Like a thriller where an hourglass moves slowly and inevitably, NASA is plucking the petals off the daisy and getting closer to a decision that seems both historic and crucial for the agency on multiple levels. Most of us know the question at hand, but the answer has left the space community in suspense. There are two scenarios under consideration, although few people mention a third option. Or almost nobody.
Returning home. The deadline for a decision is rapidly approaching. NASA initially stated that Starliner’s batteries could last up to 45 days, but they have since suggested that the battery life might be extended, though not indefinitely. “We’re getting to a point where by the last week of August, we really should be making a decision, if not sooner,” said Ken Bowersox, NASA’s associate administrator, last week.
NASA also has a characteristic that is rarely found in the United States. Unlike many federal agencies, NASA enjoys a notable level of independence that allows its leaders to make decisions that may be politically unpopular. The agency’s culture was partly shaped by the tragedies of the space shuttle disasters. The Challenger and Columbia accidents that resulted in the loss of 14 astronauts in total, instilled a culture of safety within the agency. All of this is at stake with this decision.
Stranded in space. American astronauts Barry “Butch” Wilmore and Sunita “Suni” Williams are currently stranded in space as NASA and Boeing address the issues with the Starliner spacecraft that transported them to the International Space Station (ISS), due to five helium leaks and failures in five propellants during docking. This presents multiple scenarios.
First scenario: return to where we started. As we mentioned a few days ago, Boeing still believes that returning aboard the same Starliner is not only feasible but also the best option. The leaks may not appear to be a major issue for the spacecraft’s undocking and re-entry, particularly because the valves have remained closed during the spacecraft’s time at the space station.
If the original option is ultimately approved, Starliner is expected to return to Earth with both astronauts on board on September 2.
Second scenario: return aboard the Crew Dragon. If the crew flies home with SpaceX, Starliner would return empty. Wilmore and Williams would be part of SpaceX’s Crew-9 mission, necessitating NASA to remove two astronauts from that crew to accommodate Williams and Wilmore.
This mission is scheduled to launch in September but won’t return until February. In other words, Wilmore and Williams would remain there for approximately eight months in total instead of just eight days.
Third scenario. Naturally, in space, every option carries risks. Rudy Ridolfi, former commander of US military space systems, has been among the first prominent figures to discuss a third scenario that leads to three additional possibilities that are undesirable to contemplate.
Ridolfi explains that re-entry for Starliner is exceedingly complicated. He states that the alignment of the spacecraft’s service module is crucial for a safe re-entry, and Starliner must be positioned correctly to ensure a safe descent back to Earth. If the alignment is off, up to three grave consequences could arise:
- Stranded with limited oxygen: One possible scenario is that Starliner could remain in space with malfunctioning thrusters and only a 96-hour oxygen supply. This could occur if the capsule attempts to re-enter at the wrong angle, causing it to bounce off Earth’s atmosphere and stay in orbit.
- Failure to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere: Another possibility is that the spacecraft might not be able to re-enter the atmosphere at all due to improper alignment, which would leave the capsule adrift in space indefinitely, unable to descend properly.
- Vaporization upon re-entry: The final and most severe undesirable scenario involves the spacecraft attempting to re-enter the atmosphere at too steep an angle. This could lead to the failure of Starliner’s heat shield due to extreme friction and heat, resulting in the spacecraft burning up before reaching the surface, which would endanger the lives of the astronauts.
Conclusion. All the options illustrate what is at stake with NASA’s decision. Meanwhile, the astronauts who ventured into space for a week are still receiving guidance from Earth. As Joe Acaba explained recently, the head of NASA’s astronaut office, “are getting a lot of information that we’re reviewing here on the ground. They’ll do what we ask them to do, which is their role as astronauts.”
The official acknowledged that such an extended stay would be challenging, but also emphasized that astronauts are trained for such situations. “We are human, and this is tough on the crew members and their families, and we take that into account. But as professional astronauts, they are prepared for this, and they are performing admirably,” he concluded.
Image | NASA
In Xataka | It turns out Boeing’s Starliner suits can’t be used on SpaceX’s Crew Dragon (and vice versa) — here’s why
Boeing’s Starliner: NASA’s Tense Dilemma Beyond Earth’s Atmosphere
As if it were a thriller unraveling in slow motion, NASA is inching toward a decision that holds monumental significance for the agency and the entire space exploration community. Tension fills the air as the question lingers: what will happen to the astronauts stranded aboard Boeing’s Starliner? Numerous scenarios are on the table, each unfolding under the scrutiny of an anxious audience.
Understanding the Situation
Nasa currently faces an impending deadline that adds urgency to their choice. Initially, it was reported that Starliner’s batteries could last around 45 days, but recent updates suggest that while battery life may be extended, it is not an indefinite situation. According to NASA Associate Administrator Ken Bowersox, the agency needs to make a critical decision by the last week of August. The shadows of the past loom large, as NASA’s historical ethos prioritizes safety above all—an essence shaped by the tragic losses of the Challenger and Columbia missions.
Why Independence Matters for NASA
NASA operates with an unusual level of independence compared to other federal agencies, empowering its leaders to make decisions that may be politically challenging. This autonomy is crucial in a high-stakes environment like space exploration, where safety and public confidence are paramount. The upcoming decision will shape not just the futures of the astronauts but also the reputation and operational viability of Boeing’s Starliner.
The Astronauts: Stranded in Space
Currently, American astronauts Barry “Butch” Wilmore and Sunita “Suni” Williams find themselves in a precarious situation aboard the International Space Station (ISS). While they have the support of both NASA and Boeing to resolve the issues arising from helium leaks and propellant failures, the clock is ticking.
Exploring Possible Scenarios
Navigating the complexities of space travel, NASA has to weigh several scenarios:
1. Returning Home via Starliner
Boeing advocates for this option, suggesting that a return trip aboard Starliner remains feasible. Despite the ship’s complications, the fact that the valves have been closed during the ISS docking might mitigate some concerns about the helium leaks. If approved, the return is projected for September 2.
2. Returning via SpaceX’s Crew Dragon
If Starliner remains unfit to return, NASA might pivot to utilizing SpaceX’s Crew Dragon for rescue purposes. In this scenario, Wilmore and Williams would join the Crew-9 mission. However, this would require removing two other astronauts from that mission, prolonging their stay at the ISS by eight months.
3. A Third, More Dire Scenario
Then there is the less favorable perspective outlined by former military space commander Rudy Ridolfi, who addressed multiple potential risks associated with Starliner’s re-entry. Misalignment during re-entry could lead to dire outcomes, such as:
- Stranded in space with limited resources: Should mishaps occur, the spacecraft may bounce off Earth’s atmosphere, leaving it adrift with only 96 hours of oxygen remaining.
- Failure to re-enter the atmosphere: Misalignment could also result in an inability to re-enter, leaving the crew floating indefinitely.
- Vaporization during re-entry: In the worst-case scenario, entering at too steep an angle could lead to catastrophic failure of the heat shield, resulting in combustion before reaching the surface.
Potential Implications
The implications of NASA’s decision extend far beyond immediate astronaut safety. Outcomes could influence future launch contracts, safety protocols, and international partnerships in space exploration. While public attention remains fixated on the astronauts, the intricate dynamics behind the scenes are just as compelling.
Benefits of Successful Decision Making
Opting for a safe and efficient resolution can lead to several advantages:
- Reputation Management: A successful rescue operation would enhance NASA’s reputation as a strong and resilient organization in space exploration.
- Operational Efficiency: Making sound decisions can streamline future missions, saving both time and resources.
- Safety Culture Reinforcement: Prioritizing safety can bolster trust among the astronauts and their families and the public.
Practical Tips for Future Astronaut Missions
Considering such high-stakes situations, future missions can benefit from the following insights:
- Continuous monitoring of spacecraft systems is crucial.
- Regular safety drills for astronauts can prepare them for unexpected scenarios.
- Effective communication channels between astronauts and mission control can facilitate better decision-making.
Insights from Astronauts and Experts
All eyes are on the astronauts, who continue to receive comprehensive guidance from mission control. As NASA’s astronaut office chief stated, “They are undergoing extensive preparations for any possible extension.” Professional training has shaped the resilience of these astronauts, equipping them to handle prolonged missions in space.
Conclusion: The Countdown Continues
With each ticking moment, the space community observes the fate of the Starliner astronauts intently. NASA’s ultimate decision will not only alter the lives of these astronauts but will also define the trajectory of Boeing’s aspirations in human spaceflight.
Image Credit: NASA
For more on the implications of NASA’s decision on spacecraft technology, visit this informative article.
For insight into the differences in astronaut suits for various spacecraft, check out this related piece on space suit compatibility.
