NATO’s “red lines” for entering the war in Ukraine; Baltic countries on the list

NATO countries have “confidentially” established two “red lines”, when crossed, direct intervention of the North Atlantic Alliance in the war in Ukraine is possible. The Italian publication La Repubblica reported this on Sunday, May 5, citing sources. However, it notes that NATO is not developing any operational plans.

The first “red line” concerns the threat of Russia breaking through the defense line of Ukraine and the participation of a third country in the war, namely Belarus, writes La Repubblica. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, the material says, cannot fully control the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, which creates conditions for the Russian Armed Forces to break through into the corridor between Ukraine and Belarus. As the newspaper suggests, “then Minsk will be directly involved in the military dispute,” and “its troops and arsenal will be of decisive importance for Moscow.” And this circumstance may intensify NATO’s actions in favor of Ukraine, the article indicates.

The second “red line,” according to La Repubblica, is a possible Russian provocation once morest the Baltic countries, Poland, or a “targeted attack on Moldova.”

NATO is preparing for conflict with a “virtually equal enemy”

According to the newspaper, NATO began preparing for war with Russia using the entire coalition. As an example, the publication cites the four-month, largest alliance exercise since 1988, Steadfast Defender 2024, which began in Europe at the end of January, simulating a conflict with a “virtually equal enemy.” About 90,000 people are involved in the exercise. According to the dpa agency, the Steadfast Defender maneuver scenario is a Russian attack on allied territory, which triggers Article 5 of the NATO collective defense treaty.

In February, French President Emmanuel Macron admitted that Western ground forces might be deployed in Ukraine. However, many alliance members, including Germany, immediately rejected this idea. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also ruled out the possibility of sending combat units of the alliance to Ukraine.