2024-03-06 21:53:23
The two sides accuse each other of trying to prevent an agreement. It is difficult to reconstruct exactly what goes on behind the scenes during the negotiations, and what becomes public always has a “spin” – real or invented details are leaked in order to indirectly influence the negotiations.
The negotiations are not only complicated in terms of content, but also in terms of communication technology: Israel and Hamas do not speak directly to each other. As a rule, negotiations are carried out with Israel first, then Egypt and Qatar, which have the most influence over Hamas, negotiate with the terrorist organization on this basis. Only if there is any prospect of an agreement will both sides send a negotiating team to Cairo or Doha. During the first hostage deal, delegations from both warring parties were in Doha at the same time. This is not the case in Cairo.
Ramadan no longer a factor?
Time is of the essence: not only because of the lives of the Israeli hostages and the civilian population in Gaza, but also because the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan begins on Sunday, during which the Middle East conflict has repeatedly escalated dangerously for many years. Unlike the first hostage deal – when Hamas quickly agreed because it wanted to get rid of the children among the hostages and needed time to reorganize itself as much as possible – this time Hamas is apparently in no hurry. There is practically no consideration for the civilian population, although the fasting requirement between sunrise and sunset is likely to further aggravate the dramatic humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip. On the contrary: the immense suffering of the residents of Gaza and the increasing international pressure on Israel is serving as Hamas’ trump card in the negotiations.
Reuters/Mahmoud Issa People in the largely destroyed city of Jabaliya in northern Gaza
And there is speculation in Israel that Hamas sees the continuation of the war during Ramadan as an opportunity to spark an uprising in the Israeli-occupied areas of East Jerusalem and the West Bank – and perhaps even among Arab Israelis. This might particularly happen if access to the Temple Mount is severely restricted for Israeli Arabs and Palestinians from the occupied territories, as demanded by the right-wing extremist Interior Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.
Hamas’ overarching goal at the moment is clear: to do everything possible to ensure that the terrorist organization remains politically, administratively and militarily incapable of action. So she is fighting for her own political survival. The Israeli hostages are by far the most important bargaining chip here.
Netanyahu emerges as a strong man
In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to fight for political survival following the state’s failure in the Hamas attack on October 7th, even if he is now back in the saddle more firmly than immediately followingwards. The longer the war lasts, the better for Netanyahu, as it puts off the political reckoning. For Netanyahu, destroying Hamas is a priority, especially for his right-wing and right-wing extremist coalition partners.
Netanyahu has long since resumed one of his favorite roles, that of the internationally experienced negotiator, who is supposedly the only one who can withstand pressure from the USA. Many relatives accuse Netanyahu of de facto giving up the hostages. The fact is that the security cabinet is divided on this issue.
Reuters/Carlos Garcia Rawlins Relatives of the hostages ask US President Biden for help
Israel as an “open book” for Hamas
The ex-generals Benni Ganz and Gadi Eisenkot, who joined the cabinet from the opposition following the Hamas attack, are pushing harder for a hostage deal and are prepared to make more concessions. But they also reject the relatives’ demands for a hostage deal at any price. Since this would become the basis for negotiations in the future in the event of further kidnappings and wars.
The internal divisions and the domestic political chaos – temporarily obscured by the tragedy of the Hamas attack, but now actually exacerbating it – also mean that many strategically important considerations often take place publicly and not behind the scenes. This makes Israel easier to read for Hamas than ever before.
Impossible conditions
Both sides set conditions that are unacceptable for the other side: Netanyahu demanded in advance a list of the hostages who would be released – actually one of the last steps following there has already been an agreement in principle. Hamas demands the right of the population – and thus Hamas – to return to northern Gaza.
From their perspective, both sides also have opportunities to escalate: Hamas might publish videos of hostages; The suffering of the population in Gaza is also constantly increasing the pressure on Israel. Israel, in turn, might attack Rafah in particular. However, finished army plans have not yet received the government’s green light.
Limiting factors for USA
From the current perspective, only significantly greater pressure from the USA – on Israel as well as on the mediators Qatar and Egypt, who have strong “levers” once morest Hamas (money, political immunity or geographical connection to the world) – can move things forward lead to rigid negotiating fronts. US President Joe Biden is sticking to his plan to use the Hamas attack and the Gaza war as an opportunity to reorganize the Middle East.
For this geostrategic alliance to neutralize Iran, which is supposed to extend from Egypt via Israel to Saudi Arabia, Biden is dependent on Cairo and Doha. This in turn means that he cannot threaten the two countries with withdrawal of financial or military aid, but must treat them as partners and can only exert pressure in diplomatic doses.
Domestic political traps for Biden
Biden has already increased the pressure on Israel, specifically Netanyahu, several levels. On Monday, Ganz was welcomed in Washington, but not Netanyahu. If there is criticism of insufficient US pressure, it is often not taken into account that Israel has been by far the US’s most important regional partner for decades – with correspondingly close economic, political and military ties.
At the same time, the conclusion of a ceasefire and a hostage deal is increasingly becoming a question of survival for Biden himself in terms of domestic politics: Given the deep divisions in the democratic electorate in the USA on the Middle East issue, he must attempt the almost impossible and find a middle ground in order to improve his own re-election chances November is not to be endangered.
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