MRB trends: ND's wide lead - What is happening in the PASOK battle - What are the citizens' problems 2024-07-13 01:30:53

As the MRB reports, “this particular electoral contest, although it usually belongs to the second category electoral contests (European elections), nevertheless triggered political developments in the opposition area, while there are also disturbances in the ruling party which, however, in no way threaten the governmental stability. For the first time since 2019 there was clear disapproval of government policy.

The European Elections of 2024 may well be characterized as the “Election of the Losers” since none of the three largest parties achieved the goals they set for these elections, while the great Negative Protagonist was Abstention, which had purely political
characteristics”.

Voting intention

In the voting intention, the trends of the MRB record a wide lead of the ND. Without reduction the lead reaches 12.8 points and with reduction 15.2 points. In the intention, the ND gathers 24.9% and maintains a double difference from the 2nd SYRIZA which gathers 12.1%. In 3rd place is PASOK – KINAL with 11.1%, followed by KKE with 7.6% and Hellenic Solution with 7.3%. Over 3% is collected by Pleussi Eleftherias, while MeRA25 collects 2.9%. Finally, the percentage of Vote Intention for the Voice of Reason stands at 2.7%.

Intention to vote by recall

SW: 29.7%
SYRIZA: 14.5%
PASOK: 13.3%
KKE: 9.1%
Greek Solution: 9.3%
Win: 3.5%
Freedom of Navigation: 4.3%
New Left: 2.3%
MeRA25 25: 3.5%
Voice of Reason: 3.2%
Patriots: 2.2%
Other Party: 5.7%

“The Rally of the ND in terms of its June 2023 electoral base is at a relatively low level (68.7%). The Conspiracy of SYRIZA is roughly the same, while its Conspiracy is a little higher
PASOK.

The percentages of the two largest opposition parties do not refer to parties in power. The long-term polling data as well as the election results leave little room for optimism for those who expect the specific parties to be an alternative government proposal in the near future on their own, at least with the current structure, function and political narrative. The majority of citizens who self-identify as Center-Left and Left-wing want partnerships,” MRB reports.

Center left

“On the occasion of the results of the European elections, a new cycle of discussions has opened regarding the center-left and the union of the forces of the specific political space, so as to create a political force in response to the pluralism presented by the specific political space, which might function as an alternative government proposal to the ND”.

1 in 2 want the cooperation of the forces of the Center-Left space

“47.5% of all respondents believe that there should be cooperation between the forces in the field and 36.8% that they should follow an autonomous path.

Among voters who identify themselves as centrists, the percentage in favor of collaborations increases to 53.7%, among center-left and leftists to around 61%.

Only the Right and Center Right are in favor of the autonomous course of the political forces moving in the opposing ideological camp.

When the question becomes more specific and the respondents are asked to answer with a view to the next Parliamentary elections for the creation of a joint party body, 44.7% of the total sample is positioned positively and 42.1% negatively, among Central voters the percentage of positive placements increases to 56% on the center-left to 57% and on the Left to 48%.

The move does not concern only the two major parties in the area, SYRIZA and PASOK – KINAL, but also the smaller ones, such as the New Left, Pleussi Eleftherias and Mera 25. Only the KKE gathers low participation rates, a consequence of the 7 parties 2 policies policy
Among the voters of the center-left parties, those of SYRIZA, Plefsis Eleftherias and New Left most desire the creation of a single body until the next parliamentary elections. PASOK-KINAL and KKE voters appear divided.

It should be noted that the scope of the research recorded the effect of the first round of the Parliamentary elections in France but did not record the effect of the result of the second round, where the deadlocked left managed to show a common ballot New People’s Front and occupy the first place in the number of seats in the Parliamentary elections”, says the MRB in its analysis.

Internal party developments PASOK

“The failure to achieve the electoral goals (Second place in the elections and a significant increase in the electoral power of the party) for PASOK-KINAL triggered the procedures for the emergence of new leadership in the party.

So far, the seven members of the party have declared their candidacy (when the collection of interviews for the measurement began, four of the seven had announced their candidacy. (Nikos Androulakis, Haris Doukas, Pavlos Geroulanos, Michalis Katrinis). Due to the fluidity that exists in terms of the final composition of the list of candidates and the time distance from the elections, the survey recorded the probability of voting for each candidate separately and not the intention to vote.

It should be mentioned that regarding the evaluation of the result of the European elections for PASOK-KINAL, the base of the party is divided, with half of them believing that the result is a defeat and the other half considering it as a success.

The same division appears on the question of whether intra-party ballots should be set up. Half of June 2024 voters said yes, while the rest said the party should continue as it is, without internal party elections.

As one moves away from the narrow party base and from those who now declare their intention to participate in the internal party process, the percentage of those who believe that it is imperative to hold internal party elections for the emergence of new leadership in the party increases.

At the given moment in the entire sample, the current President of PASOK Nikos Androulakis leads with 28% and the Mayor of Athens X. Doukas follows with 27.1%. In 3rd place is Mr. P. Geroulanos with 19%. Mr. M. Katrinis collects a single-digit percentage”.

In various critical audiences the dynamics of the candidates are presented in the tables below:

Today, the current president N. Androulakis seems to have a lead with the dynamic as a weapon in the narrow party audience. But the more the audience opens up, the more dynamic Mr. X. Doukas grows. Finally, no one can rule out Mr. P. Gerulano.

Evaluation of political leaders

In the first measurement of TRENDS following the European elections of June 2024, the popularity (positive judgments – He is among the best + Favorable Opinion) for the Prime Minister of the country, Mr. K. Mitsotakis, stands at 31.1%.

The leader of the Official Opposition, Mr. S. Kasselakis, is positively evaluated by 19.8% of citizens, a percentage that places him in 4th place among political leaders, while the popularity of Mr. N. Androulakis is at 18.1% and himself occupies the 5th place

The evaluations of the party leaders are as follows:

Kyriakos Mitsotakis -> 31.1%
Dimitris Koutsoubas -> 20.8%
Zoe Konstantopoulou -> 20.7%
Stefanos Kasselakis->19.8%
Nikos Androulakis -> 18.1%
Kyriakos Velopoulos -> 17.1%
Aphrodite Latinopoulos -> 11.5%
Dimitris Natsios -> 8.7%
Alexis Haritsis ->6.5%

In Prime Minister Suitability (with all political leaders) Mr. K. Mitsotakis leads 28.3% (Dec. 2023 36.2%), with a big difference from Stefanos Kasselakis 10.6% (Dec. 2023 7.3% ). N. Androulakis with a percentage of 7.3% (Dec. 2023 11%) comes in 3rd place. And in the question between the three (Mitsotakis, Kasselakis, Androulakis) the order remains the same, with K. Mitsotakis gathering 29.1% (Dec. 2023 39.2%).

The most important problems

Citizens consider the country’s top three problems to be: inflation/accuracy at 62.4%, health/care at 43.1% and unemployment at 29.2%. Regarding the indicators of optimism, specifically the question “how do you think things are going in general in our country”, 65% answered “Very bad-Fairly bad”, while 10.8% answered “Very good-Fairly good ». In the question “How likely do you consider a heated episode between Greece and Turkey during the next 12 months”, citizens with a percentage of 46.4% answer “very” and “fairly”.