Kevin McCarthy, the Conservative leader in the Congress Chamber, wants to be elected Speaker of the House on Tuesday, almost two months following the midterms. It is usually a “ceremonial exercise with no big surprises,” writes the New York Times. Now, however, “a vortex of chaos” is feared, “which has not existed in the house for a century”. It is “far from certain” that McCarthy will hold the third highest office in the United States, according to Fox News.
The reason? In what may be his first term as speaker, McCarthy has a “historically small majority” and is “historically unpopular compared to other members of the House of Representatives who wanted to be speakers,” CNN commentator Harry Enten put it in a nutshell. The right wing of the party in particular might be fatal to McCarthy. Some representatives had refused to support him until the end and instead campaigned for the ultra-right opponent Andy Biggs.
McCarthy must be shaking
The deputy from the state of California can hardly afford any opponents. At the midterms in November, the Republicans had only won a narrow majority in the House of Representatives – the “red wave” expected by many did not materialize. The Republicans will make up 222 of the 435 MPs, which is just above the majority of 218 votes.
And McCarthy would normally need 218 votes to become chairman and follow in Nancy Pelosi’s footsteps. As things stand at present, he does not have that – at least five Republicans spoke out once morest him in the run-up to the election. As early as 2015, McCarthy failed in the election as speaker due to resistance from his own party colleagues.
“Not since Democrat John Nance Garner in 1931 has a potential first-time Speaker of the House had such a narrow majority,” CNN said. For the 57-year-old, the conditions are extremely bad. The threshold for a majority can only drop below 218 votes if enough MPs stay at home on the day of the election or just vote “present” instead of for a candidate.
Blockage feared in House of Representatives
In any case, the choice of speaker is at the top of the agenda on Tuesday. The chamber cannot start its work without a spokesman, since this is also responsible for swearing in the deputies. If McCarthy – who counts ex-President Donald Trump among his supporters – does not get a majority in the first ballot, then another will follow. This can be repeated until one speaker gets the majority. 100 years ago there were last elections. In 1855 and 1856, the procedure took more than two months and well over 100 election rounds.
The right wing of the party is aware of its power on the issue and has recently put McCarthy under significant pressure. Observers attributed the fact that McCarthy did not want to issue a “blank check” to Ukraine, for example, to the delicate situation within the party. This also explains why he promised ultra-conservatives like MP Marjorie Taylor Greene and MP Paul Gosar important committee posts.
The Democrats had excluded Greene from committee work in 2021, citing racist and anti-Semitic statements. Gosar circulated a video that same year that contained comic scenes in which he, as a superhero, attacked Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Democratic President Biden. It is also unclear whether the Republican George Santos, who was recently targeted by the judiciary, will actually be sworn in as a member of parliament.
Committees of inquiry as leverage
But what options do the Republicans actually have with a narrow majority in the House of Representatives? One thing is clear: With the expected blockades of the Senate, which is held by the Democrats, it is not to be expected that there will be any legislative initiatives of your own. Rather, the Republicans can initiate parliamentary investigations once morest Biden and his government.
Topics will include the chaotic troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, the situation on the border with Mexico and alleged political instrumentalization by the Justice Department and the FBI federal police.
Hunter Biden targeted by Republicans
Once once more, the party wants to take action once morest Biden’s son Hunter. Specifically, they want to investigate Hunter Biden’s business activities. Republicans accuse him of using his father’s important political position to do business in Ukraine and China.
Some Republicans are even calling for impeachment proceedings once morest Joe Biden and parts of his cabinet. Homeland Security Minister Alejandro Mayorkas, who is responsible for the border, is particularly targeted. But even if there were impeachments, they would ultimately fail in the Democrat-controlled Senate, which also meets on Tuesday.
Biden faces headwinds
However, the majority in the House of Representatives enables the Republicans to hinder the work of the Biden government. The conservatives can block all of Biden’s reform projects in the chamber. In his first two years in office, the 80-year-old had considerable difficulties with his reform agenda because the Republicans have a blocking minority in the Senate.
The loss of the House of Representatives is another hurdle for Biden. Reforms of abortion or gun laws seem hopeless. On many other pieces of legislation, such as the annual budget bills, the parties usually agree on compromises, although significant conflicts regularly arise.
Senate majority crucial for Democrats
The fact that the Senate remains in the hands of the Democrats following the November midterms is of great importance to Biden. Had Republicans gained control of both chambers of Congress, they might have passed a series of legislation that Biden would then have had to veto. Now the Democrats might stop legislative initiatives from the Republican-controlled House of Representatives in the Senate.
However, the Senate majority is particularly important for appointments to government and judiciary positions. For example, the President nominates the federal judges deployed across the country. The personal details must then be confirmed by the Senate. It is also possible that Biden might fill a vacant post on the US Supreme Court.
But even the majority of the Democrats in the Senate is very small: They make up 51 of the 100 senators. Senator Kyrsten Sinema recently caused a stir. Sinema wanted to leave the Democrats and henceforth act as an independent senator. It is still unclear to what extent the voting behavior of the centrist Sinema, which has repeatedly blocked the Democrats’ legislative projects in the past, might change. With Bernie Sanders and Angus King, there are already two independent senators, who, however, usually vote with the Democrats and are therefore attributed to them.
