Nagorno Karabakh, peace is now one step away. What can still hinder it –

Armenia and Azerbaijan are getting closer and closer to a difficult peace in Nagorno Karabakh, the region of the South Caucasus that has been at the center of a dispute between the two countries for more than 30 years. A peace that remains difficult, however. The road ahead may not be long, but it is fraught with risks linked to events that could cause a process that is making slow progress to collapse. The two countries are working and are close to a definitive agreement regarding the mutual recognition of a disputed border. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared that the two countries “have never been so close to peace” and just a few days ago he announced that a text to be submitted to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is being prepared and the signatures could arrive in November. A circumstance confirmed by the words of Pashinyan himself.

Words that have created trust and hope, but which have been hit like an axe just two days ago by warnings from Azerbaijan itself. “Stop provocations or our army will be forced to respond with all means necessary to guarantee the defense of the country,” reads a note released by the Ministry of Defense in Baku. What has infuriated President Aliyev are the joint military exercises between the Armenian and American armies, the weapons that France has sent to Yerevan, but also the first tranche of the 10 million euros in military aid that the European Union has allocated to Armenia. Furthermore, in recent days Azerbaijan has declared that it has shot down four small Armenian reconnaissance vehicles.

Crucial to resolving the impasse is that Armenia and Azerbaijan honor the agreement reached at the end of April to begin border demarcation work. Field work to be carried out based on Soviet-era maps. The way to demarcate their respective territories was paved by Pashinyan’s decision in March to return to Azerbaijan four villages occupied by Armenian forces in 1990: Askipara, Baghanis Ayrum, Gizilhajili and Kheirimly. These are settlements abandoned during the conflict years, but which belonged to Azerbaijan during the Soviet Union. However, numerous obstacles remain to a solution to the dispute. Pashinyan’s openness to signing an agreement has sparked vehement protests that have put the government in difficulty. Pressure from France and military aid from the EU have increased tensions. The conflict in Nagorno Karabakh has shown over the years that it has always been latent and always ready to explode. The latest example was less than a year ago.