With sales volumes of old homes falling sharply and prices falling further… the latest economic report from the Notaries of France reports a real estate market that is more than seized up in the first quarter of 2024.
On the national territory, the prices of old housing fell for the third consecutive quarter over one year by -5.2%, in the first quarter of 2024.
Prices fell by -5.5% for apartments and -4.9% for houses, according to the Notaries of France.
A decline that should ease
This decline should ease in the coming months to settle at -4.8% over one year at the end of August 2024, notaries estimate.
While the price drop was greater for apartments than for houses in the first quarter of 2024, it would now be equivalent on both markets.
In the provinces, projections also predict a slowdown in the decline at the end of August 2024. “It would still be a little more marked on the market for old houses (-4.7% over one year) than on that of old apartments (-3.7% over one year)”, they emphasize.
Lyon: the biggest price drop for apartments
While the price of old apartments is down by -7.9% in Paris (€9,490 per square meter), it is down by -10.2% in Lyon (€4,480 per square meter), the largest drop recorded among major French cities in the first quarter of 2024.
Grenoble, Saint-Étienne, Mulhouse… up to -8.5%
In Grenoble, the price of old apartments fell by -8.5% (€2,400 per square meter), while it decreased by -3.6% (€2,280 per square meter), by -3.8% in Besançon (€1,990 per square meter), by -4.8% in Dijon (€2,460 per square meter), by 5.3% in Nancy (€2,140 per square meter), by -5.4% in Saint-Étienne (€1,140 per square meter) and by -6.7% in Mulhouse (€1,140 per square meter).
Strasbourg is showing rising prices!
Like Nice or Amiens, the city of Strasbourg has seen the price of its apartments increase by +1.1%, or €3,410 per square meter.
Old houses: things are also falling apart in Grenoble and Saint-Étienne
Old houses also saw their prices fall sharply in the Grenoble metropolitan area (-10.8%; €323,800 for the median price), in the Metz Eurometropolis (-9.3%; €226,700), in the Saint-Étienne metropolitan area (-8.3%; €212,500) and in Greater Nancy (-7.4%; €210,000).
The drop in the price of old houses is a little less pronounced in the Lyon metropolitan area (-5.7%; €399,700).
Like Orléans or Chartres, the price of old houses is increasing in the Dijon metropolitan area, by +3.1% (€265,000).
Sales down by almost 23%
The cumulative volume of sales of existing homes over the last 12 months in France reached 793,000 transactions at the end of May 2024.
The annual decline has stabilized at just over 20% since November 2023, now reaching -22.6%. “We have to go back to December 2015 to find transaction volumes at this level,” notaries indicate. “At the current rate of decline, this volume could fall below the 750,000 mark at the end of the summer. The start of the school year in September will be pivotal for the activity of the real estate market, in light of more favorable elements that were beginning to emerge at the dawn of this summer.”
According to them, the recovery of demand will come through a drop in credit rates, but this “could be called into question by the political uncertainty arising from the recent dissolution of the National Assembly.”
However, the French people’s appetite for the stone refuge is not diminishing, say the Notaries.
