2023-11-12 16:47:12
The current economy is experiencing a mix of optimism and caution, with signs of slowing growth linked to factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Despite this context, the economic outlook remains positive, fueled by encouraging feedback from business leaders and optimistic forecasts for the years to come. However, potential adjustments in monetary policies might impact access to credit in the future.
« We are in a development scenario which should allow us to escape inflation without recession. We are in a phase of slowing growth. All economic indicators confirm this scenario. The outlook is not negative, on the contrary. The resumption of growth will be gradual. Households should regain purchasing power as average salaries gradually catch up with inflation. Looking forward, these gains in purchasing power should support consumption and growth “. This is how Denis Beau, first deputy governor of the Bank of France, in Ouest France, summarizes the economic situation.
He says it openly: Covid and the war in Ukraine, which he equates to two production bottlenecks, if they are not the main cause, have contributed to slowing growth and pushing inflation up. Of course, the best scenario is to exceed this inflation without recession. For now, the projection seems to hold up since, despite the low growth estimated between 0.1 and 0.2%, it remains positive. It should increase to 1.3% for 2025. To achieve this, Denis Beau draws his optimism from the feedback of no less than 8,500 business leaders.
Towards a gradual relaunch of activity
This data should gradually revive recruitment, which is currently slowing down. In the real estate sector, production also suffered a blow, being limited to around 9.2 billion in September. She is ” down », notes Denis Beau. “ France has the most abundant and cheapest mortgage credit in Europe. On average, in the euro zone, we are at 4.25%. In France we are below 4%. We are coming out of a totally exceptional period of very low rates, linked to the very accommodating monetary policy implemented since 2015. Today we are logically returning to rate and production levels from before 2015 “, he specifies.
However, will we expect anything new in the near future, particularly in terms of conditions of access to credit? Not so sure with monetary policy tightening around the issue. “ We can always refine the implementation of this standard by aiming for possible new technical adjustments. We will see in December “, deadline of the next HCSF meeting, suggests Denis Beau, who admits not knowing what follow-up will also be reserved for the usury rate system, the monthly review of which should end on January 1, 2024.
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