE
Weather: Clear.
Winds: North northwesterlies 4 to 6 Beaufort weakening from the afternoon.
Temperature: From 25 to 32 degrees and in Crete up to 34 degrees Celsius.
EAST AEGEAN ISLANDS – DODECANISE
Weather: Clear.
Winds: Northerly 4 to 6 Beaufort with weakening in the evening.
Temperature: From 25 to 35 degrees Celsius.
THESSALY
Weather: Generally clear. In the midday and afternoon hours, clouds will develop and local rain and isolated storms will occur in the mountains.
Winds: East northeast 3 to 4 Beaufort.
Temperature: From 22 to 37 degrees and in the Sporades up to 30 degrees Celsius.
ATTICA
Weather: Generally clear, with a few temporary clouds in the midday and afternoon hours.
Winds: From north directions 3 to 4 and in the east to 5 Beaufort with weakening from the afternoon.
Temperature: From 26 to 36 degrees Celsius.
THESSALONIKI
Weather: Generally clear. During the afternoon and afternoon, clouds will develop and local showers or isolated thunderstorms will occur.
Winds: From south directions 3 to 4 Beaufort.
Temperature: From 23 to 32 degrees Celsius.
FORECAST FOR MONDAY 19-08-2024
Initially in the northwest and gradually in the rest of the west, central and north, temporary clouds will develop and local rains will occur. Sporadic storms will occur initially in the Ionian and gradually in the western and northern continents (except Thrace), mainly until the afternoon. The phenomena in the northern Ionian and Epirus are likely to be temporarily intense in places.
In the rest of the country, generally clear weather and only in the midday and afternoon hours in the continental areas will local clouds develop and there will be local rain, mainly in the mountains.
Winds will blow in the eastern Aegean from north directions 3 to 5 Beaufort, in the rest of the country variable 3 to 4 and gradually from south directions up to 5 Beaufort.
The temperature will reach 30 to 32 degrees in the northwest, 34 to 36 in the rest of the country and locally 37 degrees Celsius in the eastern and southern mainland and Crete.
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY 20-08-2024
In the west, central and north, temporary clouds with local rains are forecast and mainly in the northern parts of the Ionian Sea and the mainland, sporadic storms. The phenomena in the northern Ionian, Epirus and Macedonia are likely to be temporarily intense in places.
In the rest of the country generally clear weather, with occasional clouds and possibly local showers or isolated thunderstorms in the continental areas during the midday and evening hours.
Visibility to the west and south in the morning hours will be limited in places.
Winds will blow variable 3 to 4 Beaufort and gradually to the south from west directions 4 to 6 Beaufort.
The temperature will not change appreciably. It will reach 32 to 34 and locally in the eastern and southern mainland, the islands of the eastern Aegean, the Dodecanese and Crete 36 to 37 degrees Celsius.
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY 21-08-2024
In the Cyclades, the islands of the eastern Aegean and the Dodecanese, generally clear weather. In the rest of the country, temporary clouds with temporary local rains. Isolated storms will occur mainly in the central and northern continental areas during the midday and evening hours. In the evening the weather will improve.
The winds will blow west northwest 3 to 5 and in the seas locally 6 Beaufort.
The temperature will drop slightly.
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY 22-08-2024
Generally clear weather, with temporary clouds in the midday and afternoon hours in the continental mainly mountainous areas.
The winds will blow north northwest 3 to 5 and in the Aegean locally 6 Beaufort.
The temperature will rise slightly mainly in the continental areas.
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#Nightmare #scenario #September
