2024-02-26 02:11:00
■ Host: Anchor Kim Hyun-soo, Anchor Cha Jeong-yoon
■ Appearance: Jin-ho Doo, Director of the International Strategy Research Department, Korea Institute for Defense Analyzes
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◇Anchor> Some say that the invasion of Russia and Ukraine has ushered in a new, post-global Cold War era. Do you accept the analysis that the global security landscape is fundamentally changing?
◆Jinho Doo> I believe that due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the separation of spheres of influence into the authoritarian camp and the democratic camp is actually accelerating. In fact, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is no one’s business. It is also affecting the Northeast Asia region where we live. It is having an impact in one way or another. We are strengthening our alliance to strengthen our ability to deter North Korea, and with our neighbor Japan, we are strengthening this security cooperation through a mechanism called Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation. Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, North Korea and Russia are getting closer again. I’m losing. There is not yet much interest in policy cooperation between North Korea, Russia, and North Korea, but there is also a possibility that China may become involved in the trilateral cooperation between China, Russia, and North Korea, so there is a possibility that these aspects could clearly lead to heightened military tensions in the Northeast Asia region where we live. This is still there, looking at it like this. Ukrainian defense authorities, including Ukrainian prosecutors, have already clearly announced that Russian artillery ammunition, other multiple rocket launcher ammunition, and even ballistic missiles were used, resulting in the deaths of Ukrainian soldiers and innocent civilians. At the same time, the European Union is also on the 23rd as of current time. The 13th anti-Russia package sanctions resolution was implemented, and unusually, North Korea’s Defense Minister Kang Sun-nam was included in it. Kang Soon-nam was included as an individual, and the Missile Administration was also included. To this extent, it can be seen that the European Union, including Ukraine, and the West have accepted the dangerous illegal arms trade situation between North Korea and Russia as a fait accompli and are showing solidarity in this regard. The leaders of Russia and North Korea already met at the Vostochny Cosmodrome on September 13 of last year and agreed to accelerate cooperation in various forms and levels between the two countries, and in fact, what was visible as a result of that was, I said, despite the crude level in November last year. It is believed that Russia’s advice and technical assistance were clearly involved in North Korea’s successful third military reconnaissance satellite test launch. The problem is Russia’s presidential election in the middle of next month. After a successful presidential election, May 10th will be Putin’s inauguration day, if he is elected president. It is highly likely that he will visit Pyongyang around the time of his election as president and then make a linked visit to Beijing. Therefore, it is highly likely that security cooperation between Russia and North Korea will further accelerate through President Putin’s visit to Pyongyang, and these very aspects are acting as a threat to us, our Korean Peninsula, and even our alliance.
◇Anchor> And I think the US presidential election to be held in November this year will also be a big variable. Depending on who wins, Ukraine’s support policy will change significantly. How will it change?
◆Jinho Doo> If current US President Joe Biden is elected, I don’t think there will be any problems. President Joe Biden is sincerely making a lot of effort to help Ukraine, and in fact, last year, even though he asked the US Congress to pass a security budget bill to support Ukraine, it ultimately failed to pass the House of Representatives threshold. This is because most of the House of Representatives are controlled by Republican lawmakers. Since large-scale budget support is not available at the congressional level, efforts are being made to relatively weaken Russia’s ability to continue the war through independent sanctions or policy coordination such as the European Union’s 13th anti-Russia package. I see this as a very desperate effort by President Joe Biden. The problem is that if Republican candidates, especially former President Trump, rather than President Joe Biden, are elected president, the problem will likely change very seriously. The reason is that former President Trump has been claiming on various occasions that if he is elected president, he can end this war, the war in Ukraine, within 24 hours, but he has not specifically discussed how to do so, but it is common sense. At this level, what we can expect is that by rapidly reducing weapons and financial support to Ukraine, there is concern that an atmosphere could be created that would allow Russia to win by naturally weakening Ukraine’s ability to continue the war. .
Excerpt from conversation: Lee Mi-young, Digital News Team Editor
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