Chinese, cut off from the rest of the world for three years due to COVID-19 restrictions, flocked to travel agency websites on Tuesday, ahead of the country’s borders reopening, even as a surge in infections overwhelmed the health system and disrupted the economy.
The “zero-Covid” measures have hurt the Chinese economy since early 2020, leading last month to the biggest public discontent on the mainland since President Xi Jinping came to power in 2012.
A reversal of those measures this month means the virus will once more begin to spread unchecked across China’s 1.4 billion people.
Official statistics.. and doubts
However, official statistics showed that only one death from the Corona virus was recorded in the past seven days until yesterday, Monday, which raised doubts among health experts and residents regarding government data. These numbers are not in line with what was recorded in less populous countries following reopening.
Doctors say hospitals are overwhelmed with five to six times the usual number of patients, most of them elderly.
Estimates by international health experts indicate that millions of infections are recorded daily, with at least one million deaths due to Covid expected in China next year.
However, the authorities are determined to cancel the last remnants of their policies aimed at preventing the spread of the Corona virus.
In a major step towards easing border restrictions, which was welcomed by Asian stock markets today, Tuesday, the National Health Commission said late on Monday that China will stop obliging arrivals to quarantine as of January 8.
“Finally we feel as if China has passed the crisis,” said Colm Rafferty, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, of the imminent lifting of quarantine restrictions.
And data from the travel platform (Ctrip) showed that searches for popular cross-border travel destinations had multiplied ten-fold within just half an hour of news of the lifting of quarantine restrictions.
The platform said the most popular destinations are Macau, Hong Kong, Japan, Thailand and South Korea.
Data from another platform, Kynar, showed that within fifteen minutes of the news spreading, searches for international flights jumped seven-fold as usual, with Thailand, Japan and South Korea topping the list.
The health commission said China’s COVID control measures will be downgraded from the current category A to the less stringent category B from January 8 following the virus became less virulent.
This means that the authorities will no longer have to isolate patients and their contacts and close areas.
But despite the great enthusiasm for a gradual return to the pre-Covid way of life, there is increasing pressure on China’s healthcare system as doctors say hospitals are overwhelmed with patients and funeral home workers say demand for their services has skyrocketed.
State media reported that nurses and doctors were asked to work, even if they were sick, and retired health workers in rural areas were rehired to help. Some cities are facing difficulties in providing anti-fever medicines.
suffering in the short term
While expectations indicate that the second largest economy in the world will witness a significant recovery later next year once the first wave of infection recedes, the Chinese economy is expected to face difficulties during the coming weeks and months as patients increase among workers.
Many stores in Shanghai, Beijing and elsewhere have been forced to close in recent days with employees unable to come to work, while some factories have given many of their workers holiday for the Lunar New Year, although it falls in late January.
Analysts from the US investment bank, JP Morgan, said in a note, “Concern remains regarding a temporary disruption in the supply chain as the workforce is affected by infection,” adding that their tracking of movement in the subway in 29 Chinese cities showed that many reduced their movements with the spread of the virus. virus.
Tuesday’s data showed industrial profits fell 3.6 percent in the January-November period compared to a year earlier, compared to a 3 percent decline in the January-October period of the current year, reflecting the impact of lifting anti-virus restrictions that began last month. This includes the main manufacturing areas.
Lifting travel restrictions will give a boost to the nearly $17 trillion Chinese economy, but there are strong caveats to keep in mind.
“The rate of international travel … is likely to see a boom, but it may take several more months before it returns to the pre-pandemic level,” said Dan Wang, chief economist at China’s Hang Seng Bank.
And he added: “Covid is still spreading in most parts of China, which greatly disrupts the normal work schedule. There is a huge loss in productivity, and inflationary pressures in the coming months are likely to be severe due to the sudden rise in demand that will outpace the pace of supply recovery.”
