A week before the end of the grain deal, the interested parties either explicitly stated that it needed to be extended, or (like Russia, for example) made it clear that an extension was possible. Substantive negotiations will be held on Monday in Geneva, with Ukraine offering to get away from the temporary restrictions on the work of the Black Sea grain corridor.
On the eve of the next expiration of the Black Sea grain initiative (or grain deal), all parties involved in it became more active. UN Secretary General António Guterres visited Ukraine, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelensky and head of the office of the Ukrainian leader Andriy Yermak.
Both Mr. Zelensky and the UN Secretary General spoke in favor of the functioning of the grain initiative following March 18. It is then that the next 120 days expire, for which the agreement, signed in July 2022 by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN, was extended on November 18 last year.
“The continuation of the Black Sea grain initiative following March 18 is critically necessary for the whole world,” Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a meeting with António Guterres. The UN Secretary General, in turn, said that it was “extremely important” to extend the deal.
Andriy Yermak later added: Kyiv is in favor of not limiting the duration of the agreement. “The position of Ukraine is unchanged. And this is one of the points of the peace formula presented by President Volodymyr Zelensky. We are in favor of extending the grain initiative for an indefinite period. Ukraine, for its part, is fulfilling everything that we have agreed with the UN and Turkey,” he stressed.
Turkish National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said that Ankara is in dialogue with all parties on the topic of prolonging the deal. “Kyiv announced that it approves the re-extension of the initiative. Moscow also adheres to a positive agenda on this issue. We, in turn, hope and expect an extension of the agreement, taking into account the contribution of all parties. We continue to work in this direction,” the Anadolu agency quoted Mr. Akar as saying.
Russia, meanwhile, is commenting with the utmost restraint on the prospects for extending the deal.
In February, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin said in an interview with RTVi that prolonging the grain initiative without tangible results is inappropriate. Moscow, we note, has long criticized the agreement. Firstly, for the fact that grain is exported not to poor, but to well-to-do countries. And secondly, due to the fact that the second part of the deal, related to the export of agricultural products and fertilizers from Russia, is not working.
Russia’s Union of Grain Exporters said it had adjusted to dealing with trade barriers, though there was still a problem with payments – “serious pressure” on buyers of Russian grain from some banks, which are closing credit lines for the purchase of Russian grain. Also, the charter of ships for Russian exporters is more expensive than for other countries, they said in the union. They emphasized that they are not afraid of competition and consistently stand for equal opportunities for all participants in the world grain market.
Commenting on the topic of the grain deal and the upcoming negotiations in Geneva on March 9, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova once more reminded that the Black Sea initiative concerns not only the export of grain from Ukraine. “This is a negotiation process involving the participation of delegations. We have repeatedly stated that this is a package deal. We didn’t come up with it ourselves. This format of the deal was proposed by UN Secretary General António Guterres. A package deal in this case involves two tracks. Both must be fulfilled,” Ms. Zakharova emphasized.
She noted that if things go towards fulfilling both tracks of the deal, then the forecast is optimistic.
“If it will endlessly fall into a “peak” in terms of non-fulfillment of the second part of the deal, then the forecast for the implementation is pessimistic,” Maria Zakharova concluded.
On Friday, the RIA Novosti agency, citing a source close to the negotiations, reported that there is “cautious optimism” in the negotiations to extend the deal. Kommersant’s interlocutor, informed of the progress of the negotiations, is confident that the deal will be extended. However, more definite information regarding the prospects for the further work of the grain corridor, obviously, will appear on March 13.
In total, during the operation of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, 23.8 million metric tons of grain were exported from Ukraine – corn, wheat, rapeseed, sunflower and sunflower oil. In March alone, 35 ships passed through the corridor.
The US Department of Agriculture in the latest report estimated the total world grain reserves at 762.9 million tons, including 267.2 million tons of wheat, and the total world supply at more than 3.5 billion tons and 1 billion tons, respectively.