North Korea carried out its seventh test launch of the year on Sunday (January 30th) for what appeared to be its most powerful missile since 2017. The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said it detected a missile intermediate-range ballistic fire, fired from the northern province of Jagang, towards its east coast and into the ocean.
The missile appears to have fallen in waters outside of Japan’s maritime exclusive economic zone. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida strongly condemned the trial and called a National Security Council meeting. “Pyongyang is close to breaking the moratorium self-imposed, since 2018, on nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile tests, said South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
Modernize the country’s arsenal
Kim Jong-un reaffirmed in December that his priority was to modernize the country’s arsenal. The North Korean regime threatened on January 20 to resume nuclear or missile tests, saying it was politically compelled to do so. « hostile » of the United States towards him. The KCNA news agency published images of the North Korean leader visiting an arms factory on Friday, January 28. In one of these photos, we see him beaming, wearing his usual belted black leather coat, surrounded by uniformed officials, whose faces are blurred.
The relationship between Pyongyang and Washington has deteriorated since the failure of the Hanoi summit in February 2019. At the time, Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump had not reached an agreement on the lifting of economic sanctions.
Since Joe Biden’s inauguration in January 2021, Pyongyang has rejected offers from the Biden administration to hold talks ” anytime anywhere “, without preconditions. The United States imposed new sanctions on North Korea’s weapons program in January in response to tests of hypersonic missiles. The North Korean Foreign Ministry then protested vehemently, saying its weapons program was defensive in nature.
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North Korea “gradually accelerating” its weapons tests, said Soo Kim, an analyst at the Rand Corporation. “Kim restrained his appetite for tests and provocations”, she explains. “Now the time has come, and the repeated missile strikes add another problem to an already hefty list of international challenges for Washington. »
An economy on its knees
This series of North Korean trials comes at a delicate time for the region: China, the only major ally of the North Korean regime, is hosting the Winter Olympics in February and South Korea is holding a presidential election in March. Pyongyang is preparing to celebrate the 80th birthday of Kim’s father, the late Kim Jong Il, in February and then the 110th birthday of his grandfather, Kim Il Sung, the country’s founding leader, in April.
Kim Jong-un must reckon with a North Korean economy brought to its knees by international sanctions and by almost two years of border closures, in the name of the fight once morest Covid-19. “Pyongyang might tell itself that there is a window of opportunity before the Olympics, in particular because everyone is focusing on Ukraine and that the tensions between the United States, China and Russia prevent any coordination”, deciphers Antoine Bondaz, research fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).
