New Hampshire Primary: Impact on 2024 Presidential Election – Analysis and Predictions

2024-01-23 03:14:01

◀ Anchor ▶

The first primary election in New Hampshire, considered a weathervane for the U.S. presidential election, is just one day away.

For the Republican Party, former President Trump’s ‘consolidation of the mainstream’ is at stake, and for the Democratic Party, amid the limitations of an ‘unofficial primary’, President Biden’s vote percentage is attracting attention.

Correspondent Wang Zongmyeong reports from Washington.

◀ Report ▶

If last week’s Iowa caucuses and caucuses were only for Republicans, tomorrow’s New Hampshire primary will be open to all voters regardless of party affiliation.

As this is the first primary election of this presidential election, it is evaluated as a ‘weathervane’ that will gauge the direction of voter sentiment.

First, looking at the Republican Party, which has become a confrontation between the two due to Florida Governor DeSantis’ withdrawal from the candidacy, former President Trump is ahead of former Ambassador Haley by a gap of more than 10 percentage points in various opinion polls.

If Trump wins overwhelmingly, the general theory will be solidified early on.

Pressure on Haley to resign as a candidate may intensify.

[도널드 트럼프/전 미국 대통령]

“Get your neighbors together, get your families together and get everyone out to vote. Because we have to win by a big margin. We have to let them know that this is the flow.″

However, we cannot rule out the possibility that former Ambassador Haley will cause an upset.

If we can attract the votes of independent voters in New Hampshire and bring regarding a close race, we can lay the foundation for a turnaround in the future primaries.

[니키 헤일리/전 유엔대사]

″70% of Americans say they do not want a Trump-Biden rematch. The majority of Americans oppose Trump and Biden.″

On the other hand, the Democratic Party holds an unofficial primary that is not recognized by the party, so President Biden has not even registered as a candidate.

However, since voters can write the name of the candidate they support directly on the ballot, it remains to be seen how many names of unregistered candidate Biden will appear.

Although Biden is trying to ignore it to the point of not campaigning in New Hampshire, there is analysis that if the vote rate is low, not only will he be embarrassed, but it may also affect the subsequent primary.

This is Wang Jong-myeong from MBC News in Washington.

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