“Is Israel close to achieving its objective of eradicating Hamas? Or is the organization in the process of rebuilding?” These questions surfaced following the Israeli army’s announcement regarding the movement’s casualties during the ten-month war in the Gaza Strip, amidst ongoing combat in various regions of the Strip.
How was Hamas “affected”?
Hamas does not disclose the number of its fighters, but estimates suggest there were approximately 30,000 to 40,000 members at the onset of the war on October 7.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates that the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s military wing, comprised between 15,000 to 20,000 fighters, whereas the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies cites the figure as 15,000.
Israeli military and strategic expert Colonel Moshe Elad asserts that Israel has successfully dismantled 22 out of 25 Hamas battalions located in the Gaza Strip.
In an interview with Alhurra, he noted that the Israeli army has managed to eliminate 17,000 members of Hamas and other fighting factions in Gaza.
In a related statement, Israeli military and strategic expert Kofi Lavi discussed the Israeli forces’ success in “dismantling the Hamas battalions” in the Gaza Strip.
“The infrastructure and organizational capabilities of the Hamas Brigades have disintegrated,” he remarked, adding that “individual activists” are striving to “restructure the movement” and are launching rockets at Israel from certain areas within the Gaza Strip.
Israeli political analyst Eddie Cohen emphasized that while Israeli forces have effectively “dismantled Hamas” and eliminated many “senior leaders,” they have “not yet entirely eradicated the movement.”
“Ninety percent of Hamas’s military capabilities have been paralyzed,” he stated, explaining that some remaining elements of the movement still periodically fire at Israel, as per estimates provided to Alhurra.
Conversely, Palestinian military and strategic expert Major General Wassef Erekat contends that Hamas and other Palestinian factions “continue to exist, fight, and conduct significant operations and strikes against the Israeli army.”
Speaking to Alhurra, he highlighted that the Israeli army “has not achieved its declared objectives, which were to eliminate Hamas or rescue hostages through military force.”
Additionally, Palestinian political analyst and head of the European Council for International Relations and Consultations in Paris, Adel Al-Ghoul, emphasizes that “even if 17,000 Hamas members were confirmed killed, this does not imply the movement is militarily finished.”
The number of members in the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades exceeds 40,000, meaning that over half of Hamas’s military wing remains, particularly “underground in the tunnels,” as he explained to the Al-Hurra website.
Palestinian political analyst Ayman Al-Raqab estimates that there were between 50,000 to 70,000 Hamas and Palestinian faction militants in the Gaza Strip during the early days of the war.
Between 20 and 30 percent of these members were killed during the ten-month conflict, and daily recruitment occurs as many young men have lost family and relatives, fostering “intense hatred” towards the Israeli army, according to his comments to the “Al-Hurra” website.
On Thursday, the Israeli army reported that it had “eliminated more than 17,000 terrorists” since the escalation of the conflict with Hamas and other Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip over ten months ago.
Alhurra reached out to army spokesman Avichay Adraee, his deputy officer Ella Wawia, and the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit for clarification regarding the number of Hamas battalions that were “eliminated,” but no response was received before the report’s publication.
“Painful” strikes and decline in “military capabilities”
The CIA World Factbook revealed that Hamas “acquires its weapons through smuggling or local production and receives some military support from Iran.”
Throughout the conflict in Gaza, Hamas’s arsenal of rockets and missiles, previously estimated at between 15,000 and 30,000, has been depleted.
The Israeli military estimates that at least 13,000 rockets have been fired, while they have captured shell caches during their operations in Gaza.
Al-Ghoul affirms that “Hamas has endured painful blows and has lost many military leaders, with several battalions dismantled.”
However, he argues that Hamas “has not been defeated militarily, and Israel has not managed to eliminate it,” as the movement has altered its “tactics,” opting for “individual groups and guerrilla warfare” with a “hit-and-run” strategy, according to the Palestinian political analyst.
Al-Raqab concurs, stating that Gaza has been under siege, with “no bullets or weapons entering it for months,” and as a result, “the combat capabilities of Hamas and other factions have significantly diminished due to a lack of resources.”
Hamas and the Palestinian factions “are attempting to recycle the weapons that the Israeli army leaves behind when it enters and exits an area, such as ammunition dropped by soldiers, as well as missiles that fail to detonate,” according to the Palestinian political analyst.
Is Israel close to “eliminating Hamas”?
In the Gaza Strip, the fighting has become more dispersed and less coordinated as Hamas has shifted towards guerrilla warfare conducted by small groups of fighters.
A previous study conducted by the network revealed thatCNNAl-Ikhbariya reported that the military wing of Hamas consists of 24 battalions, and the Israeli army has managed to destroy some of these battalions.
The study, which involved the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), identified eight Hamas battalions that “remain combat-effective against the Israeli army and are capable of defending territory with advanced methods and weaponry.”
While there are 13 battalions whose combat capabilities have diminished, allowing them to execute smaller, less effective guerrilla-style attacks, according to the study.
Thus, Al-Ghoul asserts that “Hamas has not been militarily defeated,” but is “reorganizing its battalions” in northern Gaza, Khan Yunis, and other locations.
Al-Raqab states that Hamas has prepared its forces for combat “in various stages,” indicating that those currently engaged in fighting “are not the elite,” and there is “a gradual attrition of fighters,” with a significant number of casualties among the second or third ranks of the movement.
Hamas understands that the conflict may extend indefinitely, thus “it will not exert all its strength against the Israeli army,” while concurrently “reorganizing its strategies and building its capacity,” despite being “worn down” by the loss of numerous fighters and military resources, according to the Palestinian political analyst.
Al-Raqab points out that the Israeli army realizes that remaining in Gaza is “exhausting” and that Hamas has “prepared” for a prolonged conflict, equipping itself to “continue operations against Israeli forces.”
However, Lavi notes the existence of “some individual elements of the Hamas movement in multiple areas of the Gaza Strip.”
The remaining Hamas elements must be tracked down and “eliminated,” considering the “efforts to reorganize the movement’s battalions,” states the former Israeli army officer.
Consequently, the Israeli military operation “persists” in the Gaza Strip until the military mission concludes and “any means by which Hamas could threaten Israel” are eradicated, according to the former Israeli army officer.
Elad emphasizes that “it is feasible to eradicate Hamas as a terrorist organization,” while “the ideology and the concept cannot be extinguished.” As he puts it, “You can eliminate members of the organization, but it is challenging to extinguish faith and belief.”
He notes that “Hamas has received a significant blow as an organization, but if Israel intends to achieve complete victory, it must engage in an international agreement concerning the future of Gaza.”
Hamas will not face a decisive defeat unless another entity assumes control of the Strip, provided that it “does not embrace the movement’s ideology,” suggests the Israeli military and strategic expert.
Is Israel Close to Achieving Its Goal of Eliminating Hamas? Or Is the Movement Rebuilding Itself?
The Israeli military has reported substantial accomplishments in its ongoing conflict with Hamas, particularly regarding the organization’s military capabilities. Amidst these announcements, two critical questions arise: Is Israel close to achieving its goal of eliminating Hamas? Or is the movement in the process of rebuilding itself? This article dives into the recent developments, military statistics, expert opinions, and the resilience of Hamas as it faces the Israeli forces in Gaza.
The State of Hamas: Military Losses and Organizational Resilience
When analyzing the current state of Hamas, it’s essential to understand the extent of the losses it has incurred. Although Hamas does not disclose specific figures regarding its operatives, estimates suggest that the group’s forces ranged from 30,000 to 40,000 at the onset of the conflict on October 7.
Impact of the Conflict on Hamas
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Hamas’s military arm, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, consisted of approximately 15,000 to 20,000 fighters. Israeli assessments corroborate these figures; Colonel Moshe Elad from Israel’s military indicates that 22 out of 25 existing Hamas battalions have been neutralized.
As of March, Israeli military sources claim that more than 17,000 militants from Hamas and allied factions have been killed. However, this figure does not equate to the complete dissolution of the movement. Experts highlight that while the foundational structure of Hamas has been significantly damaged, the organization is not eradicated.
Expert Insights on the Continuing Presence of Hamas
Multiple analysts have weighed in on the ongoing dynamics of Hamas post-conflict. Dr. Eddie Cohen, an Israeli political analyst, states that while 90% of Hamas’s military capability has been rendered ineffective, there remain “some residual elements” that pose threats, occasionally launching rockets into Israel.
Conversely, Major General Wassef Erekat believes that despite suffering heavy losses, Hamas continues to maintain a viable military presence, executing operational strikes against Israeli troops.
Persistence Amid Losses
Adel Al-Ghoul, a Palestinian political analyst, emphasizes that even with significant casualties, Hamas retains a fighting force that outnumbers Israeli estimates of their effectiveness. The Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, which are believed to have over 40,000 members, may still operate underground, utilizing extensive tunnel networks.
Recruitment Challenges and Public Sentiment
According to political analyst Ayman Al-Raqab, the militants currently in Gaza could number between 50,000 and 70,000. During the initial phases of the conflict, an estimated 20-30% of these forces were lost. Notably, the emotional toll of the conflict has galvanized recruitment efforts, as young men driven by vengeance and loss join the ranks, which further complicates Israel’s operational goals.
Hamas’s Tactical Shift in Warfare
The warfare observed in Gaza has evolved significantly, transitioning from organized battalion-based confrontations to decentralized guerrilla-style tactics. As a result, the combat landscape has become more fragmented and challenging for Israeli forces to navigate.
The New Nature of Conflict
The CIA World Factbook reveals that Hamas has historically sourced its weaponry through smuggling and local manufacturing. This has allowed them to maintain an arsenal estimated between 15,000 to 30,000 at warfare’s beginning. Throughout the conflict, the Israeli military has reported interception of numerous rockets and munitions, with an actual tally of approximately 13,000 rockets fired during the war.
Despite these losses, experts like Al-Ghoul assert that while Hamas has faced serious ramifications, it remains operationally active, changing its strategies to adapt to the increasing pressure exerted by Israeli forces.
Assessing Israel’s Goals and Future Implications
As the military campaign continues, the critical question remains: is Israel closer to achieving its goal of total elimination of Hamas? The Israeli army’s ongoing operations suggest that they perceive Hamas as an imminent danger needing to be adequately contained.
Operational Challenges for Israel
Several analysts argue that Israel’s efforts may not translate to complete eradication. Former Israeli colonel Moshe Elad warns that while Israel may succeed in eliminating Hamas as an organized military force, “the ideology and belief systems” associated with Hamas will persist.
Moreover, Major General Erekat highlights the continued presence of fighters prepared to engage Israeli forces despite significant losses. Their resilience has made military operations painstaking, with Hamas effectively reorganizing its battalions in areas like Gaza City and Khan Yunis.
Looking Ahead: What Lies Beyond Military Operations
For Israel, long-term success may not solely hinge on military actions but also necessitate geopolitical strategies and diplomatic engagements aimed at stabilizing the region. The ultimate fate of Hamas may depend on whether alternative leadership emerges, distancing itself from the ideological foundations driving the group.
Maintaining Regional Stability
In the profound complexity of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, eliminating an organization like Hamas presents numerous challenges. While military strategies can reshape power dynamics, enduring solutions will require significant diplomatic efforts and a nuanced understanding of the local socio-political realities.
Key Takeaways on the Current State of Hamas
- Hamas has endured significant military losses, with estimates of around 17,000 members killed; however, the organization remains operational.
- The military capabilities of Hamas have been heavily impaired, yet guerrilla tactics allow them to continue conducting operations.
- Recruitment and public sentiment are fueling a renewed influx of fighters within their ranks, complicating Israeli efforts to dismantle the group entirely.
- Long-term peace in the region may require more than military success; addressing underlying grievances is critical.
