New talks, Washington fears imminent invasion

© KEYSTONE / AP / Andreea Alexandru

Vladimir Putin is due to speak on the phone with his American and French counterparts on Saturday. Washington believes that Russia, despite its multiple denials, might invade Ukraine “at any time”.

And while many Western countries were asking their nationals to leave Ukraine, Russia added to the concern by announcing the reduction of its diplomatic staff there, arguing possible Western “provocations” or on the part of Kiev.

Faced with the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, presented as imminent, the telephone bells must ring louder.

President Joe Biden will meet on Saturday evening in Moscow with Vladimir Putin following a phone call on Friday between their respective chiefs of staff. A call is also planned for Saturday between the Russian president and Emmanuel Macron.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will speak to his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.

“This is a pivotal moment. We are prepared for anything that might happen,” he warned, as the United States and many Western countries called on their nationals to leave Ukraine.

“We continue to see signs of Russian escalation, including the arrival of new forces on the Ukrainian border,” White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned Friday following a virtual meeting of top Western leaders.

According to him, such an offensive is a “very, very real possibility” even before the end of the Beijing Olympics on February 20.

He admits, however, that American intelligence did not know whether the Russian president “made a final decision” or not.

“Keep Calm”

Ukrainian diplomacy, which has continued to judge the United States too alarmist on the subject, said on Saturday that it was “extremely important to keep calm”.

The spokeswoman for Russian diplomacy Maria Zakharova said that “the hysteria of the White House is more revealing than ever. The Anglo-Saxons need a war”.

On the other hand, she indicated on Saturday that Moscow was recalling part of its diplomatic staff, saying on Saturday that it feared “provocations” from the Ukrainian authorities or from “third countries”.

While Emmanuel Macron assured that he had obtained a commitment from Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday not to fuel any further escalation, Russia launched new large-scale naval maneuvers in the Black Sea on Saturday.

“More than 30 ships of the Black Sea Fleet sailed from Sevastopol and Novorossiysk”, the purpose of the exercise being “to defend the sea coast of the Crimean Peninsula”, annexed by Russia in 2014, d possible threats, announced the Russian Defense Ministry.

Russia is also conducting large-scale military exercises in Belarus, near the EU and Ukraine.

For Westerners, all these maneuvers are particularly worrying because they amount to a military encirclement of Ukrainian territory.

“Aerial bombings”

Several rounds of talks in recent days have failed to defuse the crisis, born of the deployment in recent months on the borders of Ukraine of more than 100,000 Russian soldiers with heavy weapons.

The White House reaffirmed that Westerners were “ready for all scenarios”: unprecedented economic reprisals in the event of war but also an outstretched diplomatic hand to continue negotiations with Moscow. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is also expected in Kiev on Monday and Moscow on Tuesday.

In the meantime, the Pentagon will send 3,000 additional American soldiers to Poland.

For the White House, which praised the “remarkable” unity of the West, this is the most dangerous moment for Europe since the end of the Cold War.

The Americans, who shared the analyzes of their intelligence services with their allies, sketched out a dramatic scenario in the event of a Russian offensive.

This would “probably begin with aerial bombardments and missile strikes,” said White House adviser Jake Sullivan. It might also include “a rapid assault” on the capital Kiev.

Friday, the Kremlin noted that discussions bringing together the day before in Berlin representatives of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France had produced “no result”.

These discussions focus on the conflict in eastern Ukraine which has pitted Russian-backed separatists once morest the Ukrainian army since 2014, and has left more than 14,000 dead.

Moscow, which has already annexed Crimea in 2014, denies any aggressive intentions towards Ukraine, but conditions any de-escalation on a series of requirements, in particular the assurance that Kiev will never integrate NATO. Unacceptable, say Westerners.