2024-04-19 10:13:23
Business as usual in Isfahan: Iranian state media shows that the region targeted by the Israeli attack suffered no damage.
KEYSTONE
How does Iran react to Israel’s attack? Will the situation escalate completely or will the two states return to shadow war? Experts interpret the situation and the latest statements.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- Experts on the political situation in the Middle East estimate that Israel is not seeking escalation with the attack on Iran.
- By downplaying the Israeli attack, Tehran might avoid pressure to respond harshly.
- According to a retired US major general, Israel’s limited attack on a central province of Iran may be intended to demonstrate that it has the ability to hit the enemy hard.
It now seems clear: On Friday night, Israel carried out the retaliatory strike once morest Iran that had been expected for days. This allows for various interpretations, as a look at international media shows.
The experts agree that the situation is extremely dangerous and that attacks and counterattacks might escalate. At the same time, Australian political science professor Dara Conduit emphasizes: “It is clear to both sides that one direct conflict there would be no winners between the two states.”
As a reminder, Tehran has described its drone and missile attack on Israel as retaliation for Israel’s shelling of the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, killing several high-ranking military and intelligence officers.
Israel has never claimed responsibility for the attack. However, it is certain that this was a state action. Iran has announced retaliation – and followed suit. The Israeli war cabinet then spent days discussing how his country should respond.
The message behind the attack
Political science calls what is happening now “tit for tat”: the move of one side is followed by the move of the other. The question now is what kind of message Israel wants to send with the – according to previous reports – not particularly massive attack and how Iran interprets it.
The two governments not only communicate with each other, but also with their people. Dara Conduit describes: “Both are in a difficult situation and have to show the public in their countries that they react to the actions of the other side.» This is particularly true for Prime Minister Netanyahu, who finds himself in a difficult political situation and needs to show strength.
ABC News’ North America correspondent described the attack as a “limited operation.” She expresses the hope that following this attack, Iran “draws a line», so let’s leave the matter alone.
Back to the Shadow War
Holly Dagres, who works at the think tank, points in this direction Atlantic Council researches. In their assessment, Tehran is downplaying the attack and its consequences. “This might actually be a tactic to prevent them from feeling the need to go straight back to strike back once morest Israel.»
Currently, the best option seems to be for the two states to return to shadow war and mutual deterrence, the state that has existed since the revolution in Iran. Dagres sees an opportunity to do so: “This attack and Tehran’s reaction might restore deterrence.”
Achieving this may have been the Israeli government’s calculation, a retired US Army major general tells CNN. Israel had to retaliate for the Iranian attack. But the message of this retaliatory strike is: “Yes, we can hit you. So don’t do that once more, otherwise it will Chaos erupts.»
Iran: Israel’s resources are also limited
How this interpretation sounds from the Iranian position is shown by the statement of the Iranian arms control expert Ali Ahmadi on the news channel Al-Jazeera: “After Iran’s ability to retaliate has been criticized, it is certainly an advantage if Iran also advertises how it is Israeli approach ineffective was. “Iran also needs to prepare the public for a much softer response than what it has said in recent days.”
So there is at least the possibility that the limited Israeli attack will de-escalate the situation between the two hostile states.
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