New Taiwan dollarThe biggest rally in the past 25 years may be reversed, and it may fall to 33 yuan before the first quarter of next year. The reason is that the upcoming global economic recession will impact Taiwan’s technology exports.
Mizuho Bank and RBC Capital Markets forecast that the U.S. dollar has appreciated more than 4% this month.New Taiwan dollarmay fall toNew Taiwan dollar 33 yuan to regarding 1 US dollar.New Taiwan dollarThe exchange rate once morest the U.S. dollar on Monday (28th) toNew Taiwan dollar The price was closed at 31.012 yuan, with a heavy depreciation of 1.07 cents.
“The latest rally has put theNew Taiwan dollarRecovered some of the lost ground, but as the semiconductor economy deteriorated, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) hovered at a low level, and economic growth supportedNew Taiwan dollarThe argument seems untenable. “
HP, Dell (DELL-US) and other major technology companies are laying off workers one following another in response to the continued decline in demand for personal computers (PCs). China’s economic slowdown is also not conducive to Taiwan’s exports. China is Taiwan’s largest export market, and export sales are a major source of foreign exchange earnings.
TSMC (2330-TW), MediaTek (2454-TW), Hon Hai (2317-TW) and other top three technology giants in Taiwan may still have eye-catching profit performance in a short period of time, but Bloomberg Industry Research strategist Marvin Chen believes that the profit growth of Taiwan’s technology industry may slow down or even shrink next year.
althoughNew Taiwan dollarIt has rebounded recently, but with the widening interest rate gap between Taiwan and the United States, this yearNew Taiwan dollarThe exchange rate once morest the US dollar is still depreciating by more than 10%, and it may record the largest decline since 1997 for the whole year. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised interest rates by 375 basis points this year, but Taiwan’s central bank has only raised interest rates by 50 basis points.
“In the medium term, we expectNew Taiwan dollarIt will return to the price of 32-33 yuan, because the economic recession will drag down the demand for Taiwan’s electronic exports. The pace of interest rate hikes by the central bank is also slower than that of the Fed. Compared with neighboring countries,New Taiwan dollarwill also remain weak. “
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