Just a few days have passed since Hurricane Rafael hit Cuba, leaving behind a trail of destruction in Artemisa, Mayabeque and Havana, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is already monitoring a new weather system in the Caribbean. This is an area of low pressure located to the east of the island of Cuba which has a probability of cyclonic development.
Although Rafael has moved towards the southeast of the Gulf of Mexico, meteorological authorities have issued a new forecast that warns of the possible formation of another phenomenon in the region near the Greater Antilles. Specifically east of Cuba.
Conditions in the Caribbean and possible development of the system
The NHC has reported the presence of disorganized showers and storms associated with a low pressure trough that extends from the center of the Caribbean Sea to the northeast, passing through the island of Hispaniola and reaching the southwest Atlantic.
This system, although in the development phase, has the potential to gradually intensify in the coming days, while moving in a westerly direction, near the Greater Antilles.
Although the probabilities of formation within 48 hours are low, at 20%, the NHC does not rule out an increase in the possibilities of development within the next seven days.
This system could generate intense and localized rain in areas such as the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas, which could lead to flooding in some vulnerable areas.
Forecast for the next few days
Atmospheric conditions indicate that the system will remain in the central and southwestern Caribbean, moving parallel to the coasts of the Greater Antilles.
Although its development into a tropical cyclone is unlikely in the short term, the situation could change over time. The NHC will continue to issue updates, given the instability that still prevails in the Caribbean area after the passage of Hurricane Rafael.
Effects in areas affected by Rafael
In Cuba, the recent destruction caused by Rafael has left the western provinces in a critical situation, with damaged infrastructure and extensive recovery efforts underway.
Cuban authorities and emergency agencies maintain their vigilance over this new system in the Caribbean, aware that an additional phenomenon could complicate repair and recovery work in the affected areas.
The NHC reminds the inhabitants of the Caribbean to monitor the evolution of this system through its official channels, since although the probabilities of its formation are low, the impact in the form of intense rains could bring with it risks of flooding.
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**Interview with Dr. Emma Reynolds, Meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us, Dr. Reynolds. Just a few days ago, Hurricane Rafael left significant destruction in Cuba. Can you give us a brief overview of the current situation in the Caribbean?
**Dr. Reynolds:** Thank you for having me. Yes, Hurricane Rafael passed through Cuba with devastating effects, particularly in Artemisa, Mayabeque, and Havana. As the storm has now moved southeast into the Gulf of Mexico, we’re closely monitoring a new low-pressure system forming to the east of Cuba. This system has the potential for cyclonic development, which is concerning given the recent impact of Hurricane Rafael.
**Interviewer:** What specific factors are contributing to the development of this new weather system?
**Dr. Reynolds:** The area currently has disorganized showers and storms, which are part of a low-pressure trough extending from the Caribbean to the northeast, affecting parts of Hispaniola and the southwestern Atlantic. Atmospheric conditions are favorable for this system to gradually intensify over the next few days as it moves westward toward the Greater Antilles.
**Interviewer:** How likely is it that this new system will become a significant storm?
**Dr. Reynolds:** The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the probabilities of formation closely. While it’s still in the early stages, the current forecast suggests that conditions could allow for strengthening. However, it’s important for residents in the affected areas to stay informed and prepared, as the situation can evolve rapidly.
**Interviewer:** What advice do you have for people living in areas potentially affected by this new system?
**Dr. Reynolds:** I urge everyone to stay updated with the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. Ensure you have a disaster plan in place, including emergency supplies, and stay tuned for any alerts or warnings. It’s better to be prepared in case the situation escalates.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Reynolds, for your insights. We appreciate your time.
**Dr. Reynolds:** Thank you for having me. Stay safe, everyone.
