Economic Observer Network reporter Zou Yongqin Recently, the London Metal Exchange (LME, the full name of London Metal Exchange), which has a history of 145 years and is also the world’s largest non-ferrous metal exchange, is suspected of having a short position.
On March 7, London Nickel accelerated its rise on the basis of the previous four consecutive yangs, with a single-day increase of 72.67%, which stunned the market. But even crazier scenes followed: on March 8, the price of nickel rose like a runaway horse. Diek reached 60,000, 70,000, 80,000, 90,000, and 100,000, and the highest increase that day reached 102%. .
Such extreme market situation is unprecedented in the trading records of London Nickel. For this reason, the LME has repeatedly dealt with it: First, the trading of London Nickel will be suspended from 8:15 on March 8 (London time); the second is Cancellation of all trades executed on or following 00:00 UK time on 8 March 2022 (i.e. 08:00 GMT on 8 March 2022) on or following the in-office telemarketing and LMEselect.
Not afraid of the “three-board forced leveling” rule, the Shanghai nickel three-connected board aggravates the suspicion of forced position
However, when the gourd was pressed, the scoop floated up. Although Lun Nickel suspended trading, the Shanghai nickel futures of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in China took over the banner of short-selling. As soon as the night market opened on March 8, the Shanghai nickel contracts were all over the line. The daily limit is already the third daily limit for Shanghai Nickel.
In this regard, a market person pointed out to reporters that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has a “three-board forced leveling” regulation, and now the Shanghai nickel “three-connected board” market has met the requirements of this regulation, and the London Stock Exchange has cancelled the March 8 transaction. , but the main contract still dares to increase the limit. Obviously, the bulls are not satisfied with the current price, and it is expected that the London nickel will continue to rise sharply following the resumption of trading.
“From the history of the LME, every time the futures price of a certain product is ‘see you for a long time’, there is a bloody liquidation event, and most of the victims are Chinese-funded enterprises, such as Zhu Yelun in 1997. Zinc futures incident, the 2005 State Reserve copper incident, etc. Judging from the current situation of the joint venture between London Nickel and Shanghai Nickel, the news circulating in the market that a Chinese-funded enterprise held a large number of short orders and was forced to take positions is probably inseparable. “.
The rumored Chinese-funded company to be squeezed is Tsingshan Holdings, while the bulls of the squeezed position are Glencore. According to public information, Tsingshan Holdings is a private enterprise specializing in stainless steel production. It has formed a whole industrial chain layout from nickel mining, ferronickel smelting to stainless steel smelting, stainless steel continuous casting billet production and stainless steel plate, rod and wire processing. Production of raw materials, intermediate products and new energy batteries in the field of new energy, mainly used in energy storage systems and electric vehicles and other fields.
Are the rumours regarding foreclosure true? The reporter tried to connect with Tsingshan Holdings for relevant interviews, but the company’s line staff hurriedly hung up the phone as soon as they heard that it was a consulting futures squeeze. The reporter noticed that since March 8, the official website of Tsingshan Holdings has been unable to open normally.
Although the other protagonist of the incident, Glencore related personnel told the media on March 8 that “the statement regarding the forced position is complete nonsense”. On March 8, Huayou Cobalt stated to the public that the rise in nickel prices this time was an obvious short-squeezing behavior, and foreign capital seized the loophole to maliciously go long. At the same time, due to more cooperation with Tsingshan Holding Group, the stock price of Huayou Cobalt encountered a lower limit on March 8, and it fell to the lower limit as soon as the market opened on March 9.
MCC and GEM both deny involvement in nickel futures trading
Since Tsingshan Holdings has not been listed, investors originally held an attitude of “it doesn’t matter to themselves” whether it was squeezed. However, with the continuous drop of Huayou Cobalt, the market has begun to be highly vigilant regarding whether related companies involved in nickel in the current market are participating in nickel futures trading, and they have flocked to investor interaction platforms for consultation.
Connect with Datayes! Statistics show that there are 21 listed companies in the current market that belong to the metal nickel concept sector, the famous ones are Huayou Cobalt, China Metallurgical (601618.SH) and China Molybdenum (603993.SH). As of March 8, the total market value of this sector is 740.907 billion yuan, and the annualized net profit in 2022 is only regarding 43.1 billion yuan; if any relevant companies participate in nickel futures trading and are forced to position, compared with the rumored nearly 100 million yuan A loss of billions of dollars would be a disaster.
Among the above-mentioned 21 metal nickel stocks, MCC, whose main business is related to nickel and is a state-owned enterprise, has become the first object of suspicion for investors. According to the data, among the nickel-cobalt hydroxide products accumulatively produced by the MCC Ramu project held by China MCC in 2021, it contains 31,594 tons of nickel and 2,955 tons of cobalt; and resource development is regarded as one of its four main businesses. So, are MCC and its subsidiaries involved in nickel futures trading? What are the influences of this “demon nickel” violent pull?
In this regard, MCC emphasized through the investor interaction platform on March 8 that “MCC, as a centrally-owned listed company, strictly abides by the regulatory requirements of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission on the prudent development of financial derivatives business, and currently does not have any nickel futures business”; and pointed out that , the current international nickel metal futures price is affected by geopolitical, low inventory and financial transaction factors, and the sharp and rapid rise has been separated from the fundamentals; “The company is an important international wet nickel production and technology exporting enterprise, the high price naturally affects the The company is beneficial, but in the short term, we must also pay attention to the ability of the downstream market to undertake, and in the medium and long term, we must also consider the healthy development of the entire new energy industry chain.”
GEM (002340.SZ) is also one of the key targets of investors’ questioning. According to the data, the company’s main business is to recover and utilize waste cobalt and nickel resources, and to produce and sell ultra-fine cobalt and nickel powder materials and other products; in recent years, it has focused on the development of ternary precursors, cobalt tetroxide and power battery recycling as the main body of new energy. Business, the raw materials required are mainly nickel, cobalt, manganese and other metal raw materials. Therefore, with the surge of nickel, GEM has become the focus of investors’ attention, and they have left messages on the investor interactive platform to inquire regarding the sharp rise in nickel prices. influence, and questioned whether it participated in nickel futures trading?
In this regard, GEM made it clear that it “never participates in futures operations, and does a solid job in the real economy. GEM is a technological innovation-oriented production enterprise. Through technological upgrading and process optimization, the company improves product quality and performance and reduces costs, thereby earning Take reasonable profits and never make money through the market. The surge in nickel futures prices will not have a negative impact on the company.”
In addition, GEM also emphasized that the ternary precursor material production industry has formed a mature “metal price + processing fee” pricing model, “the cobalt and nickel metal raw materials required for production are purchased by the company, and the company guarantees the stability of profits by charging processing fees. and growth, avoiding the impact of metal price fluctuations on the company”; “The company has deployed nickel resources and recycled nickel resources in Indonesia, fully guaranteed the safety of the raw material supply system, and enjoyed the advantages of low-cost nickel resources. Short-term and medium- and long-term nickel resources are within a reasonable range. The increase has a positive effect on the company’s performance growth.”
GEM previously stated on the investor interaction platform that the company has a nickel resource project in Morowali Industrial Park, Indonesia; currently, the project is progressing as planned. The key equipment of the main body was officially shipped to Indonesia as early as mid-May 2021 and the installation was completed, thus making the project transition from the basic construction stage to the rapid construction stage of equipment installation. “The Indonesian nickel resource project is scheduled to be put into operation in the first half of 2022 to meet the company’s strategic needs for nickel resources in the development of precursor materials.”
Several companies respond to the impact of the surge in nickel futures
Regardless of whether to participate in nickel futures trading, what impact will this have on relevant nickel-related enterprises in terms of the rise in nickel prices?
“From the logic of ‘the futures go up, the spot goes up, and nickel products also go up’, the rise in nickel prices should be considered positive for us and other companies in the industry.” Relevant staff of the securities department of Jilin Jien Nickel Industry Co., Ltd. (Jien 5, 400069) expressed this in a telephone interview with reporters. However, he also emphasized that the volatility of nickel prices is too great. Even if it has risen a lot now, it may fall at any time, so it cannot be overemphasized on its favorable properties.
According to the data, Jien 5 is mainly engaged in the production and sales of nickel sulfate, high nickel matte, electrolytic nickel, nickel hydroxide, nickel chloride, copper sulfate, copper concentrate, sulfuric acid and other products. ”, but was delisted to the two net boards in 2018 due to poor management. In the telephone interview, the above-mentioned staff revealed to reporters that the company has been profitable for two consecutive years. If it can continue to make profits in 2022, it can reapply for trading on the main board.
Compared with the old “nickel king” Gene 5, Qingdao Zhongcheng (300208 .SZ) has become a new indicator of the current round of “demon nickel”: it rose 12.84% on March 7 and 18.46% on March 8.
On the evening of March 8, Qingdao Zhongcheng further described its nickel projects in its announcement on abnormal fluctuations in stock trading. The announcement shows that Qingdao Zhongcheng acquired the nickel mine held by PT. Madani Sejahtera in May 2014 (the company holds a 95% stake), and the corresponding intangible asset value was 49.06 million yuan; it acquired in July 2015. The nickel ore held by PT. Bumi Morowali Utama (the company holds 80% of the income right of the nickel ore), the corresponding intangible asset value is 59.9294 million yuan; “At present, the company’s main business income does not involve the sale of nickel ore, The nickel ore held by the company has no impact on the company’s performance.”
The announcement emphasized that it signed the “Qingdao Indonesia Comprehensive Industrial Park Entry Enterprise Agreement” with the investor of ferronickel smelting in Qingdao Indonesia Comprehensive Industrial Park, “The company can supply nickel ore to it, but the investor’s RKEF ferronickel smelting project has not yet been put into production. Therefore, the company does not conduct mining and sales of nickel ore. Since the price of nickel ore is affected by multiple factors such as international nickel prices and the supply and demand relationship of nickel ore, the short-term fluctuations are relatively large. There is uncertainty regarding the impact on performance.”
Qingdao Zhongcheng also pointed out that in recent years, the company has made every effort to promote the construction of the RKEF ferronickel smelting project, and has not conducted a comprehensive and detailed survey of the above-mentioned nickel mines, “the rough survey data disclosed by the company cannot represent the survey data and reserves of the entire nickel mining area. , there is great uncertainty in the final actual reserves and grade of the company’s nickel ore.”
Affected by this announcement, Qingdao Zhongcheng opened sharply lower on March 9, and as of noon closing, recorded a decline of 18.46%.
In addition to the new and old “nickel kings”, many companies among the above-mentioned 21 metal nickel concept stocks have recently disclosed their nickel business on the investor interactive platform.
Xingye Mining (000426.SZ) recently pointed out on the investor interaction platform that Tanghe Times Mining, a subsidiary of the company, has nickel and cobalt metal reserves. Mineral Exploration Report” Mineral Resource Reserve Review Recording Certificate (Henan National Land Resources Reserve Word[2008＞57号），估算矿区探明的内蕴经济资源量+控制的内蕴经济资源量+推断的内蕴经济资源量合计铜镍矿石量为9754.9万吨，其中伴生资源钯金属15703千克。
公开资料显示，唐河时代项目于2016年7月因故开始停产整顿，直到2021年6月，兴业矿业决定重新启动唐河时代工程项目，预计2023年可实现投产。而截至3月7日，“唐河时代恢复建设工作仍在推进中”。
而盛达资源（000603.SZ）则透露，其投资的金业环保在2021年年底完成了20万吨含镍危废的处置产能的全部建设（前端火法工艺），并生产销售了部分产品，主要为镍冰铜（低冰镍）。由于20万吨产能建设的完成，金业环保今年将开始为上市公司贡献业绩，同时主要产品将从低冰镍升级为高冰镍。另外，子公司金山矿业已建成生产规模3.5万吨/年的一水硫酸锰生产线，进一步提纯后的高纯硫酸锰主要用于制备新能源电池正极三元材料（镍钴锰酸锂）的前驱体。公司于2021年投资设立了北京盛达新能源股份有限公司，以抓住新能源产业发展机遇，进一步落实公司新能源金属发展战略，在品种选择上，将着重关注镍、钴、锰、锂等新能源材料相关金属资源。
天奇股份（002009.SZ）表示，其全资子公司天奇金泰阁开展废旧电池回收资源化业务多年，位居行业前列；而目前行业内回收钴、锰、镍的工艺较为成熟，平均回收率约在90%以上。
天奇金泰阁已于2021年8月完成一轮碳酸锂产线扩产，碳酸锂产能由1,400吨/年提升至2,000吨/年；钴锰镍产能为3500金吨/年。2021年实际年产量详见公司将于4月19日披露的《2021年度报告》。此外，天奇金泰阁已于2021年下半年启动建设扩产技改项目。该项目总投资为4.4亿元，最终将形成年处理5万吨废旧锂电池的生产能力，从而将钴锰镍的产量由3500金吨/年提升至12000金吨/年，碳酸锂的产量由2000吨/年提升至5000吨/年。该项目预计于2022年4月前后建成投产。
此外，洛阳钼业则强调，其拥有有铜、钴、钼、钨、铌、磷、镍及金独特、稀缺的产品组合，且各资源品种均具有领先的行业地位，资源品种覆盖了基本金属、特种金属和贵金属，与新能源应用领域紧密相关，同时通过磷介入农业应用领域，有效抵御和降低周期波动影响；公司拥有丰富的资源储备，且资源禀赋优良，刚果（金）TFM铜钴矿和KFM铜钴矿均为世界级项目，资源量丰富，铜钴矿石品位高，极具勘探潜力；公司拥有领先的生产技术，成本极具竞争优势；2019年收购贸易公司IXM，打造了矿业+贸易模式，创造新的利润增长点；公司推行并实施先进的可持续发展政策，护航公司长期稳健发展，2021年MSCI评级由BBB提升至A级，跻身全球矿业企业第一梯队。
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