New party alliance in the north?
All data on the state elections in Schleswig-Holstein
5/5/2022 12:56 p.m
Will Jamaica remain in Schleswig-Holstein? A black-green-yellow coalition has governed Kiel since 2017. According to surveys, however, a single alliance partner might be enough for the CDU in the future. An overview of the data and infographics for the state elections on May 8th.
Setting the political course in northern Germany: A new state parliament will be elected in Schleswig-Holstein on May 8th. The most recent polls see the CDU in the federal state clearly ahead. The incumbent prime minister, Daniel Günther, has good prospects of remaining in government for another five years.
In Schleswig-Holstein, the CDU currently governs with the Greens and the FDP. This tripartite alliance will probably soon be history. The lead of the CDU continued to increase in the last surveys before the election. If the pollsters are right, CDU top candidate Günther might in future do without the black-green-yellow “Jamaica coalition” and instead only continue to govern with another coalition partner.
According to the current mood, the CDU might form a two-party alliance with the Greens, the FDP would no longer be needed for the majority. On this basis, a black-red coalition with the SPD would also be conceivable, and theoretically a black-yellow-blue tripartite alliance of the CDU with the FDP and SSW.
The CDU top candidate, who recently recovered from a corona infection, makes his challengers in Schleswig-Holstein look comparatively pale. His pandemic management, the office bonus and the personal approval ratings have recently given Günther a strong tailwind: A few days before the election date, pollsters are predicting a result of up to 38 percent for his party. That would be six percentage points more than in the last state election in 2017.
In the polls, the CDU is well ahead of the Social Democrats, who can expect around 19 percent next Sunday. Five years ago, the SPD had achieved 27.3 percent. The third strongest force in the surveys in Schleswig-Holstein are the Greens with 16 percent (2017: 12.9 percent).
The FDP, on the other hand, is in danger of losing ground in the north: in the state elections five years ago, the Liberals got 11.5 percent of the votes cast. This time it might be close with the double-digit result. Depending on the polls, the FDP recently only reached seven to nine percent.
The AfD only plays a subordinate role in the Kiel state parliament. With poll numbers of six to seven percent, entry into the state parliament seems reasonably certain. The votes of the Danish minority in Schleswig-Holstein, on the other hand, are of great regional importance: the South Schleswig Voters’ Association (SSW), which is exempt from the five percent rule, has a certain political weight in northern Germany. According to the survey, the SSW might achieve a result of around five percent.
So far, the left has not been in a good position in Schleswig-Holstein. In the polls, it did not get more than three percent. This means that the left would once more not be represented in the state parliament.
The results of the elections in Kiel do not imply any major federal political weight: the high approval ratings for the CDU are primarily due to the popularity of the incumbent prime minister. According to an Insa survey, 49 percent would vote for Günther in a direct election and only 13 percent for his SPD challenger Thomas Losse-Müller.
“Prime Minister Daniel Günther is making the state elections a personal choice,” commented Insa boss Hermann Binkert on the political situation in the north. “He is the guarantee of success for the CDU. Jamaica in Schleswig-Holstein is coming to an end.”
The state parliament of Schleswig-Holstein is re-elected every five years. The Schleswig-Holstein parliament in the state capital Kiel normally has at least 69 seats. A total of 16 parties are contesting the election this time.
Polling stations will open at 8am on Sunday, May 8th. As usual, voting ends at 6 p.m. sharp. Every eligible voter in the federal state, which has around 2.9 million inhabitants, has two votes: the first vote is used to elect a constituency candidate, the second vote counts for the state list of a party or political association.
Constituency candidates who have won the relative majority of the first votes in their constituency move directly into the Landtag. Additional seats will be allocated to parties that have won at least five percent of the valid second votes according to their number of second votes obtained nationwide. This distribution follows the Sainte-Laguë mathematical method. Election proposals from the South Schleswig Voters’ Association (SSW), which represents the Danish minority, are exempt from the five percent hurdle.
