Moroccan public debt is expected to exceed 83% of GDP

The High Commission for Planning (HCP) has just released a note on the economic situation in 2022 and its outlook for 2023. It appears from this document that the Treasury should borrow in 2023, according to the 2023 Finance Law, nearly 130 billion dirhams once morest 105.38 billion dirhams in 2022, including more than 69 billion dirhams from internal borrowings and 60 billion dirhams from external borrowings. This should, according to HCP analysts, increase the weight of Treasury debt in relation to GDP.

Thus, the Treasury’s debt ratio should increase to 70.8% of GDP, made up of 54.6% of GDP in domestic debt and 16.3% in external debt. Taking into account the expected decline in the external debt guaranteed by the State to 12.4% of GDP in 2023 instead of 12.9% in 2022, the overall public debt ratio should reach nearly 83.2% of GDP in 2023 once morest 82.5% in 2022, predicts the HCP.

An outstanding amount of nearly 54.1% of GDP in 2022.

Since the beginning of 2022, continues the same source, the Treasury’s recourse to the internal market to cover its financing needs has exerted pressure on the primary market for Treasury bonds, which has led to an increase in the cost of debt. . Thus, the evolution of Treasury levies and reimbursements at the level of the auction market would have led to an increase in the outstanding balance of the Treasury’s domestic debt by 8.4% to reach nearly 54.1% of GDP in 2022.

To ease the pressures on the domestic market, and given the unfavorable conditions on the world markets, the HCP indicates that the Treasury has used the remainder of the LPL (Precautionary and Liquidity Line) of the IMF of 21.1 billion dirhams deposited to Bank AL Maghreb, as a budgetary resource to finance its external debt.
The Treasury would also have resorted to external financing, underlines the HCP, noting that its external debt would have recorded an increase of nearly 3.9% to reach 15.5% of GDP, down 0.4 points from its level. recorded in 2021.

Overall, underlines the same source, the total debt of the Treasury, remaining dominated by its domestic component with a share of 77.7%, would have increased to 69.6% of GDP in 2022 instead of 68.9% a year earlier. Taking into account the guaranteed external debt, representing 12.9% of GDP, the public external debt would have fallen to 28.4% of GDP in 2022. In sum, the outstanding total public debt would have remained at 82.5 % of GDP.

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