2023-11-09 13:30:00
NFL
Injuries, trades and firings can turn a contender into an also-ran. We take a look at what the season holds as we enter its second half
Back in September, I made my preseason predictions for 2023. With the season at its midpoint, I’ve looked back to see what I got right and what I got wrong (conclusion: nobody’s perfect).
Best team not to make the playoffs
Preseason pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m sticking with the Steelers. Their superb defense still means they’re far from a bad team, but their awful offense means they’ll slip out of the wildcard spot they currently occupy.
The Steelers are who we thought they were: a flawed team being propped up by a quality defense in a season of collapsing offensive production across the league. On any given week, the Steelers can beat anyone. Their pass rush is among the best in the league. And now that the team have handed playing time to talented rookie Joey Porter Jr, hiding, as much as possible, the fossilized Patrick Peterson, they have enough coverage chops on the back-end, too.
17 years, zero losing seasons: Mike Tomlin’s coaching genius rumbles on
The issues are on offense (fun fact: Texans quarterback CJ Stroud has thrown more career touchdown passes (14) in eight games than Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (13) has in 21 starts). We’re approaching the mutiny stage of the Matt Canada era. He cycled through seven jobs in college football in nine years before making his way up to the pros, each stop following a familiar pattern: grand statements of innovation followed by a thudding realization that most of his offense is nonsense.
Even by Canada’s standards, this season has been a failure. Pittsburgh lead the league in three-and-outs, failing to pick up a first down on 47% of their drives. There’s no run game, Canada has struggled to get the team’s playmakers involved and Pickett has regressed. In the RBSDM compositethe dorkiest but also most in-depth quarterback measurement, Pickett ranks 31st among eligible players, ahead of only, yep, Zach Wilson. Pickett was never going to be a game-breaker in the NFL, but any chance he has at being a competent starter is being harmed by Canada.
Disaster waiting to happen …
Preseason pick: Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
It feels silly, on reflection, that the Las Vegas Raiders were not the obvious pick here. Josh McDaniels showed no signs of learning from his time in Denver. McDaniels spent the 12 years between head coaching jobs evaluating his time with the Broncos and appeared to conclude that everyone else was the problem. Which is why he’s 20-33 all-time as a head coach and 12-29 in his last 41 games.
MVP
Lamar Jackson is in line for his second MVP award. Photograph: Alex Brandon/AP
Preseason pick: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Midseason pick: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Would anyone like to claim this year’s MVP award? Typically, it goes to a quarterback with the best narrative. Either they’re a fresh face, a resurgent star, or someone who has been overlooked for too long. Nobody slots comfortably into one of those camps this season.
NFL defenses beware: the Lamar Jackson leviathan may have woken up
Lawrence and the Jags should win the AFC South, but his performances haven’t been consistent or eye-popping enough to make a strong case. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts have not been at their supernova best this year, while Josh Allen continues to frustrate. Joe Burrow’s early-season injury ruled him out before he might even get out of the blocks, and Brock Purdy’s midseason stumble has made his campaign a non-starter.
Jackson, then, is the leading candidate at the moment. The Ravens are the most overwhelming team in the NFL in 2023, outpacing everyone else in whichever metric you choose. They’re top in DVOA, EPA per play and point differential.
Plenty of the credit for that falls on the defense – and the wizardry of coordinator Mike Macdonald. But Jackson is playing the most refined football of his careerleading eligible quarterbacks in completion percentage and rushing yards. If Jackson can stay injury-free for the rest of the season, he should win his second MVP.
Rookie to watch
Preseason pick: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Midseason pick: CJ Stroud and Will Anderson, Houston Texans
Robinson is an exhilarating player but has been a little underused in Atlanta. Meanwhile, sales of popcorn must be off the charts in Houston. They have the two most exhilarating rookies in the league (non-Bijan division). It’s rare for a team to hit on two first-round picks (although the Jets managed it last year). But it’s rare to the point of absurdity to hit on a franchise quarterback and a franchise pass rusher in the same year.
The bulk of the focus is, rightly, on Stroud. From the embers of the Deshaun Watson debacle, the Texans now have a quarterback they can build around. Stroud isn’t just a star for the future; he’s a star right now.
But let’s not forget regarding Anderson. He is off to a Khalil Mack-like start to his career. He stirs up carnage on every down. He’s a dominant run defender who has cracked the Top 20 as a pass rusher. Anderson ranks 18th among all pass rushers in pressure rate v true pass sets. That may not sound high, but few rookie pass rushers cross that threshold in their debut year, and rarely, if ever, over the first-half of the season. The last two rookies to do that? Micah Parsons and Nick Bosa.
Division champions
The Miami Dolphins’ turbocharged offense has seen them rise to the top of the AFC East. Photograph: Jasen Vinlove/USA Today Sports
AFC North – Preseason pick: Cincinnati Bengals. Midseason pick: Baltimore Ravens.
The Bengals were hampered by Joe Burrow’s early season injury struggles. He’s since recovered but the Ravens are the most complete team in football and will be hard to catch.
AFC East – Preseason pick: New York Jets. Midseason pick: Miami Dolphins.
Aaron Rodgers’s achilles injury blew up the Jets’ season, even with their formidable defense. Miami’s next five games are once morest the Raiders, the Jets (twice), the Commanders and the Titans. They might win all five and have the division wrapped up before they face the Bills in Week 17.
AFC West – Preseason pick: Kansas City Chiefs. Midseason pick: Kansas City Chiefs.
There are tricky games left on the schedule, but no one will catch the Chiefs.
AFC South – Preseason pick: Jacksonville Jaguars. Midseason pick: Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Texans are (rightly) the flavor of the month. But the Jaguars are still the best team in the division.
NFC North – Preseason pick: Detroit Lions. Midseason pick: Detroit Lions.
Do you believe in the Lions as a legitimate contender yet? You should.
NFC East – Preseason pick: Philadelphia Eagles. Midseason pick: Philadelphia Eagles.
Philly’s next four games: at the Chiefs, v the Bills, v the 49ers, at the Cowboys. Split those four, and the Eagles will be cruising to the NFC’s No 1 seed.
NFC West – Preseason pick: San Francisco 49ers. Midseason pick: San Francisco 49ers.
Some of the shine has come off the Niners over the past month. But they’re still the second-best team in the NFC.
NFC South – Preseason pick: New Orleans Saints. Midseason pick: New Orleans Saints.
The Saints are the best team of a bad bunch and have an easy schedule from here on out.
Wildcard teams
Preseason picks – AFC: Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens. NFC: Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks.
Midseason picks – AFC: Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns. NFC: Seattle Seahawks, Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings.
The Browns’ defense is brilliant and should carry them to the playoffs if Deshaun Watson can be somewhere near average. In the NFC, the Vikings wildcard place says more regarding the conference’s lack of strong teams than Minnesota’s quality (it’s easy to cheer for Josh Dobbs though).
Super Bowl champions
Preseason pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Midseason pick: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs’ issues on offense have been well documented. But Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have a way of figuring out any teething issues by the time the postseason rolls around. The Chiefs have a top-five defensethe finest during the Mahomes-Reid partnership. A healthy Mahomes with a suffocating defense will be tough to stop in the postseason.
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