IThere are evidently warnings circulating within NATO that Russian President Vladimir Putin might seek armed conflict with the West beyond Ukraine. As diplomats from several states of the military alliance reported to the “Spiegel”, there are fears that the Russian armed forces might use their recently massive increased presence in the Mediterranean, the North Atlantic and the Arctic to strike on a broad front – even once morest NATO countries. In such a case, massive disinformation campaigns and cyber attacks can also be expected.
According to NATO, there are currently no concrete indications of preparations for such an attack. But Moscow’s opportunities for escalation are real – and in an emergency, NATO would not have to quickly counter Russia, either militarily or digitally.
US President Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, said on Thursday: “It is certainly the case that the risk of a military invasion is high.” have finally decided in favor of military action in Ukraine ”. Sullivan urged Moscow to de-escalate and reduce the number of soldiers in the region.
USA: “We are prepared for any eventuality”
He went on to say: “We and our allies are prepared for any eventuality.” This applies both to diplomatic negotiations and in the event that Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks military escalation. “We made Russia very clear regarding the costs and consequences of further military actions or the destabilization of Ukraine.” Sullivan once more threatened Moscow with economic and financial sanctions, export control measures and armament of Ukraine “if the Russian military crossed the Ukrainian border “.
Most recently, the Russian government has asked NATO to undertake by contract not to accept any further former Soviet republics and to withdraw its troops from the eastern allies. Putin has gathered around 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine.
A leading Russian diplomat has also toured the possibility of the Russian military becoming involved in the American continent. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said in an interview with Russian television broadcaster RTVI TV on Thursday that he might neither confirm nor rule out the possibility of Russia stationing military infrastructure in Cuba and Venezuela. How things go on depends solely on the USA. The US government dismissed this as rumbling.
Ryabkov had led the Russian delegation in the US-Russian talks on the tense situation on the Ukrainian border and other security issues in Geneva on Monday. The discussions in Geneva and the talks between Russia and NATO on Wednesday in Vienna failed to overcome the rifts with regard to the security guarantees demanded by Russia once morest the background of the Russian troop build-up near Ukraine.
According to Western estimates, Russia has concentrated around 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine, which has led to growing concerns regarding an invasion. The government in Moscow denies any intention to attack, but regards the NATO accession of former members of the Warsaw Military Pact as a threat to its security. Among other things, President Vladimir Putin is demanding guarantees that NATO will not accept any further states that previously belonged to the Soviet Union. In addition, NATO should withdraw military equipment not only from Ukraine, but also from its member countries Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. In talks between Russia, the USA and NATO this week it was not possible to bridge the rifts.
“We have nowhere to retreat”
Ryabkov said the U.S. and its allies’ refusal to consider Russia’s core demand made it difficult to talk regarding confidence-building measures that Washington has signaled willingness to negotiate. The US wanted to have a dialogue on some elements of the security situation in order to reduce tensions and then continue the course of geopolitical and military development closer to Moscow. “We have nowhere to withdraw,” said Ryabkov, referring to Putin’s threat that Russia might take military-technical measures if the US provoked and increased military pressure.
A senior US government official was unfazed by Ryabkov’s suggestion that Russian soldiers might be stationed in Latin America. “We will not respond to noise,” he said. “If Russia should actually move in this direction, we would respond decisively.”
Shortly following his election in 2000, Putin ordered a Soviet-era military facility in Cuba. In 2018, Russia briefly stationed nuclear-capable bombers in Venezuela to support its President Nicolás Maduro.
Tensions over Ukraine and the Russian demands on the West were also topics at the meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Vienna. The Polish Foreign Minister and OSCE Chairman Zbigniew Rau said in his opening speech: “The risk of war in the OSCE area is now greater than it has ever been in the past 30 years.” Rau underlined the need to seek a peaceful solution to the conflict and to focus Ukraine, “in full recognition of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and unity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned of a complete break in Russian-American relations if sanctions demanded by Democratic senators in the US were imposed on Putin and other civil and military leaders. These would also provide for punitive measures once morest Russian financial institutions in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Peskov interpreted demands for sanctions as an attempt to increase pressure on Russia during the talks. But this will not succeed. Russia will respond accordingly in order to protect the country’s interests, warned Peskov.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also condemned the sanctions proposals as an expression of American “arrogance”. Moscow expects a written response to its demands from the US and NATO in the coming week in order to consider further steps, he said.
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