2024-03-31 06:22:45
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is counting on two political tracks regarding the current war in Gaza. To mitigate the crises it faces internally and externally; While a new round of negotiations begins in Cairo regarding the prisoner and detainee exchange deal, other talks are being held in Washington to convince the American administration regarding the arrangements for the ground operation that the Israeli army intends to implement in Rafah.
Speaking to Sky News Arabia, analysts and observers believe that there is a clear shift in Israeli positions towards the Gaza war, as a result of continuing international pressure for a ceasefire and moving forward with negotiations that allow the implementation of a truce and the release of detainees in Gaza, as well as delaying the invasion of Rafah by offering… Its vision focuses on the American administration, which directly opposed this process.
“Cairo-Washington” negotiations
- In Cairo, an Israeli delegation consisting of representatives of the Shin Bet, the Israeli army, and the Mossad will arrive on Sunday. To hold talks with Egyptian intelligence in an attempt to break the deadlock in negotiations regarding a prisoner and detainee exchange deal.
- Netanyahu met with the heads of the Mossad and Shin Bet intelligence services, and his office revealed following the meeting that the Israeli Prime Minister had agreed to hold new talks in order to release the detainees as part of a possible ceasefire agreement and reach a truce in Gaza.
- Netanyahu’s office said that it approved the return of the delegation led by Mossad chief David Barnea to Doha in order to resume prisoner exchange negotiations and a ceasefire in the war on Gaza, and the head of the Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, to parallel talks in Cairo.
- The Israeli Broadcasting Corporation said that the mediators are interested in presenting a new plan to the parties in order to make this round a success.
- Despite the new round of negotiations, a number of detainees’ families called on Netanyahu to resign because of his handling of the negotiations to release detainees in Gaza, accusing him of deliberately sabotaging the talks for his own political purposes, according to the Times of Israel.
- The families of the detainees also called for a mass demonstration in front of the Knesset headquarters next week, while adjusting their movements aimed at pressing for the ouster of Netanyahu.
- In Washington, high-level talks are being held between American and Israeli officials to discuss arrangements for the military operation that Israel intends to carry out in Rafah.
- The talks scheduled for Monday come following Netanyahu suddenly canceled the talks that were scheduled to take place days ago, following the United States refrained from obstructing a Security Council resolution that called for a ceasefire in Gaza, which sparked a clear disagreement with US President Joe Biden and his administration.
- American and Israeli officials said on Wednesday that Netanyahu’s office informed the White House that it wanted to set another date for a canceled meeting to discuss the possible attack on the city of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, amid a tense climate between the two countries.
- Biden stressed to Netanyahu the need to send a delegation from his country to discuss the “Rafah process” before proceeding with any large-scale ground attack on the city, which includes more than a million displaced Palestinians.
- The Israeli delegation proposed rescheduling the talks for Monday, officials said, acknowledging that the timing was complicated by a March 31 deadline facing the Israeli government to draft a new law governing the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jews, who have long been exempt from mandatory military service.
4 new developments
Speaking to Sky News Arabia, the analyst specializing in Israeli affairs, Ghassan Muhammad, considered that the Cairo negotiations are a new attempt to get out of the dead-end tunnel in everything related to the prisoner exchange deal, and a continuation of the previous negotiations, although there is still no data indicating the possibility of… Reaching an agreement between the two sides.
Ghassan said, however, that several developments must be taken into account that may contribute to bringing the solution closer or at least overcoming some of the points of disagreement that still exist between the two parties, including:
- Firstly: The crisis between the Biden administration and Netanyahu, which worsened further following Washington abstained from voting in the Security Council on the ceasefire resolution.
- secondlyNetanyahu retracted his decision to cancel the visit of an Israeli delegation to Washington and announced that the delegation would head to the United States to discuss the situation, especially the Rafah operation and the prisoner deal.
- Third: Threatening the families of Israeli prisoners to escalate to demand an agreement to return the detainees at any cost.
- Fourthly: Disagreements within the “War Cabinet,” where some of its members support the deal no matter the cost.
The truce negotiations faltered in Cairo
Netanyahu’s siege
The analyst specializing in Israeli affairs stated that Netanyahu is trying to exploit the time factor. Hoping to achieve gains or achievements that will allow him to agree to a deal with the least possible losses.
He added: “Netanyahu knows that his political fate has been decided regardless of the results of the Cairo and Washington negotiations, especially since he has become more besieged from inside and outside and is now between the jaws of pincers. He has no options or cards that allow him to continue procrastinating and maneuvering, but he hopes to… Obtaining guarantees that guarantee his political and personal future, because he knows that ending the war means resuming his trial.”
As a result of this siege, the Israeli Prime Minister may be forced to make concessions regarding the prisoners’ file and withdraw from the military operation in Rafah under American and Western pressure, according to Ghassan.
What is behind Israel’s flexibility?
For his part, the expert specializing in international relations, Ayman Samir, in his statements to Sky News Arabia, believes that there are a number of moves that reveal that Tel Aviv has become open to offering a kind of “flexibility” that might constitute the beginning of a new deal between Hamas. And Israel in the coming days.
“Samir” pointed out that with the visit of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to Washington, and the US administration setting Monday as the date for the start of talks between Israel and the United States regarding the Rafah operation, major changes appeared in the Israeli position on a number of issues, including the acceptance not to occupy the Gaza Strip, as it was Israel previously talked regarding occupying Gaza, whether temporarily or permanently, but following regarding 6 months had passed, it became clear to it that this was impossible, and that the only option available to it was to protect its residents around Gaza.
However, internal pressures on Netanyahu play a major role in allowing flexibility in the Gaza truce negotiations, especially since his vision of continuing the war regardless of the negotiations is not unanimous either in the war council or among the Israeli political elite, and there are many prominent figures in the opposition. They greatly support the truce, according to the expert specializing in international relations.
“Samir” pointed out that the demonstrations of the prisoners’ families, whether in front of the government headquarters or in front of his house, represent great pressure on Netanyahu, which prompted him to send two teams to complete the negotiations, one to Cairo and the other to Doha, especially with the blockage of the military horizon for reaching the detainees without the path of diplomacy.
He stressed that the continued American criticism at all levels within the administration recently has affected Netanyahu, as he is currently seeking to improve his position.
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