The National Council election has been won and, according to initial projections, it has brought the FPÖ first place for the first time. The ÖVP follows well behind with a record loss, while the SPÖ stagnates in third place. The Greens and NEOS are roughly on a par. The small parties such as the KPÖ and the Beer Party are likely to miss out on entering the National Council. It is still unclear whether a coalition between ÖVP and SPÖ will emerge. In any case, an FP/VP collaboration would have a majority.
According to foresight projections for APA and ORF, the Freedom Party achieved 29.1 percent (plus 12.9), the People’s Party achieved 26.3 percent (minus 11.2). The SPÖ was elected by 20.9 percent (minus 0.3). 8.7 percent (minus 5.2) voted for the Greens and 8.8 percent (plus 0.7) for the NEOS. Of the small parties, the KPÖ performed best, but was also far from the four percent limit.
The FPÖ is therefore even above its record result from 1999 (26.9), the ÖVP just avoids its historically worst result from 2013 (24 percent), and the SPÖ could flourish. On the other hand, the NEOS have probably never been as strong in a National Council election as they are today, with the Greens clearly falling behind by around five percentage points.
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Initial reactions in the FPÖ were modest, but Secretary General Michael Schnedlitz celebrated that the Austrians had made history. Despite all the disappointment, VP General Secretary Christian Stocker confirmed that they did not want to form a coalition with the Freedom Party under Herbert Kickl: “That was the case yesterday and it is the case today.” SP Federal Managing Director Klaus Seltenheim spoke of a painful result, for which he also blamed the internal quarrels. It is important that one party speaks with one voice. He doesn’t see top candidate Andreas Babler resigning: “The project is of course not finished.”
Social Minister Johannes Rauch first appeared in front of the microphones for the Greens: “I believe it is a task to continue fighting,” he said in his first reaction to his party’s loss. On behalf of NEOS, Secretary General Douglas Hoyos recalled that a record result had been achieved. He sees his party as ready to form a government – as does Rauch the Greens.
In any case, forming a government will be difficult. Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen will be responsible for giving the mandate to form a government. There is no automatic rule that the first-placed player gets the chance. The head of state has left all options open in this regard.
The election of the National Council President will also be interesting. Because the fact that the strongest force gets the office is just a custom, not a mandatory requirement.
There will probably be a long wait for the provisional overall results in the evening – according to the electoral authority, this is not expected before 11 p.m. The reason for this is the electoral law reform that has been in effect since the beginning of 2024. Unlike before, the majority of postal votes will now be counted on election Sunday. That and the record number of 1,436,240 absentee ballots issued will probably take more time to count. In the National Council election in 2019 there were 1,070,933 postal voting cards, and in the EU election this June there were 958,948.
This article was updated on September 29th. at 5:44 p.m.
