Infectious diseases such as colds and flu have become endemic to humans, and people get infected from time to time, but for most people, it’s not a big problem, and the discomfort goes away after a few days. As for the new coronavirus (COVID-19) that has caused a global pandemic for more than two years, will it become another endemic disease? Using animal models, Yale University in the United States estimates that this will happen in about two years.
non-sterile immunization
Caroline Zeiss, a professor of medicine who participated in the research, said that one of the key factors in the spread of the new coronavirus is non-sterilizing immunity. Through infection and vaccination, the masses begin to accumulate broad immunity, which promotes the virus to stabilize. The situation is also happening with the new coronavirus, so it is not expected that the virus will disappear soon.
Calculated using mathematical models
To better understand when the new coronavirus became an endemic disease, Yale University scholars collected data on reinfection in mice that are as susceptible to the new coronavirus as humans, and then used mathematical models to simulate the trajectory of the virus’s spread. Calculations show that the median duration of the pandemic in the United States is about 1,400 days, or about 4 years, so it may become an endemic disease after two years, but it may also take longer to evolve. The research was published in PNAS Nexus.
Originally published on AM730 https://www.am730.com.hk/Health/New Coronary Pneumonia-Coronavirus Infection Like Influenza-Aesthetic Scholar-Turns To Endemic Diseases After 2 Years/328341