The US Institute for the Study of War revealed that “Russian forces have not made any significant progress” on March 20, and are instead establishing defensive positions and preparing to deploy more artillery and weapons around Kyiv.
In an analysis published on Sunday, the institute said that the Ukrainian forces repelled the continuous Russian efforts to seize the city of Izyum, southeast of Kharkiv, and inflicted heavy losses on the Russian forces that did not conduct any other offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine.
Nevertheless, “the Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress in the Luhansk region and around Mariupol, but they have not conducted any offensive operations towards Mykolaiv or Kryvyi Rih,” according to the institute.
The Ukrainian General Staff stated for the first time that the Kremlin is preparing itself for a “long war” in Ukraine and is implementing increasingly harsh mobilization measures, including the deployment of young “members of military organizations” aged 17-18 and that most units in the 1st Army Corps It is made up of “population mobilized”, rather than trained soldiers, and faces a shortage of morale and equipment.
Quoting from the Ukrainian military, he said that the Russian forces are facing increasing losses in the ranks of the officers, desertions and increasingly frequent insurrections.
The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate said Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu signed an order to prepare to accept members of the “Russian Youth Army”, a military youth organization run by the Kremlin.
It was reported that the Ukrainian forces killed three leaders of the Russian regiments during the past 24 hours.
He said that Ukrainian forces “launched more local counterattacks around Mykolaiv”.
The institute quoted the Ukrainian General Staff as saying that the Russian Wagner Group would facilitate the transfer of Libyan fighters from the forces of the leader of the Libyan National Army, Khalifa Haftar, to Ukraine.
The report quoted the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) as saying that the number of Russian rebel personnel who refuse to fight orders is “sharply increasing” in the Kherson and Mikonayev regions.
Intelligence reported that another group of Russian mercenaries arrived in Ukraine with the aim of “eliminating the highest military and political leadership of Ukraine”, including President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Operations
The institute said that the Russian forces participate in several axes, including the main ones in Kyiv and supportive axes in Kharkiv, Dnipro River, Chernhiv, Luhansk and others.
He said Russia is likely seeking to create conditions for expanding the artillery and missile bombardment of Kiev by moving to an effective artillery range at its center after abandoning plans to encircle or attack the city in the coming weeks.
He also said that there are reports that Russian forces began laying minefields for the first time since the conflict began.
He said that Ukrainian forces launched local counterattacks around Brovary on March 20, cutting off supplies of fuel and food to Russian forces near Brovary and destroying an unspecified detachment of the 6th Russian Tank Regiment.
The Russian forces did not conduct significant activity near Kharkiv during the past 24 hours.
The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces were moving unspecified “high-powered artillery” while Ukrainian forces in Izyum repelled a Russian attempt to seize the city center.
As for the axis along the western bank of the Dnipro River, the Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations on this axis northwest of Kyiv, and the Ukrainian staff was quoted as saying that the Russian forces continued to strengthen defensive positions in the previously captured lands.
The Ukrainian General Staff and local Kharkiv regional authorities reported that Ukrainian forces inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces.
The analysis did not suggest that Russian forces would capture the city in the near term.
The analysis said that Russian and allied forces had made limited territorial gains north of Robijn, capturing the village of Varvarivka.
At noon on March 20, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued to attempt to seize the settlements of Robyzhn, Severodonetsk and Popasna, but were unable to break through the Ukrainian defenses.
The analysis said that Russian forces continued their slow advance to Mariupol on 20 March, albeit without any major territorial changes.
He added that the Russian forces and their allies continued to bombard the city, including with thermobaric munitions.
Russian officials were quoted as saying that the deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet for military affairs, Captain Andrei Pale, was killed in Mariupol on an unspecified date.