The Rookie of the Year award remains one of the most closely watched and eagerly awaited accolades each NBA season. While exceptional talents such as Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren have previously set the standard in certain years, the current season presents a more competitive landscape with no clear leader emerging among the rookies.
To identify which players are in the running for this coveted award, it’s essential to analyze significant trends from the past two decades.
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A striking fact reveals that only eight No. 1 overall picks have clinched the Rookie of the Year title, with recent honorees including Wembanyama (2023-24) and Paolo Banchero (2022-23). In a surprising twist, only one winner in history has been drafted outside the lottery.
An impressive 16 of the last 20 winners hailed from the top five draft picks, with guards emerging as the predominant winners (12 victories), followed by forwards (five) and centers (three).
Historically, the Rookie of the Year winners tend not to be from playoff-bound teams, as only four have managed to make the postseason in the same year they won the award.
Top contenders
Jared McCain, SG, Philadelphia 76ers (+300)
Jared McCain has already proven that he doesn’t lack confidence. David Dowt/NBAE via Getty Images
Selected as the No. 17 overall pick by the 76ers, McCain has risen to the occasion, playing with a chip on his shoulder. Amidst a struggling 76ers roster, he has become a notable contender for the Rookie of the Year title. Early in the season, his odds stood at 40-1, but he has recently scored 84 points in just three games, making history as the first 76ers rookie since Allen Iverson in 1997 to surpass 80 points in three consecutive games.
What’s working in his favor: McCain is establishing a substantial role within the 76ers’ rotation, brilliantly showcasing his abilities with a striking 34-point, 10-assist, six 3-pointer game against Cleveland. His performance highlights his potential, especially given the trend favoring guards in the Rookie of the Year race.
What’s working against him: McCain faces potential challenges in maintaining his current level of opportunity. The presence of stars such as Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey on the court means his playing time and shot attempts could diminish significantly.
Zaccharie Risacher, SF/PF, Atlanta Hawks (+450)
Risacher has been a standout for the Hawks, bringing much-needed energy on both ends of the court. Drafted No. 1 overall, he’s showcasing why Atlanta chose him over other options. He has averaged 16 points and 5.2 rebounds in 26.8 minutes per game, second only to McCain in rookie scoring, over his last five games
What’s working in his favor: Risacher’s role has expanded as the Hawks contend with injuries, necessitating a new playmaker to support Trae Young, especially after Dejounte Murray’s departure. His draft position gives him an edge in the Rookie of the Year competition.
What’s working against him: Consistency remains a concern for the 19-year-old. Following a career-performance where he scored 33 points against the Knicks, his scoring has diminished significantly to just 32 total points over the next three games. Moreover, his inefficient shooting further compounds the challenges common to young players in the league.
Zach Edey, C, Memphis Grizzlies (+500)
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Standing at 7-foot-4 and weighing 305 pounds, Edey possesses an extraordinary physical presence on the basketball court. The No. 9 overall pick and two-time National Player of the Year at Purdue has made a strong impression early in his NBA journey, boasting averages of 11.3 points and 7.0 rebounds per game while maintaining an outstanding shooting percentage of 62.2% from the field.
What’s working for him: Edey has quickly assumed a pivotal role on a formidable NBA team, starting nine of his first 12 games. His impressive size creates significant mismatches for defenders in the paint, culminating in an impressive shooting efficiency.
What’s working against him: Historically, most Rookie of the Year winners over the past two decades have averaged at least 29 minutes per game. Currently averaging only 20.3 minutes per game, Edey’s ability to accumulate consistent statistics and maintain momentum might be handicapped by his limited playing time.
Bub Carrington, PG, Washington Wizards (+575)
The 19-year-old rookie, who was selected from the University of Pittsburgh as the No. 14 overall pick, has emerged as a surprising talent in the early parts of the season. His 6-foot-4 frame and multipurpose skill set as a scorer, distributor, and rebounder have swiftly earned him the trust of Wizards coach Brian Keefe.
What’s working for him: Carrington’s impressive tenure has included starting nine of the first ten games in which he played, averaging a remarkable 30.0 MPG. His performance reflects the coaching staff’s confidence in his abilities, allowing him to learn on the court in a starting role for a team in rebuilding mode.
What’s working against him: Carrington must work diligently to increase his visibility in the league, facing competition from players who have been drafted higher and have already made notable impacts, such as McCain, Risacher, Edey, and teammate Alexandre Sarr.
Long shots to consider
Alexandre Sarr, PF/C, Washington Wizards (+1200)
Alexandre Sarr has started every game in his NBA career so far. Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
The Wizards are firmly in rebuilding mode, providing Sarr with ample playing time alongside a lineup that features limited playmakers outside of established talents like Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma. As a defensive specialist with a strong rebounding presence, Sarr boasts averages of 9.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game. Improving his scoring ability could enhance his prospects in the Rookie of the Year race.
What’s working in his favor: Sarr is securing significant playing time, having averaged 25.3 MPG over his first 10 NBA games, all starting appearances. His playing time is likely to increase further on this young Wizards team, which has experienced a rocky 2-8 start and is still a year or two away from transitioning into a competitive mode.
What’s working against him: Despite Sarr’s solid contributions defensively, his offensive game is currently a liability, as evidenced by his shooting percentage of just 34.3%. His shooting woes were evident during the Las Vegas Summer League, leading to a decline in his Rookie of the Year odds during the offseason.
Donovan Clingan, C, Portland Trail Blazers (+2500)
Clingan delivered a standout performance Wednesday night, filling in for the injured Deandre Ayton against the Timberwolves. He recorded his first career double-double with 17 points and 12 rebounds, but that was not all. Clingan also swatted eight shots, tied for the second-most blocks by a Trail Blazers rookie.
What’s working in his favor: The standout game against Minnesota could bolster Clingan’s chances of earning more playing time moving forward. In a scoring-heavy league, Clingan’s display of relentless hustle and defensive fortitude in the paint stands out remarkably.
What’s working against him: In order to significantly elevate his standing in the Rookie of the Year race, Clingan will require increased playing time and consistent output, a challenge he may face as long as star players like Ayton and Robert Williams III remain in the lineup.
Others to watch: Stephon Castle, PG, San Antonio Spurs (+1700); Dalton Knecht, SG, Los Angeles Lakers (+1800); Jaylen Wells, SF, Memphis Grizzlies (+1800)
How does the historical trend of lottery picks influence the Rookie of the Year race?
**Interview with Eric Moody, Sports Betting and Fantasy Content Creator for ESPN**
**Interviewer:** Eric, thank you for joining us today! With the NBA Rookie of the Year race heating up, can you give us your assessment of the current contenders?
**Eric Moody:** Absolutely, happy to be here! Right now, it seems like a wide-open competition with significant performances from multiple rookies. Jared McCain of the 76ers, for example, has been on fire lately. His scoring has skyrocketed, and he’s showing his ability to take on a major role, which is crucial since the trend is leaning towards guards historically winning this title.
**Interviewer:** That’s an interesting point! What about other notable players, like Zach Edey and Bub Carrington? How do their chances stack up?
**Eric Moody:** Well, Zach Edey is an imposing figure with his size, and he’s been effective in a starting role. However, his limited minutes could be a barrier to his consistency and overall stats, which voters tend to look for. Bub Carrington is surprising many as a young talent. His high minutes show that the coaching staff trusts him, but he could struggle against some of the higher-profile rookies due to their immediate impact.
**Interviewer:** You mentioned trends in previous Rookie of the Year selections. What’s the significance of being drafted in the top five, or even the lottery?
**Eric Moody:** Historically, being picked in the top five or lottery significantly improves a player’s chances of winning. Out of the last 20 winners, 16 were top picks. It indicates that teams often place their highest hopes on these players, giving them the opportunity to shine even in losing situations, which is often the case with rookie teams.
**Interviewer:** With the current competitive landscape, is it safe to say this year might produce a surprise winner, or is it too early to tell?
**Eric Moody:** It’s definitely a possibility. The absence of a clear frontrunner makes the situation ripe for a surprise, especially from players like Zachary Risacher, who have shown talent but also inconsistency. It’s going to come down to who can sustain their level of play through the season.
**Interviewer:** Great insights, Eric! As we wrap up, what advice would you give to fantasy players looking to choose rookies this season?
**Eric Moody:** Do your homework on their roles in their respective teams. Look not just at the talent but also at minutes played and matchup potential. Players that get consistent playtime and have a chip on their shoulder often outperform expectations, which is critical in fantasy settings.
**Interviewer:** Fantastic tips, Eric! Thank you for sharing your expertise today, and we look forward to seeing how this Rookie of the Year race unfolds!
**Eric Moody:** Thank you for having me! It’s going to be an exciting season!