The year 2023 has started badly for France; the country is losing ground economically, but especially diplomatically. The territories he considered annexes acquired effortlessly, simply for having been among his former colonies, have today reached such significant political maturity and economic independence that they have forged strong and diversified diplomatic, commercial relations far and wide. of France’s increasingly weak influence.
Last February, French diplomacy received a double snub in two days; two sensitive cases in North Africa are involved, writes the magazine Jeune Afrique in an article published last week. The first is Algeria’s decision to recall its ambassador to France for consultation following the repatriation to France of the Franco-Algerian activist Amira Bouraoui, convicted in Algeria and banned from leaving the territory. And for the second, Morocco’s decision to end the mission of its ambassador to France, Mohamed Benchaâboun, without replacing him. Two diplomatic slaps, therefore, that Emmanuel Macron did not see coming, which illustrate, according to the political magazine, the failure of Paris’ balancing act between Algiers and Rabat, which is interpreted by a loss of influence economy of Paris.
While relations between Paris and Algiers are usually marked by tension, the war in Ukraine and the crisis it generated prompted Macron to turn around and head for Algeria, not for his beautiful eyes, but to “catch some of his gas”. A political reconfiguration will take place following Madrid’s support for Morocco on the Sahara issue: reduction by Algeria of nearly 25% of the quantities of gas exported via the Medgaz gas pipeline, starting in May 2022. France will thus jump at the chance to reposition itself, shaking up Italy, which was the only one to benefit from this commercial repositioning following the visit of Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi to Algiers in July 2022.
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Algeria has also shown predatory pragmatism. It would be naïve to believe that Al Mouradiya would be interested in the process of appeasement of memories around the war undertaken by the Élysée is motivated rather by the need for French investments. Abdelmadjid Tebboune is eyeing a contract with TotalEnergies, the only group capable of meeting Algeria’s major investment needs. A need as huge as Algeria turns a blind eye to the adventures of the Italian company ENI, involved in numerous corruption cases with its Algerian partner Sonatrach. While waiting to obtain the partnership agreement from the French giant, “Algeria benefits very little from the surge in hydrocarbon prices, due to the explosion in internal consumption, the lack of investment in production tools and the drying up of the oil and gas fields of Hassi Messaoud and Hassi R’mel”, explains JA. A situation that casts doubt on the status of major gas exporter that Algeria would most likely lose in less than a decade.
An alternative remains, however, which revives the hope of maintaining this privilege, that of shale reserves. However, the country is faced with a major constraint: the extraction of shale gas requires heavy investment and the use of hydraulic fracture is proving complicated in a country under water stress. A not insignificant factor that forces large suppliers to turn back. “The American majors have given up on it because it would require tens of billions of dollars of investment and would only be profitable following several years, which is what the political instability in Algeria”, analyzes Jeune Afrique.
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The big step taken, drum beating, towards Algeria coupled with an unclear position with regard to the territorial integrity of Morocco, triggered an already well-present diplomatic crisis between Morocco and France. The strategic partnership, already amortized, between Rabat and Paris underlies the visa quota affair launched by the French Ministry of the Interior which set fire to the powder. Which brought out a coarse measure put adding oil to the fire. “The relationship between the two countries resided in France’s political and diplomatic support for Morocco on the Sahara issue in exchange for privileged economic ties, and in a strong presence of French companies in Morocco”, continues JA.
By its disrespectful attitude towards its first Arab-African partner, France relied too much on the historical loyalty of the Kingdom, despite the occasional blunders of an overconfident partner. But HM the King, who had already warned France that the territorial integrity of the Kingdom is a red line. The Sovereign also called on his partners to clarify their positions towards the Moroccan Sahara, following the recognition of the Moroccanness of the Sahara by the United States. But the stubbornness of the French executive has cost it its top position on almost all fronts, including trade, diplomacy and culture.
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Morocco’s economic diplomacy is so strong that it has enabled Moroccan companies, especially in the banking and insurance sectors, to hold their own once morest French companies in Africa. A diplomacy “so effective that President Emmanuel Macron mentioned it in his June 2017 speech in Morocco, where he called for “combining these African policies” between France and Morocco”.
