With a single move, the Treasury locks down the Italian nature of Monte di Paschi and outlines a path which, if followed, will give life to a third large Italian banking and savings hub, through the integration between Banco Bpm, Anima and an MPS happily renovated by the managing director Luigi Lovaglio.
The sale of 15% of Siena to an industrial partner – the Banco Bpm-Anima hub which will have 9% – accompanied by two solid entrepreneurial partners – the Caltagirone group and Delfin of the Del Vecchio family, each with 3.5% – was celebrated by the stock exchange, where the three companies exceeded 20 billion in aggregate capitalisation, with more value to be extracted, according to analysts, in the event of a wedding. Rewarded is the bank led by Giuseppe Castagna, author of a ‘one-two’, the takeover bid for Anima and the attack on Mps, which brings it back to the center of the risk by protecting it from unwelcome aims, be they French (the Agricultural) or Italian (Unicredit). Both Monte, with analysts who consider the 5% share an ‘appetizer’ of a table on which a more tempting merger could be laid. But the Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, is also celebrating, author, together with the head of the Treasury Economics department, Marcello Sala, of “an Italian banking and financial policy operation aimed at strengthening the shareholding of an important player in the credit in a serious and confidential manner”. Four birds with one stone: stable Italian partners, industrial perspective, closure of accounts with Europe and a nice capital gain. A result that allows the leader of the League, Salvini, to puff out his chest: “the left had almost managed to destroy an enormous heritage like that of MPS which today instead becomes, thanks to the action of the State and orderly management, an attractive pole for large Italian investors”.
The new MPS shareholding sees the Treasury – finally free from EU constraints on the management of the share – at 11.7%, the Banco at 5%, Anima at 4% and Caltagirone and Delfin, who have already shared vision and strategies in the matches on Generali and Mediobanca, at 3.5%. “A hard core of Italian shareholders”, calls him the secretary of Fabi, Lando Maria Sileoni, who offers stability to the governance and support for the ambitions of Monte, of which Caltagirone had already been vice-president at the time of Antonveneta. There was celebration on the stock exchange: MPS rose by 11.6% to 6.16 euros and Banco by 3% to 6.97 euros. Anima was more secluded (+0.5%) while Unipol closed flat, whose interest in Monte was not cultivated by the government. The market, while taking note of the fact that Castagna intends to continue with its “stand alone” strategy, has begun to take stock. It matters little if Banco Bpm and Anima justified their intervention with a view to protecting the partnership between MPS and Anima itself, which places 16% of its funds on the Siena network, a possible future outlet also for the Banco’s product factories . Jp Morgan does not rule out the acquisition of Monte “within a year” assuming a 30% premium, cost synergies of 550 million and an accretive effect of 7% on 2026 earnings per share. For Bofa the presence of Anima increases “the “appeal” of a merger, ensuring “even higher synergies”.
The wedding, UBS insists, would allow the Bank “to consolidate its commercial presence” making it “the second largest bank” in Italy by branches, with a market share that would double to 14% and “a significant increase” in its earnings capacity. On a stand-alone basis, the two banks estimate they will close 2026 with an aggregate profit close to 3 billion, net of the tax benefits that 4.1 billion Dta guarantee to Siena. The risk heats up at a happy moment for the entire sector: S&P forecasts a still profitable 2025 for Italian banks, believed to be able to face the drop in rates.
Salvini: “MPS saved, which the left had almost destroyed”
“The left had almost succeeded in destroying an enormous heritage like that of MPS which today instead becomes, thanks to state action and orderly management, an attractive center for large Italian investors. I am very proud of it: the path was and is that right.” Thus Matteo Salvini, in a note.
Monte di Paschi: A Banking Love Story with a Twist
So, there we have it! The magical world of banking has just produced a new plot twist worthy of its own drama series! The Italian Treasury, in a move that can only be described as both sly and strategic, is laying the groundwork for a dynamic new banking and savings hub through Monte di Paschi (MPS). It’s like watching a three-part heist movie where everyone ends up winning – or at least that’s what they’re hoping! Director Luigi Lovaglio must be wearing a tux for this gala, considering the stakes and all the dancing partners involved!
It appears that the sale of a 15% stake in Siena is practically a Tinder match gone wild, with Banco Bpm, Anima, and other industrial partners engaging in a romantic waltz around the stock exchange. Congratulations, ladies and gentlemen, the three companies are now in the “over 20 billion in aggregate capitalisation” club! What’s more delightful than swimming in those hefty figures is the prospect of a wedding, or as analysts like to call it, a merger—something that could save them from those unfortunate French and Italian advances!
Now, Glynn’s favorite economist, Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti, is throwing confetti all over the place, because he, along with his colleague Marcello Sala, just pulled off a feat that makes Roman architecture look like child’s play. They’ve managed to build a new semblance of Italian banking authority while getting cozy with the EU—four birds, one stone. The state’s involvement has allowed Matteo Salvini to puff out his chest like a proud peacock, announcing that the left nearly obliterated a national treasure, but voila! With a little help from their friends (a.k.a. the state), MPS is now a magnet for serious investors!
The restructuring sees the Treasury, now liberated from EU management constraints, holding a sweet 11.7%. Meanwhile, the partners are happily trading shares like Pokémon cards: Banco Bpm at 5%, Anima at 4%, and let’s not forget about Caltagirone and Delfin, each strutting away with a 3.5% share. A hard-core group of Italian shareholders, as Fabi secretary Lando Maria Sileoni puts it, is now stable enough to weather any banking storm. In essence, we’ve got ourselves quite the nice Italian family operating MPS!
And did you catch the stock exchange reaction? MPS soared like a freshly uncorked bottle of Prosecco—up 11.6% to €6.16. Meanwhile, Banco Bpm wrapped up the evening with a roughly 3% increase, while Anima was the wallflower of the group at a meek +0.5%. Talk about a party! It’s reassuring to see that even though banks are all about mergers, some still prefer to go solo, as evidenced by Castagna’s decision to keep his “stand-alone” strategy—at least until that next big merger rears its lovely head!
Speaking of lovely heads—JP Morgan isn’t just pining over Monte. It’s whispering sweet nothings of potential acquisition within a year, boasting about a juicy 30% premium and costs synergies that could make your head spin! BofA backed that sentiment, suggesting that Anima’s presence only jazzes up the whole merger prospect. And don’t forget that UBS is out here talking about consolidating their commercial presence to become the grand master (second largest, but you know what I mean) of Italian banking!
Salvini: “MPS Saved, Which the Left Had Almost Destroyed”
“The left came close to wiping out a priceless treasure like MPS!” claims Matteo Salvini, who’s basking in glory like a sunbather on a Mediterranean beach, “Now, thanks to government intervention and orderly management, it’s an attractive center for big Italian investors.” Well, someone’s certainly enjoying the limelight; I can picture him now, sitting in a plush armchair, cornered by cameras, giving a self-congratulatory nod like he’s just delivered the most inspirational TED Talk since… well, ever!
So, there you have it, folks! With Monte di Paschi undergoing a makeover that would make even the best reality show blush, the Italian banking landscape is in a state of delightful suspense. Will the wedding bells chime? Will the love story end with a happy merger, or will it all go up in smoke like a poorly managed time-share? Only time can tell, and I, for one, can’t wait to see how this unfolds!
In a strategic maneuver, the Treasury has effectively sealed Monte di Paschi’s distinctly Italian identity and laid out a comprehensive blueprint that, if diligently executed, could breath new life into a significant third Italian banking and savings hub. This ambitious integration would unite Banco Bpm, Anima, and a rejuvenated MPS under the adept leadership of Managing Director Luigi Lovaglio, paving the way for a more robust financial ecosystem.
The recent sale of a 15% stake in Monte di Paschi, specifically targeting an industrial partner in the Banco Bpm-Anima nexus, was met with enthusiasm in the stock market. The cooperation brings together two prominent entrepreneurial entities, the Caltagirone group and Delfin, each holding a 3.5% share, thereby elevating the combined market capitalization of the trio to over 20 billion euros. Industry analysts suggest that further value enhancement is imminent should these entities solidify their partnership. This optimistic sentiment is particularly well-deserved for the bank under the stewardship of Giuseppe Castagna, who has orchestrated a bold strategy featuring a takeover bid for Anima alongside a decisive move to acquire MPS, effectively returning it to a central role in the sector while safeguarding it from possible foreign endeavors, notably from French (e.g. Agricultural Bank) and domestic competitors like Unicredit.
Moreover, Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti is reveling in this milestone, having played a pivotal role alongside Marcello Sala, head of the Treasury Economics department, in crafting “an Italian banking and financial policy operation aimed at strengthening the shareholding of an integral player in the credit sector, undertaken with seriousness and confidentiality.” This initiative has accomplished multiple objectives: securing steadfast Italian partners, fostering an industrial outlook, settling accounts with European authorities, and yielding substantial capital gains. Consequently, Matteo Salvini, leader of the League, is justifiably proud, asserting, “The left had nearly succeeded in obliterating the immense heritage that is MPS; today, thanks to the State’s intervention and organized management, it emerges as an attractive hub for major Italian investors.”
The restructured shareholding of MPS now positions the Treasury at 11.7%, Banco Bpm at 5%, Anima at 4%, and Caltagirone and Delfin at 3.5%. Lando Maria Sileoni, secretary of Fabi, aptly describes this new configuration as “a solid core of Italian shareholders” capable of reinforcing governance stability while supporting Monte’s aspirations. Celebrations erupted on the stock exchange, lifting MPS shares by an impressive 11.6% to 6.16 euros and Banco Bpm by 3% to 6.97 euros, though Anima saw modest gains of 0.5%. The focus has started to shift, with J.P. Morgan predicting a possible acquisition of Monte within a year, factoring in a premium of 30%, potential cost synergies of €550 million, and a positive effect on 2026 earnings per share estimated at 7%.
UBS has expressed that a merger would empower the Bank to “consolidate its commercial presence”, transforming it into “the second-largest bank” in Italy by branch count while doubling its market share to 14% and significantly boosting earnings capabilities. Projections indicate that, when operating independently, these two banks could collectively realize a profit nearing 3 billion by 2026, bolstered by favorable tax benefits amounting to 4.1 billion Dta for Siena. The atmosphere is buoyant as S&P forecasts a prosperous 2025 for Italian banks, suggesting they are well-equipped to navigate impending rate adjustments.
Salvini: “MPS saved, which the left had almost destroyed”
“The left had almost succeeded in destroying an enormous heritage like that of MPS which today instead becomes, thanks to state action and orderly management, an attractive center for large Italian investors. I am very proud of it: the path was and is that right.” Thus Matteo Salvini, in a note.
How does the recent stock market response to MPS’s restructuring reflect investor confidence in the Italian banking sector?
Longer faces the constraints of EU oversight, with the Italian Treasury now holding an 11.7% stake. This significant strategic move not only fortifies national control over a key banking institution but also reflects a rejuvenation of trust among Italian investors. The inclusion of Banco Bpm (5%), Anima (4%), alongside the Caltagirone and Delfin groups (each with 3.5%), hints at a well-coordinated coalition capable of withstanding economic pressures.
The stock market’s enthusiastic response to MPS’s restructuring is noteworthy, with shares jumping by 11.6% to €6.16—a clear indicator of investor confidence in the bank’s future. Banco Bpm and Anima are also benefitting from the renewed optimism, as their share prices reflect a collective upward momentum in the sector.
As banking giants like JP Morgan and BofA eye potential mergers, bolstered by the allure of significant premiums and operational synergies, the industry is experiencing a resurgence of interest in consolidating efforts. UBS’s foray into expanding its presence in Italy further elevates the stakes, positioning these banks in the race for dominance in the marketplace.
In the political arena, Matteo Salvini’s statements cast a spotlight on the ideological clash surrounding MPS. His remarks framing the left as nearly dismantling a national treasure showcase the political capital he seeks to gain from the current banking recovery narrative. Salvini’s celebration of the government’s role in MPS’s revitalization reflects a strategic positioning that may resonate with Italian voters concerned about national interests and economic stability.
Monte di Paschi’s transformative journey is unfolding against a backdrop of strategic partnerships and a reinvigorated national interest, creating a promising landscape for the future of Italian banking. The intertwining of economic recovery and political discourse will undoubtedly shape the narrative in the coming years, as all eyes remain on the evolving dynamics within this significant sector. Time will reveal whether this saga leads to a harmonious merger or another twist in the ongoing banking story.