2023-07-05 15:59:21
Only a few more days to wait before knowing the new Livret A rate. If the calculation formula places it at 4.10% on August 1, it will probably only reach 3.5%. A probable scenario justified by the defense of the interests of life insurance. Explanations.
On July 13, the Banque de France is expected to announce its recommendation regarding the increase in the rate of the livret A on August 1st. Good news for savers who are impatiently waiting to know if their payment booklet will see its remuneration increase from 3% today to 4.10%.
In any case, this is what emerges from the regulatory calculation formula, which notably takes into account the evolution of inflation. But in reality, it is unlikely that the rate of the Livret A will be raised in such a proportion.
The hierarchy of upset rates
Several elements can explain this and in particular the gap that this would generate with life insurance, medium and long term savings. The hierarchy of rates is one of the factors. A 4% rate would represent twice the 2022 yield of funds in euros. The difference between a medium and long-term investment and a short-term investment would be very significant. The official communication of France insurers is that the booklet A does not compete with life insurance, explains the economist Philippe Crevel.
Yet the collection of funds in euros, these supports of life insurance whose capital is guaranteed continues. It reached 1.6 billion euros in May. Individuals who withdraw their money from their contract thus prefer to place it at least from the Livret A. Life insurance is a victim of the enthusiasm of households for precautionary savings, explains Philippe Crevel.
Lobbying to prevent the passbook A rate from reaching 4%
We can say that there is lobbying by insurers to prevent the passbook A rate from reaching 4%. The rise in interest rates for funds in euros will continue in 2023 to reach an average yield of between 2.5% and 2.8%. By limiting the rise in the passbook rate to 3.5%, the gap would not be filled, but it will be partially reduced, continues Philippe Crevel.
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As a result, it is increasingly likely that the Banque de France will recommend to the Minister of the Economy not to apply the formula for calculating the Livret A rate and to cut the pear in half with a rate around 3.5% .
Among the other arguments that could encourage the authorities to take this decision, there is the slowdown in inflation. According to preliminary estimates from INSEE, inflation reached 4.5% in June, against 5.1% the previous month. And if this trend continues, it could lead as of February 1, 2024 reduction in the rate of the booklet A. It is more difficult to lower a rate than to increase it for public opinion, specifies the economist. In other words, it is better to avoid increasing the rate of the Booklet too much on August 1st and then lowering it six months later. Verdict next week.
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