Recently, a friend sent me an intriguing snapshot of a sleek Lexus adorned with the vanity plates “VICPIC.” In addition, I’ve been inundated with snapshots of people’s parlay bets, many of which are directly opposing my weekly picks.
My response? “You’re welcome.”
Much like the jester at a circus, whose job it is to dazzle and entertain, I don my shiny red nose each week, surveying the lineup of games. With an exaggerated flair, I metaphorically jump, dance, and squeeze my noise-maker as I pick my selections. This week, my costume of choice is the ever-optimistic Daniel Jones jersey. The league is filled with a disheartening number of underperforming teams—around eleven, if I count correctly—and an alarming rise in lackluster coaching. In this kaleidoscope of chaos, I find myself utterly baffled, as I appear to be enduring one of my worst seasons for game picks.
The New England Patriots decided to start Jacoby Brissett over Drake Maye for what felt like an interminable stretch, driven by concerns over his safety due to their woeful offensive line. Yet, the troubling truth is that when pressured, Brissett ranks 24th in EPA (Expected Points Added) per dropback, 19th in success rate, and 24th in first down plus touchdown rate. In stark contrast, Maye boasts impressive statistics, landing him sixth, tenth, and ninth in those same categories.
While the Patriots have managed to secure victories in two of their last three games, this week, I’m opting to steer clear of them. As a result, you might want to consider rolling with Maye, who is currently drawing comparisons to a budget-friendly Josh Allen.
All hail me, the “Fade King.”
Last week’s record: 4-10 against the spread; 0-5 on best bets.
Season record: 51-85-2 against the spread; 15-28-2 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM, locked in at the time the picks were made. Click here for live odds.
The Eagles have rallied to win their last five games, showcasing a formidable defense that has restricted two teams to under 50 passing yards during that stretch. They are now set to face off against Jayden Daniels, who, after being blitzed relentlessly by the Steelers last week and having his running lanes effectively snuffed out, will need to adjust. The Eagles, while keen on replicating this strategy, currently blitz only 20% of the time, ranking them fifth-lowest in the NFL, and overall, the Eagles sit at 19th in pressure rate. On the flip side, the Commanders’ defense has shown marked improvement, largely attributed to what many have dubbed the best free-agent signing of the offseason—edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr. He currently ranks second in defensive production rating (62.25), third in sacks (8.5), and fifth in pass pressure percentage (18.8%) for the bargain price of just $3.25 million for the season.
The pick: Commanders
Caleb Williams faced an uphill battle last week, absorbing an astounding nine sacks at the hands of the Patriots, and that’s without even being known for a particularly aggressive pass rush. Additionally, Williams struggled with accuracy, it appears the once-reliable Keenan Allen may have quietly retired, and this unfortunate trifecta sealed the fate of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Meanwhile, Jordan Love is expected to return after a much-needed bye week and leads the league in air yards per attempt (9.2) and sack percentage (2.8%), but he notably struggles against the blitz, ranking last in EPA per dropback against it (-0.46) and second last in interception percentage (4.2%). However, he enjoys a favorable matchup with the Bears, winning both encounters so far.
The pick: Packers
The pick: Lions
Raiders coach Antonio Pierce has attracted attention for his outspoken comments regarding Tua Tagovailoa’s health, suggesting that retirement might be a wise option after his latest concussion. Yet, here we are, witnessing Tagovailoa actively seeking to hand the Raiders their sixth consecutive loss. His performance in the three games following his return hasn’t been stellar, particularly agains the Cardinals, Bills, and Rams. The Raiders resonate with a distinct challenge; despite previously struggling against the run, their pass rush has recently diminished. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ defense seems to be regaining its form, as displayed in their recent victory over the Rams. The Raiders will again deploy Gardner Minshew II at quarterback, eliciting a shrug from Pierce as he exclaimed, “Why not?” Alarmingly, the Raiders have recorded the worst EPA per rush rate (-0.30) through ten weeks in the history of the league’s last 25 seasons, scoring an alarming 798th overall. With a bye week behind them, expectations for improvement are low.
The pick: Dolphins
The Rams showcased a commendable defense against the Dolphins, yet their offense struggled to maintain momentum. Facing the Patriots should offer a change in fortune, as New England’s defense has been unable to effectively stop the run or apply pressure against quarterbacks not named Caleb Williams. Rams running back Kyren Williams ranks third in carries (81) and fourth in touches (92) over the last four weeks, though he sits 31st in EPA per rush (-0.24) and EPA per target/rush (-0.21). Matthew Stafford may have experienced a downturn against the Dolphins, but he still maintains an edge over rookie Maye. Meanwhile, the Patriots are grappling with ongoing issues on their offensive line, while the Rams have excelled defensively, ranking second in both sacks (15) and interceptions (seven) over the last four weeks. Defensive back Jaylen McCollough currently leads the league in snaps per splash play at an impressive 10.5.
The pick: Rams
Marquez Valdes-Scantling delivered a clutch performance for the Saints last week, preserving victory for interim coach Darren Rizzi. Although I backed that pick, my enthusiasm wanes when considering that they now face a team that has struggled to contain the run. The Saints have allowed the worst defensive rush EPA across the last two seasons through Week 10, and predictably, rank last in EPA per rush rate (-0.07). The Saints’ roster has also suffered injuries to key cornerbacks, which should give Jameis Winston ample opportunity to shine against his former teammate, Derek Carr, in his return to New Orleans. Ultimately, the Browns are poised to pressure Carr into making costly mistakes, causing the Saints’ smiles following last week’s triumph over the Falcons to swiftly fade away.
The pick: Browns
Reflecting upon my previous assumptions, I must admit that I misjudged the Ravens’ defensive capabilities. Despite Lamar Jackson launching heroic efforts, successfully carrying his team to cover the spread not once but twice in the fourth quarter, they allowed the Bengals to march down the field and clinch victory. This week, they face a Steelers team that previously limited Jackson to just ten points in a match last season (the one that Tyler Huntley started is a different conversation). The Steelers showcased outstanding defensive skills last week, holding Jayden Daniels to a mere five rushing yards, even though he had averaged 51 per game prior. Positioned for another defensive triumph, Russell Wilson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth are set to test the Ravens’ defense.
The pick: Steelers
Sam Darnold experienced difficult moments last week, culminating in three interceptions—leading to cries of “Regression!” Yet, what comes next? Are we genuinely prepared to endorse Will Levis against the blitz-heavy Vikings defense? Levis has exhibited signs of strain when pressured, with the Titans managing to score over 20 points in a game only once this season. The Titans have regressed significantly, standing at an abysmal last in drive score percentage at just 24.56. Currently, they rank 31st in defensive points allowed, conceding 30.8 points per game. As for Darnold, it seems he has made a return of sorts.
The pick: Vikings
Choosing to bet against the Jets last week felt like a no-brainer—another resounding statement from the Fade King. Aaron Rodgers isn’t the player he once was, and the addition of Davante Adams is unlikely to rectify the situation (Adams has dropped a few passes as well). Presently, Rodgers holds the lowest EPA per dropback rate in the AFC East at -0.02, which places him 24th overall, barely edging out my guy Daniel Jones (-0.08) in MetLife Stadium’s quarterback hierarchy. Yet, the Colts face their own turmoil. Their quarterback management has been erratic, and their defense has consistently appeared lackluster. However, Rodgers possesses weapons in Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, which gives him hope. Meanwhile, the Jets defense has noticeably suffered a decline since parting ways with Robert Saleh, compelling us to lean again on mathematics and take the free point, as I had the Jets at -3.
The pick: Colts
I’ve decided to hold off on making disparaging remarks regarding Bo Nix’s throwing abilities. He has shown significant improvement since the season’s onset and executed a commendable effort during what was intended to be a decisive drive against the Chiefs last week. Nix should have the luxury of time this week, facing a weakened Falcons pass rush, bolstered by the impressive performances of Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey, both of whom rank among the best tackles in the league. The Falcons, reeling from a poor loss to the Saints, will need to contend with Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts, who can exploit the Broncos’ defensive weaknesses. While we refrain from scrutinizing Nix for the time being, it’s essential to recognize that Kirk Cousins stands as the finest quarterback on the field, leading the league in tight-window attempts and completions.
The pick: Falcons
Best bets: Usual trends suggest steering clear of road favorites, yet I’m endorsing the Rams and Vikings to prevail, facing the Patriots and Titans respectively. Additionally, two enticing road underdogs in the Browns (taking on the Saints) and the Falcons (visiting the Broncos) pair well with a solid home favorite in the 49ers, who look to exploit a struggling Seahawks defense.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): The ever-entertaining Jayden Daniels Experience returns to the national spotlight, as the Commanders are positioned at +3.5 and +150 on the moneyline.
— TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic’s Larry Holder.
– What factors contributed to the Commanders’ defensive improvement that could impact their game against the Eagles?
It seems like you’re giving a comprehensive analysis of various NFL teams and their performances, all while adding a bit of humor and character to your picks. Let’s break down some of the picks you’ve made and the rationale behind them:
1. **Commanders vs. Eagles**:
– **Pick: Commanders**
– You noted the Commanders’ improved defense and highlighted their key player, Dante Fowler Jr. This matchup against an Eagles team that may not apply heavy blitzing could allow the Commanders’ defense to handle Jayden Daniels effectively.
2. **Packers vs. Bears**:
– **Pick: Packers**
– With Jordan Love returning after a bye and maintaining strong air yard stats, it appears you’ve got faith in him against a struggling Bears’ defense.
3. **Dolphins vs. Raiders**:
– **Pick: Dolphins**
– Despite Tua Tagovailoa’s challenges, you’ve pointed out the Raiders’ ongoing struggles, especially with their abysmal statistics against the run. The Dolphins’ defense seems to be on an upswing as well.
4. **Rams vs. Patriots**:
– **Pick: Rams**
– You emphasize the Rams’ recent defensive success, especially in pressuring quarterbacks, against a Patriots offense dealing with its own line issues.
5. **Browns vs. Saints**:
– **Pick: Browns**
– Citing the Saints’ struggles against the run and injury issues within their secondary, you’ve leaned toward a Browns’ victory, particularly in how they might pressure Derek Carr.
6. **Steelers vs. Ravens**:
– **Pick: Steelers**
– Praise for the Steelers’ defensive talents and the Ravens’ struggles keeps you on the side of Pittsburgh in what could be a tight matchup.
7. **Vikings vs. Titans**:
– **Pick: Vikings**
– Given the Titans’ offensive struggles and Darnold’s recent performance, you’ve decided the Vikings would fare better, assuming their defensive knack can handle the Titans’ pressure.
8. **Jets and Colts**:
– It seems like you’ve been critical of the Jets’ quarterback situation but also noted issues with the Colts. You appear inclined to favor the Jets, perhaps due to their defense.
Your whimsical, jester-like approach brings a unique flair to this analysis, and while your recent performance at 4-10 may not be ideal, your comprehensive breakdown of player performances and injuries provides a rich background for each pick. Here’s hoping future selections yield better results for you!