2023-05-16 09:49:00
Established in 1985 by the NBA, the draft lottery which will take place on the night of Tuesday May 16 to Wednesday, determines the teams, among the 14 worst of the season, which will choose first, second, third and fourth, the player of their choice in the lot of the best “prospects”, including Victor Wembanyama.
There is a very high chance that Victor Wembanyama, the French basketball phenomenon, be selected first by the lucky franchise that won the lottery jackpot on Tuesday. Also he will know before the big ceremony of June 22 his very probable future destination.
It remains to explain the operation of this game of probability and chanceto which the fourteen teams not qualified for the play-offs will lend themselves, having therefore finished the regular season with the worst records.
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In a machine are placed fourteen ping-pong balls numbered from 1 to 14 and four of them are drawn at random to form a four-digit combination, out of 1,001 possible.
Before the lottery, 1,000 of these 1,001 combinations are allocated to the fourteen teams concerned, according to a distribution determined by their balance sheet. The remaining combination is considered invalid and will be ignored if drawn.
Thus, the three franchises with the worst records are assigned 140 combinations each, which gives them a 14% chance of drawing the right one. It then goes down: the fourth worst team has 125 combinations (12.5% chance), the fifth 105 combinations (10.5% chance) and so on until the fourteenth which has only 5 combinations (0.5% chance) and therefore very little hope of winning this lottery.
Detroit, San Antonio and Houston in pole position
This system has been in effect since the 2019 draft. Previously, the odds were different.
This year, Detroit, Saint Anthony et Houston were the teams that ended the exercise with the three worst results. They therefore each have a 14% chance of having the right combination.
Charlotte (12.5%), Portland (10.5%), Orlando (9%), Indiana (6.8%), Washington (6.7%), Utah (4.5%), Dallas (3 %), Chicago (1.8%), Oklahoma City (1.7%), Toronto (1%) and New Orleans (0.5%), knowing that Dallas and Chicago might be forced to send, in some configurations, their first-round draft picks in New York and Orlando, under the terms of a past player trade.
The Magic cons on the odds in 1993
The draw of the combination takes place as follows: the 14 balls are placed in the lottery device and are shuffled for 20 seconds, then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are shuffled for another 10 seconds, then the second ball is removed, the process repeating for the third and fourth balls.
The team that has the winning combination will have won the right to choose first in the draft and will therefore throw themselves, barring a huge surprise, on Victor Wembanyama.
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The same coin toss is made to determine those who will have the second, third and fourth choices. The ten other choices, starting from the fifth, are allocated according to the balance sheet of the remaining teams, from the most to the least bad.
Note that in the past, it has happened several times that chance contradicts the probabilities. So in 1993, the Magic d’Orlando hit the jackpot despite 1.52% chance to be granted.
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