2023-04-25 16:08:20
Airfare prices are skyrocketing across Europe and beyond, leading many US travelers to wonder if the days of cheap flights are over.
Both long-haul and short-haul flights are affected, with ticket prices in France jumping 23.6% compared to last year, according to statistics from the Ministry of Ecological Transition. Prices for international flights from the UK meanwhile are up around 18% on a year ago, according to travel booking site Kayak.
“There are still a lot of pent-up travel requests since the pandemic“, says Evan Kaya. “This demand, combined with rising inflation and the high cost of fuel, has kept flight prices high.
What explains the surge in flight prices?
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sanctions on fuel imports sent prices skyrocketing. “Due to the 71% increase in oil prices year over year, our average rate increased by 31%“, advance Johan Lundgren, CEO of Easyjet. Fuel represents a very important part of the costs of carriers, around 30%.
A sharp increase in maintenance costs linked to the scarcity of certain metals and the disruption of supply chains has also contributed to the phenomenon, indicates Marc Rochet, director of the French companies Air Caraïbes and French Bee. He also discusses the impact of wage increases in the airline industry. Yet despite rising prices and inflation also straining consumers’ wallets, the demand for flights is not diminishing.
Flight demand exceeds availability
Despite the easing of restrictions and the opening up of the world last year, strikes and cancellations have disrupted many long-awaited trips. This situation only fueled the desire to travel.
Some airports, such as Schiphol in Amsterdam and Heathrow in London, have capped passenger numbers to reduce the impact of staff shortages. This has forced airlines to reduce their schedules.
Airlines like Flybe and Flyr have gone bankrupt, while others are facing financial difficulties following being grounded for years due to COVID. This situation has slowed growth, prevented airlines from regaining full capacity and left them in dire need of additional cash. With fewer places available than before the pandemic, demand is outstripping supply.
And as remote working retains its grip, business travel has failed to rebound, meaning greater dependence on revenue from economy class seats.
At the same time, Airbus and Boeing are struggling to deliver new planes on time. Airlines will therefore have fewer planes than expected this year.
Boeing’s CEO told a meeting earlier this month that manufacturing delays will result in regarding 9,000 fewer seats this summer, which might force airlines to cut flight numbers and routes.
Will flights remain expensive?
There are signs that airlines are gradually starting to recover from the pandemic. The aviation sector “is in very good shape, in full rebound”, according to Pascal Fabre, specialist in this field within the financial consulting company AlixPartners.
In this context of rising prices, many airlines “achieved a higher turnover in 2022 than before the crisis, while capacities remain low“, he notes.
This is the case of Air France-KLM, which announced at the beginning of the month that it had “fully refunded” the aid granted by the French State to enable him to survive COVID-19.
However, fuel prices remain high and the risk of further strikes threatens this summer. Eurowings CEO Jens Bischof said he expects flight prices to rise further due to rising fuel, staff and airport costs, according to a report by the German media group. funky. “Flying for a taxi fare is no longer possible“, Mr. Bischof told Funke. He predicted that flights will be around 20% more expensive in high season this year than in 2022.
As the EU introduces increasingly strict legislation to reduce aircraft emissions, aircraft operators may also need to invest in more efficient aircraft. They will also have to buy emission allowances to offset their carbon footprint. The cost of these measures might lead to further increases in ticket prices in the future.
Is it still possible to get cheap flights?
Although flight prices are higher than normal, they remain at least stable. “Our data shows that flight prices have remained virtually stable over the past six months“, explains Evan.
However, you may have noticed that booking in advance is no longer a surefire way to get a good deal. This can be explained by the fact that the uncertainty related to the pandemic has dissipated and that more and more people prefer this technique to a risky late booking.
Evan suggests using Kayak’s data-driven forecasting tool to get “price alerts“on the flights.
A new ‘Savings Generator’ tool on flight comparison site Skyscanner – currently in beta mode – might also help you figure out the cheapest day to fly.
Beyond the current ability to search for “cheapest month”, this tool uses data to help you determine how far in advance you should book for your specific itinerary, which day and time are the cheapest , and how your flight price compares to the average.
If you have the freedom to choose your travel dates, flying earlier in the summer is a good way to save money. According to data from Kayak, the end of July is the most expensive time to travel from the UK, and Saturday is the most expensive day of the week.
By flying in early June, you might save up to 44% on flights and 15% on hotels. Kayak reveals that Sunday is the best day for UK domestic flights, Tuesday for European flights and Wednesday for long-haul international flights. Foregoing extras such as checked baggage can also help reduce the price of your trip.
Where are the cheapest destinations in 2023?
It may seem obvious, but flights to less touristy places are often cheaper, especially when you factor in accommodation and meals.
If you absolutely want to go further, you can set your sights on the United States, says Evan. “Flight prices are still at last year’s level for several American cities”. For the best rates, consider cities like Dallas (Texas), Atlanta (Georgia), Orlando (Florida), and Tampa (Florida).
What are the alternatives to flying?
European investments in rail infrastructure are making train travel cheaper and easier than ever. Companies like NightJet and European Sleeper are bringing new overnight trains to the continent that rival the convenience of flying. Spain and Italy adopt new EU rules on rail liberalisation, opening up the market to low-cost rail operators such as Ouigo and Iryo.
Taking the train now might also protect you from emission-related flight price hikes in the future – and help you reduce the impact of your holiday on the planet. “We all need to rethink how we travel and how we can have a more positive impact when we do.says Justin Francis, CEO and co-founder of activist vacation company Responsible Travel.
“Part of this job – as difficult as it may seem – is to fly less. That may mean taking a single longer trip this year with a flight. It can also mean embarking on a rail adventure or staying close to home.“, he advises.
Justin cites Responsible Travel’s micro-boat cruises in Scotland, canoeing adventures on the Dordogne in France and bike tours through Italy’s Chianti vineyards as proof that “flying less doesn’t have to mean lack”.
Check out some of Europe’s best new rail routes here (article to be read in English).
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